It's a classic getaway day in MLB, which means action on the diamond all day long and of course plenty of baseball betting options in the player prop market.
Marlins starter Pablo Lopez has a good chance to silence the Cardinals' bats while Cubs rookie sensation Seiya Suzuki will look to keep up his hot start, and even though they're struggling, can the Rangers pose a problem for Marco Gonzales and the Mariners?
Check out our best MLB player prop picks for Thursday, April 21.
MLB props for April 21
Picks made on 4/21/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Lopez keeps Cardinals caged
Miami Marlins starter Pablo Lopez has picked up where he left off last year, allowing just one earned run on seven hits in 10 1-3 innings pitched over his first two starts this season. But the scary part is, you can make the case he hasn’t had his best stuff yet. He'll look to find that stuff when he and the Fish host the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday night.
Lopez has been finding a little too much of the zone with his fastball early on, but that is something that will come with more innings pitched, and you can’t argue with the results thus far.
Now, he gets a matchup against a Cardinals team that hits a mediocre .228 with a .669 OPS when facing right-handed pitching this season. The Cards also have the sixth-worst expected batting average overall this season.
Lopez also made one start against the Cardinals last season, surrendering just three hits in 6 2-3 innings of work. Bet on him to keep the Red Birds’ bats quiet in this one.
Pick: Pablo Lopez Under 4.5 hits allowed (-130)
Suzuki sensation
It’s not even May and it feels like Seiya Suzuki already has the National League Rookie of the Year wrapped up. Well, maybe not, but there is no denying the Chicago Cubs have something special in their Japanese-born right-fielder, and he’ll look to stay hot when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday.
For those who don’t know, Suzuki is a 27-year-old outfielder who has been playing pro ball in Japan since he was 18 and hit .315 with a .985 OPS while whacking 182 dingers in the NPB. And so far, that stick has translated to the MLB.
Suzuki is hitting .387 with a 1.404 OPS with four homers in his short time with the Cubs. He also has a great eye at the plate, showing he doesn’t swing at bad pitches.
Tonight, he faces Pirates starter, Bryse Wilson. The right-hander has surrendered five runs on nine hits with four walks in 8 1-3 innings of work so far this season. That translates to an expected ERA of 8.03 and an opponent expected batting average of .346.
It’s hard to figure out why we are getting plus money like this on Suzuki’s total bases prop today, particularly considering he’s hit .444 with a 1.426 OPS against right-handers and has gone Over this number six times in the last nine games he’s started.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Rangers get to Gonzales
It has been an up-and-down start to the season for Seattle Mariners starter Marco Gonzales and while he seemingly gets a good matchup tonight against the struggling Texas Rangers, the game may not be as easy as it looks on paper.
The Rangers made a ton of noise this offseason, signing guys like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien for big dollars. And the offense is doing well, ranking sixth in scoring, but, what they didn’t do is address their pitching, which has allowed an AL-most 69 runs thus far. As a result, they've stumbled out of the gates with a 2-9 record.
But those bats should play today against Gonzales. While the lefty is coming off a solid outing against the Astros (who frankly have been terrible at the plate so far this season), he still owns an expected ERA of 5.90 with an opponent expected batting average of .296, and while the Rangers can’t stop anyone from scoring, they still smash southpaws.
Texas ranks third in the MLB in batting average, OPS, and home runs when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. So, we’re betting that the Rangers make some solid contact against Gonzales tonight, resulting in him landing over his hits allowed total.
Pick: Marco Gonzales Over 5.5 hits allowed (+115)
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