Today’s MLB Prop Picks: 18 Games Brings Plenty of Market Value

It’s an absolutely loaded day of action on the diamond. Thanks to a few double headers there are a whopping 18 games for baseball bettors to dive into. That means there will be no shortage of options in the player prop market.

Tonight, we look at Jose Ramirez to break out of his mini-slump, we pick on poor Spenser Watkins with the unenviable task of trying to slow down the Bronx Bombers, and J.T. Brubaker will look to continue his strong play against the Cubs.

Check out our MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, May 17, as we bank on some of baseball's best to do their thing.

MLB props for May 17

• Ramirez Over 1.5 TB (+110)
• Watkins Over 5.5 hits allowed (+128)
• Brubaker Over 4.5 Ks (-134)

Picks made on 5/17/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Run it up Ramirez

You could say Jose Ramirez is in a bit of a slump by his standards, but the Cleveland Guardians third baseman will get a great chance to bust out of it when he and his teammates take on the lowly Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night.

Ramirez has cooled off after a red-hot start. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting just .205 with a .670 OPS, but still has at least one hit in seven of those games, so it’s not all bad. Overall, he is still hitting .290 with a .967 OPS and you know another hot streak is just a few swings away.

It might be even closer than we think as the Reds hand the ball to 28-year-old rookie Connor Overton. Like most of the Reds pitchers, it has been a tough start to the 2022 campaign for Overton.

While the right hander has an OK expected ERA of 4.94, he doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses and is getting hit hard as a result. He ranks in the bottom 5% of MLB in hard-hit percentage and is giving up an expected batting average of .313 to opposing teams.

And while Overton has done a good job of pitching deep into games, he’ll eventually have to hand the ball off to a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA and WHIP.

A fun stat is that half of Ramirez’s hits are for extra bases. He’s also hitting .348 with a 1.134 OPS when facing righties this season, making the Over on his total bases prop at plus money a good value.

Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at Caesars)

Watkins gets walloped

It feels a little like poor Baltimore Orioles starter Spenser Watkins is being thrown to the wolves when he takes the mound tonight against the visiting New York Yankees.

The Yankees continue to destroy everything in their path. They've notched wins in seven of their last eight to improve their record to an incredible 26-9 while living up to their Bronx Bombers nickname in the process, leading MLB with 52 dingers. 

Now, going into my process today, it looked like I was going to pick on Watkins in this matchup. But the question was with which Yankee to back? Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are obliterating baseballs, Anthony Rizzo and D.J. LeMahieu continue to be solid, and Josh Donaldson is quietly mashing. Heck, even Joey Gallo is starting to hit.

So, the answer is all of the above, and to take Watkins to go Over his hits allowed prop at plus money.

The 29-year-old right hander is getting hit hard and often this season. He is pitching to an xERA of 6.72, surrendering an expected slugging percentage of .597 to opponents, and has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Not a good combination against this slugging Yanks squad.

Watkins has surrendered seven or more hits in each of his last two starts and 20 over his last 13 innings pitched. The big fear here is that Watkins gets knocked around so badly that he doesn’t last long enough to allow six or more hits. But at this plus money, it’s worth the risk.

Pick: Spenser Watkins Over 5.5 hits allowed (+128 at FanDuel)

Brubaker on point

Over the past couple of seasons, it has been the Pittsburgh Pirates who have been the laughingstock of baseball. But with the Cincinnati Reds taking up that mantle this year, the Buccos can just go about their business of being mostly bad.

But quietly, some of their players have put up some solid numbers early on this season, including today’s starter J.T. Brubaker. He’ll look to keep that going when he and the Pirates take on the division rival Chicago Cubs.

The righty hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start over his last five outings, resulting in an xERA of 3.95, and he's limiting opposing teams to an xBA of .227. Brubaker is also striking out batters at a higher rate than at any point in his career — punching out 33 hitters in 30 1-3 innings pitched — and he’ll look to keep that up against the Cubbies, a matchup he has loved.

Brubaker owns a 2.77 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while striking out 30 batters in 27 innings over six games (five starts). That includes giving up just one earned run on three hits while striking out four in a short three-inning outing back on April 24. 

This means he is striking out over a batter an inning this season, and that should continue tonight against the Cubs. Chicago ranks 26th in MLB in strikeout percentage when facing right-handed pitchers and their 8.91 strikeouts per game rank 23rd. 

Brubaker has been solid and has pitched at least five innings in four of his last five starts. He should get to that mark again facing a team that ranks 20th in OPS when facing right-handed pitching and go Over his strikeout number in the process.

Pick: JT Brubaker Over 4.5 strikeouts (-134 at FanDuel)

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