Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Brubaker Should Have Best Start Yet

What a way to kick off the weekend. It is a loaded Friday night on the diamond with 14 games on the MLB schedule. This means plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.

We find yet another way to fade the Reds, Orioles' outfielder Cedric Mullins to stay hot at the plate, and for Kevin Gausman to continue his dominance on the mound as a Blue Jay.

Check out our MLB player prop picks for Friday, May 6.

MLB props for May 6

• Brubaker Over 4.5 strikeouts (-102)
• Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
• Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+108)

Picks made on 5/06/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Capitalize on Reds' woes

Obviously, the list of things that are wrong with the Reds is incredibly long. They are now 3-22 for the season and 19 of those 22 losses have been by two runs or more. Heck, the Bengals have more wins than the Reds do this calendar year. 

But today we will focus on their troubles at the plate. They rank dead last in the National League in scoring, plating just 79 runs this year and a big reason for that is because they strike out at a massive rate. Their 10.09 punchouts per game are the worst in the MLB while they also rank dead last in K% (26.5%). 

Now, JT Brubaker isn’t a huge strikeout guy but he has punched out 21 in 20 1-3 innings this season and has arguably gotten better with each start he has made. He also had 15 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched against the Reds last season.

If Brubaker is able to last five innings against a team that has a .203 batting average and a .596 OPS when facing right-handers this season, he should go Over his strikeout total of 4.5.

Pick: JT Brubaker Over 4.5 strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)

Mullins showing flashes of last year

After a slow start to the season, Baltimore Orioles’ all-star outfielder Cedric Mullins is starting to find his timing at the plate and he’ll look to keep swinging a hot stick when the O’s open a weekend series with the Kansas City Royals on Friday night.

Mullins was hitting just .195 through the Orioles' first 20 games but has really started to find his stroke over the last week or so. The lefty is in the midst of a six-game hitting streak where he is hitting .395 with a 1.177 OPS, which includes him getting six extra-base hits.

Friday, he’ll get a good chance to keep that streak going when he faces off against the Royals’ Carlos Hernandez. 

It has been a rough start to the 2022 campaign for the 25-year-old right-hander. Hernandez has an expected ERA of 6.47, while opponents are getting to him for a .313 expected batting average over his first four starts of the season. He has also allowed 24 hits in 18 innings pitched.

With Mullins coming off a season where he hit .299 of right-handers, and currently in a stretch where he has gone Over 1.5 total bases in five of his last six games, he looks like a great bet to do so once again.

Pick: Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at Caesars)

Gas-Man racks up K's

Kevin Gausman’s tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays couldn’t have gotten off to a better start. The right-hander has been fantastic over the first month of the season and he’ll look to keep dealing as the Jays continue their series with the Cleveland Guardians.

Gausman has looked close to unhittable at times over his first five starts. He is pitching to an expected ERA of 2.68 with a WHIP of 0.98. Oh, and he has yet to walk a batter this season. But it’s Gausman’s splitter that looks more devastating than ever. 

Thanks to that pitch, Gausman is in the 100th percentile in chase rate and 92nd percentile in whiff rate, resulting in him racking up 41 batters in 31 2-3 innings pitched.

Here are his strikeout totals over his last four games: nine, eight, nine, and 10.

And while Cleveland ranks a solid ninth in strikeouts per game, all four of those results came to teams that ranked 15th or better.

The Guardians and their hot bats may be able to get a few knocks off Gausman, but you can bet he’ll have that splitter working again tonight and eclipse a strikeout total number he’s gone Over by at least two in each of his last four starts.

Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+108 at FanDuel)

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