You won’t have to look too hard for things to bet on today, as there’s some postseason action in the NBA and NHL, as well as the PGA Championship.
Covers has analysis on all of the above, but we’re also looking closely at a loaded MLB schedule, and not only are we previewing games from a traditional standpoint — with moneylines, spreads and totals — but we’re also diving into player props.
Yesterday, we accurately predicted that a struggling Mike Zunino would get a base hit — and that hit was a homer, which we also said was worth sprinkling on at +370. Now, we’re looking to feed you some winners on what should be a great Saturday in sports.
MLB props for May 21
Picks made on 5/21/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Bieber fever
In Bieber’s last trip to the mound, the 26-year-old struck out seven batters in six innings of one-run ball in what was ultimately a win over the Minnesota Twins. It was a big way for the ace to respond from a game in which he gave up seven earned runs and didn’t strike out a single batter in a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on May 7.
The righty now faces a Detroit Tigers team that has lost three games in a row and has scored only one run in each of those contests. This Tigers offense is really struggling at the moment, and the team also happens to be 10th in the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this year. With that in mind, it isn’t hard to like Bieber’s chances of turning in an excellent outing.
Bieber only needs seven strikeouts in order for this prop to hit and he's racked up at least seven in three of his last five starts. He also had 24 strikeouts over just two starts against the Tigers last season, so it’s not like this matchup will intimidate him. His stuff should be hard for Detroit to overcome.
Pick: Shane Bieber Over 6.5 strikeouts (-110)
Arenado bounces back
After back-to-back hitless games, Arenado has to feel really good about his chances of turning in a big performance against Jose Quintana. The lefty is having a resurgent year for the Pittsburgh Pirates right now, but it’s really hard to trust that this level is sustainable.
Quintana has a 2.19 ERA this season, but this is the first time in five years that the southpaw’s ERA hasn't been over 4.00, and things got so bad for him last year that he wasn’t even starting games as a member of the San Francisco Giants.
Arenado, meanwhile, has homered twice in just 12 at-bats against Quintana in his career, so he should be able to come through with a big hit in this game — or just two singles. Arenado has also crushed lefties throughout the course of his career.
While his career numbers against righties have him with a .279 batting average, .513 slugging percentage, 229 doubles, and 194 homers in 3,636 at-bats, he has done more damage in fewer appearances against lefties. In 1,217 at-bats, Arenado has a .316 batting average, while also having a .605 slugging percentage, 79 doubles, and 84 homers.
Overall, it just isn’t hard to see a scenario in which Arenado makes something happen at the plate against Quintana. Arenado is due for a nice performance at the plate, and Quintana is due for a regression to the mean.
Pick: Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Walsh this way
Walsh is one of the most dangerous hitters the Los Angeles Angels have, but that’s really only true when the lefty slugger gets to face right-handed pitching. The 28-year-old has a career .296 batting average in 588 at-bats against righties, compared to a .200 average in 260 career at-bats against southpaws. Fortunately for Los Angeles, there’s a righty on the mound for the Oakland Athletics tonight.
Frankie Montas is having a solid year for the A’s in 2022, as he has a 3.67 ERA in eight starts. He also just pitched six innings of two-run ball against this Los Angeles team on May 15. Walsh went hitless in that contest, but that was in Oakland. Now, the lefty slugger gets another crack at a guy he’ll be prepared to face, and he’ll do so at Angel Stadium, where he has been a bit better this season.
This matchup is definitely one that has given Walsh trouble in the past, but it’s only a matter of time before he cracks it. We like his chances to do it tonight, especially given his favorable odds to just come through with one hit. He can go 1-for-5 with four strikeouts, which would be a miserable game, and you’d still come through if he’s able to poke one to the outfield.
Pick: Jared Walsh over 0.5 hits (-161)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $50.42 on a $10 bet?
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