It’s getaway day in MLB and you know what that means... baseball prop bets all day long! With six matinee matchups to begin the day, we go digging for betting value early before diving into the rest of today’s schedule.
Can Eric Lauer lead the Milwaukee Brewers to an early lead against the Kansas City Royals? Will Boston Red Sox starter Garrett Richards be in another sticky situation when he takes on the powerful Toronto Blue Jays lineup?
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Wednesday, July 21.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Brewers -0.5 Five-Inning Runline (-115)
Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta get all the headlines for the National League Central-leading Brewers when it comes to pitching. But having Lauer as the No. 4 in your rotation ain’t too shabby. The lefty will take the mound when the Brew Crew host the Royals in a matinee matchup.
The Brewers lefty has been mostly excellent this season outside of a three-start hiccup in the middle of the first half. But Lauer enters this game having pitched to a 1.93 ERA over his last four starts, limiting opponents to a .188 batting average during that stretch.
Next up for Lauer is the Royals. K.C. struggles to score, ranking 23rd in runs per game, and it has really had its issues at the dish over the last month or so. Over the last 30 days (23 games) the Royals have scored the third-fewest runs and rank 27th in OPS.
Countering Lauer is Brad Keller. The right-hander has put together great starts in consecutive outings but still owns a 5.97 ERA with opponents hitting a big .309 off him. Now he faces a Brewers lineup that has been much better lately, ranking eighth in batting average and sixth in OPS over the last 30 days.
Bet Lauer and the Brew Crew to have the lead through five.
Garrett Richards Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
It has been a sticky situation for Richards ever since MLB started its crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances. The right-hander’s RPMs are way down since early June and the struggles are evident. And now he must face a team in the Blue Jays that has had his number all season long.
Richards has been lit up for a 7.11 ERA over his last seven starts while opponents are hitting a big .361 off him, and he is giving up nearly 7.5 hits per start. That doesn’t bode well against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks third in scoring, second in batting average, and first in OPS.
The Jays have also seen the ball well out of Richards’ hand, sticky stuff or not this season. Toronto has gotten to the Boston starter for 10 runs on 22 hits while drawing 12 walks in 16 2-3 innings of work over three starts.
With that in mind, and the fact Richards has given up six or more hits in eight of his last 12 starts, the Jays are a great bet to send him Over his hit total once again.
Cubs-Cardinals Five-Inning Total Under 4.5 (-125)
The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals have one of the most storied rivalries in baseball and usually when they meet post-All-star break you expect there to be some sort of postseason implications. But not this year.
With both the Cubs and Cards seven games behind the Brewers for the lead in the National League Central, little more than pride is on the line in this series. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t some betting value to be found as Kyle Hendricks toes the rubber against Adam Wainwright.
Hendricks has been mostly solid this season after a rough start. In 14 starts since May 1, Hendricks is pithing to a 2.65 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. That includes three starts against St. Louis this season where he has a 2.37 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
The veteran Wainwright has also been solid this season, posting a 3.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. And he dominated the Cubbies in his one start against them this season, shutting them out on just one hit over eight innings back on May 23.
But what makes us really like this bet is that both teams are just awful at hitting right-handers. The Cardinals rank 23rd in batting average and 25th in OPS when it comes to hitting righties while the Cubs are dead last in batting average and 24th in OPS.
When you add in the fact these teams rank 20th and 27th in scoring, we love this one to be low-scoring early on.
MLB betting card for July 21
- Brewers -0.5 Five-Inning RL (-115)
- Garrett Richards Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
- CHC-STL Under 4.5 Five-Inning Total (-125)
Picks made on 7/21/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET
MLB parlays
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