The dog days of summer are officially here. That means even more time to focus on MLB player prop bets. And with nine games on the board, there is plenty of baseball betting value to be found.
Today, we focus on another slumping Blue Jays starter, a Bottom Feeder raking against right-handers, and — of course — your weekly PSA about fading Noah Syndergaard with stolen bases props.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Monday, June 27, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.
MLB props for June 27
Picks made on 6/27/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Red-hot Red Sox feast on chilly Gausman
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a bit of a tailspin, losing seven of their last 10 games, and falling to fourth place in the American League East. And one of the teams to pass them is tonight’s opponent, the Boston Red Sox.
A big reason for the Jays’ struggles is that the starting pitching has been, for the most part, a massive disappointment. Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi have both been plagued by short starts and own ERA’s over five and now even tonight’s starter, Kevin Gausman is regressing after a hot start to the season.
The right-hander has a 5.50 ERA over four June starts, not getting through four innings twice. He is not elevating his fastball enough, meaning opposing hitters can lay off his devastating splitter and just look for the heater. As a result, Gausman is getting hit hard, and often, surrendering a .269 expected batting average to opponents.
Now, he’s got to deal with a red-hot Red Sox lineup. Boston has basically been on fire at the plate since the middle of May and enters this game as winners of seven in a row. Everyone knew the cold start for an offense this talented wouldn’t last and now they rank second in batting average and eighth in OPS when facing right-handed pitchers for the season.
The BoSox have also totaled 11 hits in 14 innings against Gausman this season, and that was when they were ice cold. With Gausman giving up six or more hits in 11 of his 14 starts, including the last five in a row, getting plus money for it to happen against this hot Red Sox team is a solid bet.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
Bangin' with Mr. Cooper
Is St. Louis Cardinals’ starter Adam Wainwright finally starting to show his age in his age-40 season? Well, the Miami Marlins are sure hoping so when they dig in against the right-hander on Monday night.
Now, the Marlins live up to their Bottom Feeders nickname when it comes to facing left-handed pitching, but they are surprisingly strong when going against righties, ranking fifth in batting average and seventh in OPS. And no Marlins player has contributed more than Garrett Cooper.
The 31-year-old is finally getting a chance to play every day and is making the most of his opportunity. Cooper is hitting .307 with a .824 OPS this season and has been a doubles machine, whacking 16 so far, which is one of the reasons why we like his total bases prop so much today.
And now he gets to go against a fading Wainwright. The right-hander is pitching to a ho-hum 4.24 expected ERA but he is giving up a .273 expected batting average to opponents this season. It comes down to the fact he just doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff anymore.
That might not play well against a guy hitting .363 in June and hitting .316 versus right-handers this season. And while Cooper is just 1-for-4 in his career versus Wainwright, that lone hit is, you guessed it, a double. We’re getting too much value here.
Pick: Garrett Cooper Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
Keep hammering Thor with stolen bases
Welcome to your weekly PSA about Noah Syndergaard giving up stolen bases. No one has allowed more this season than the Los Angeles Angels right-hander, and while sometimes it can be hard to figure out which opponent to back to swipe a bag, today, it's smacking us in the face.
Thor has surrendered 18 stolen bases this season, which is seven more than the next closest pitcher, and has given up at least one in nine of his 11 starts.
This has been a problem for Syndergaard dating back to his time with the Mets, due to a slow and deliberate delivery.
Now, he has to deal with the Chicago White Sox – a team that is not usually known for its speed on the basepaths, but Luis Robert is definitely giving us some value. The Pale Hose’s outfielder is a perfect eight-for-eight on stolen bases this season.
It doesn’t hurt that Robert has been on fire this month and getting on base at a great clip. Robert is hitting .303 in June with a .330 on-base percentage while also swiping five bags. So, if Robert gets on base tonight, look for him to be aggressive with Syndergaard on the mound.
Pick: Luis Robert to steal a base (+400)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $242.00 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
