It's Opening Day, let's kick this season off with a bang. The MLB player props market is booming and there are plenty of options available. The key is finding which players are going to provide the most value since we don't have any data relative to the current season (and it's never smart to put too much faith in spring numbers).
We've got Shane Bieber kicking off the season against a pesky Kansas City Royals lineup, but we don't expect him to struggle. After him, we'll look at a pair of talented young outfielders in good positions to return value at the dish today.
Here are our best free MLB player prop picks for Opening Day. Enjoy the games.
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MLB props for April 7
Picks made on 4/8/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Bieber fever is back!
Shane Bieber missed a large chunk of the 2021 season due to a shoulder injury. He made two starts in September after being shelved since June 13, so maybe Bieber looks like a risky play in his first start of the 2022 campaign, but his strikeouts total set for Thursday's Opening Day start is too low and value can be found.
The Cleveland Guardians ace is one of baseball's premier arms and strikeout masters. In his Cy Young-winning 2020 season, he fanned 122 batters in 77 1/3 innings (14.2 K/9, 41.1 K%). It was more of the same in 2021, punching out opponents at a 33.1% clip for a 12.5 K/9.
The 26-year-old is fully healthy entering the season and even if he is on something of a pitch count to ease him back into the swing of things, Bieber can easily eclipse 6.5 strikeouts. Bieber opened the 2021 season with double-digit strikeouts in each of his first four starts and five of his first six. He didn't fan fewer than seven until his 10th start of the season on May 22.
The Royals struck out at one of the lowest rates in baseball (21%) as a team last year, which may be lending to the reluctance around Bieber today, thanks largely to contact machine Whit Merrifield and veteran slugger Carlos Santana rarely going down on strikes. Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier, and Michael A. Taylor each struck out in more than 27% of their plate appearances a year ago and they weren't always facing pitchers of Bieber's caliber.
The only real risk of Bieber failing to exceed this modest total is the forecast with rain a possibility at Kauffman Stadium around gametime. Still, this number is too good to pass up unless it's a downpour.
Most books are hovering between -105 and -120 on Bieber going Over 6.5 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals today, but BetMGM was still rolling with that same total at +100 as of this morning. If that evaporates, shop around and find the best odds still available and hammer Bieber.
Pick: Shane Bieber Over 6.5 strikeouts (+100)
He's a bad mother Tucker
Kyle Tucker started slowly in 2021 but eventually emerged as one of the best young hitters in the game. After an opening month where he slashed .181/.238/.372, Tucker hit .320/.387/.600 the rest of the way.
He scored 71 times in that stretch despite rarely batting near the top of the lineup. This spring, the Astros have slotted Tucker into the two-hole, which would do wonders for his chances at coming home. If he bats second, he'll have Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, and Michael Brantley all champing at the bit to drive him in. And his runs scored prop of Over 0.5 is available at +130.
The lefty-swinging Tucker also hit 37 doubles in 2021 (ninth in MLB), giving him even greater chances at scoring on a single.
Now, the fly in the ointment may appear to be Los Angeles Angels starter Shohei Ohtani, but there are a couple of reasons why that shouldn't be a deterrent. First, Ohtani rarely goes super deep in his starts, which exposes an Angels bullpen to Houston's potent lineup. With teams carrying extra arms to open the season (28-man rosters instead of 25), there's no reason to expect L.A. to push it with the reigning AL MVP this early.
Second, the Astros lineup is one of baseball's best from top to bottom even after losing George Springer and Carlos Correa to free agency in back-to-back offseasons. While you can't put too much stock in Tucker's small sample size against Ohtani (2-for-5 with a home run), his hit tool has been touted as one of the best since he was a prospect.
And if the Angels turn to a left-handed reliever to counter him, they'll be in for a rude awakening. Tucker hit .286 against southpaws in 202 plate appearances last year, so you can't count on traditional splits.
There is a lot of value to be had here. Don't doubt Tucker against an Angels pitching staff that still has to prove itself after years of underperforming.
Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 runs scored (+130)
Drive my Carlson
The St. Louis Cardinals open the season in front of the home crowd against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates and Opening Day starter JT Brubaker. The 28-year-old right-hander doesn't blow batters away like many of his contemporaries, owning a 9.34 K/9 and 24% strikeout rate in 124 1/3 innings last season. The Cardinals will capitalize.
I'm focusing on sophomore outfielder Dylan Carlson. The switch-hitting 23-year-old struggled at times in his rookie campaign but still hit .266 (.277 in the second half). Only eventual NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India hit more doubles among first-year players in the Senior Circuit than Carlson's 31.
The Cardinals have also used Carlson primarily as a leadoff hitter this spring, so he should get extra plate appearances against a frankly depressing Pirates pitching staff.
Plus, because he doesn't yet have the name recognition of teammates Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado — or even Tyler O'Neill — his odds to record Over 1.5 total bases are more appealing to bettors at +140 compared to around +125 or +120 for the aforementioned trio.
With his leadoff potential boosting the amount of ABs he gets, Carlson is one of the best bets on Opening Day. The only caveat, like with Bieber above, is the rain in the forecast. Fortunately, if there is a delay it's less likely Carlson gets lifted when play resumes where a pitcher would almost certainly get the hook.
Pick: Dylan Carlson Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
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