There are a ton of great pitchers taking the hill tonight in MLB action, and we're targeting a couple of them to come away with wins in our player prop picks for Tuesday, August 23.
Not to make it all pitching-focused, Julio Rodriguez can be counted on to make another offensive splash in a favorable matchup at home.
MLB props for August 23
Picks made on 8/23/2022 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Julio Rodriguez and Nelson Cruz each Over 1.5 total bases BOOSTED to +400 at Caesars! Claim Now
B) Justin Verlander and Max Fried each Over 6.5 strikeouts BOOSTED to +390 at Caesars! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Live Fried or die
Max Fried is clockwork. A recent concussion scare had people worried, but he emerged from that brief respite by limiting the New York Mets to two earned runs over seven solid innings. Fried has made 23 starts on the season and failed to complete six innings just four times.
Tonight, he draws a Pittsburgh Pirates offense that strikes out the second most vs. left-handers while boasting a wRC+ of 83, which ranks second worst in the National League. Fried is not a strikeout guy (8.24 K/9, 22.9% strikeout rate) but this simply illustrates how overmatched Pittsburgh is against the southpaw.
Fried struck out eight Pirates over six solid innings back in June but eight hits against him forced him to bow out a tad early. One of the primary culprits, Ke'Bryan Hayes, is on the injured list and won't be available to do damage tonight.
The Braves could be looking for some length from Fried tonight, too, after using their three best relievers (A.J. Minter, Raisel Iglesias, and Kenley Jansen) a night ago in a 2-1 victory over these Pirates. There's a case to be made that Atlanta may want to rest its ace with the postseason around the corner and facing a bum Pittsburgh lineup, but its also in the thick of the NL East race, so every win counts.
With the Braves heavily favored to win on the moneyline (between -263 and -280), I like to instead target Fried to come away with the W himself. This line has some wild variance depending where you look, with it as high as -275 at BetMGM at the time of this writing. Meanwhile, it's still available at DraftKings at a more reasonable -115.
Atlanta boasts a Top-10 offense vs. right-handers and should be able to handle Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker, particularly with the likes of Matt Olson and Michael Harris each owning an OPS above .855 vs. right-handers on the season.
I also like Fried to eclipse 18.5 outs recorded (-120 at Caesars) should the value disappear on the pitcher win prop.
Max Fried Prop: To record a win (-115 at DraftKings)
Verlander for the win
There are a few reasons why Houston Astros veteran Justin Verlander leads the majors with 15 wins.
First, he's completed six innings or more in 19 of his 22 starts. He goes deep into games more often than not, positioning himself to earn the decision nearly every time he takes the mound.
Second, he's not simply an innings-eater. The betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young award has bounced back from Tommy John surgery with aplomb, notching a 1.95 ERA over 143 frames.
Third, he pitches in front of one of the American League's most potent offenses. The Astros are second in runs scored and home runs with 565 and 166, respectively. Their 113 wRC+ ranks third in the AL, showing they can hit anywhere.
This combination has allowed him to come away with a win in nearly 70% of his starts this year. One of these came against tonight's opponents, the Minnesota Twins, whom he limited to one hit over eight scoreless innings back in May.
The Astros are even loftier favorites on the moneyline than the Braves are behind Fried tonight, and the Twins are certainly a better team than the Pirates. The last thing that is really in Houston's favor is that Minnesota is deploying right-hander Aaron Sanchez to oppose Verlander.
Sanchez, who recently joined the Twins after being released by the Nationals, did fine in his Minnesota debut, scattering two runs on four hits over five innings against the Tigers.
But he was cut loose by the lowly Nationals for a reason. He posted a 8.33 ERA while allowing six home runs over 31 1-3 innings. Houston's offense is much more potent than Detroit's, and that should help make up the difference for Verlander to pad his numbers.
Justin Verlander Prop: To record a win (+102 at DraftKings)
In J-Rod we trust
Julio Rodriguez continues to stake his claim over all other rookies as he builds on his impressive debut campaign. He's batting .274/.332/.474 with a 134 wRC+, 19 home runs, 19 doubles, and 23 stolen bases. And he's done most of his damage since the start of May once he really got going after a rough April.
Tonight, he takes on the Washington Nationals and right-hander Erick Fedde. Formerly a top prospect in his own right, Fedde has never risen to the status of star pitcher that may once have been expected. This year, the 29-year-old boasts an unsightly 4.95 ERA in 92 2-3 innings across 19 starts.
His 6.80 K/9 is troubling in that he doesn't miss bats and he serves up a ton of hard contact as a result, ranking in the ninth percentile of all pitchers. He has no deception on his pitches, either, factoring into the first percentile in chase rate. Basically, batters lay off his pitches until he gets into hitters' counts and serves up a tasty meatball.
Rodriguez is his worst nightmare. The rookie ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. He also possesses one of the fastest sprint speeds in baseball, which helps his stolen base potential while also enhancing his ability to stretch singles into doubles.
J-Rod also doesn't suffer much of a handedness disadvantage vs. fellow righties as he's batting .272 with a .804 OPS and 133 wRC+ against them.
A stint on the IL didn't derail his numbers, either. Since returning from injury on Aug. 12, Rodriguez is batting .295 and has three three-hit games.
Julio Rodriguez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $65.53 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
