Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Taking Corbin's Good With Corbin's Bad

It’s a bases-loaded day of action on the diamond with all 30 MLB teams in action. That means there will be no shortage of options when it comes to the MLB player prop market.

It’s fade Patrick Corbin Day! Or is it? Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is on a heater, and Noah Syndergaard looks more like the God of Sparkles than the God of Thunder since dawning Dodger Blue this season. 

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, May 9.

MLB props for May 9

• Witt Over 1.5 total bases
• Syndergaard Over 4.5 hits allowed
• Corbin Over 4.5 Ks + Over 5.5 hits allowed

Picks made on 5/9/2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Back to the Bobby well

It looks like another long season is on tap for the Kansas City Royals but at least the team knows it won’t have to worry about the shortstop position for a long time. Bobby Witt Jr. is the real deal and he is on a heater coming into tonight’s matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox.

It is just Witt’s second full Big League season and he already looks like a future superstar and after a bit of a slow start to his 2023 campaign, Witt is starting to lock in.

The Royals’ shortstop is in the midst of a six-game hitting streak where he has a .310 batting average and a .954 OPS and four extra-base hits. Witt has a great opportunity to keep that going tonight against White Sox’s starter Lucas Giolito.

Giolito is one of the few White Sox players who has settled down after a rough start to the season but Witt could still prove to be a tough matchup for the right-hander.

Giolito uses his fastball nearly 50% of the time this season and Witt has a .280 expected batting average and a .545 expected slugging percentage against fastballs this season. Witt is also 3-for-9 with a double and a home run in his career against Giolito. That’s good for a .640 xSlugging percentage.

And if Giolito is somehow unable to go deep into this game that means he hands the ball over to a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA and WHIP, and dead last in opponent batting average.

Witt has gone Over 1.5 total bases five times during this six-game hitting streak. I think he makes it six of seven vs. Giolito and the Pale Hose tonight.

Bobby Witt Jr. Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Prop bet #2: Trouble in Paradise

The Los Angeles Dodgers were hoping Thor would find the hammer that made him so dominant in New York when they signed him this offseason, but much like the film Love and Thunder, Noah Syndergaard has fallen flat.

Yes, things have not gone as planned for Syndergaard in Dodger Blue. The right-hander is pitching to an expected ERA of 4.65, allowing opponents to hit for a .283 expected batting average, and he isn’t striking out anyone. Not to mention guys are running wild on him still (Christian Yelich's Over 0.5 stolen bases is also worth a look tonight).

That doesn’t bode well heading into tonight’s matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew have closed the gap with the  Pirates at the top of the NL Central to just a half-game. While you always know the pitching will be there for Milwaukee, it’s the hitting that’s starting to come around, particularly against right-handed pitchers.

The Brewers rank ninth in batting average and 11th in OPS when facing righties this season. They are also one of the most patient teams at the plate, ranking fifth in walk-to-strikeout rate. That makes things even tougher on Syndergaard, who spends most of his time pitching in the strike zone. 

Syndergaard is giving up a whopping 12.8 hits per nine innings over his last five starts and has surrendered at least five hits in each of those games. I’m betting the Brew Crew keeps that trend going tonight.

Noah Syndergaard Prop: Over 4.5 hits allowed (-130)

Prop bet #3: Mix and match

Is Patrick Corbin in a groove? I know it seems crazy, but the much-maligned Washington Nationals starter has actually strung together some good outings. So, how can a savvy baseball bettor take advantage of this normally auto-fade spot when Corbin takes the ball tonight against the San Francisco Giants?

Well, for starters, Corbin is pitching to a 3.70 ERA over his last four starts. This is shocking enough on its own, but it means he’s been pitching deeper into ball games. In fact, since his season-opening start which lasted just three innings, he’s pitched six innings or more in four of his last six games and no fewer than five in each outing.

Pitching longer into games means more opportunities for a few things. Let’s start with strikeouts: Corbin’s K-rate isn’t great, but he's recorded six strikeouts in two of his last three starts. Tonight, he faces a Giants team that has the second-highest K-rate in baseball (29.6%) when facing left-handed pitching this season.

More innings also mean more opportunities for the Giants to get knocks. Despite the perceived improvements from Corbin, he is still getting hit a lot. His .313 opponent expected batting average is in the Bottom 5% of MLB. 

Corbin has surrendered 7+ hits in five of his seven starts this season and while San Francisco isn’t an elite hitting team, it has bumped its batting average up to .249 over the last 12 games.

So, what does this all mean? A little same game parlay of course. Taking the Over 4.5 strikeouts and the 5.5 hits allowed for Corbin comes in at a cool +240. Those numbers are achievable for Corbin in a good or bad start. So, it’s not a traditional fade on Patrick Corbin Day but this is a solid play in this matchup.

Patrick Corbin Prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts + Over 5.5 hits allowed (+240 at bet365)

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