It's a glorious Thursday in September with a wide array of baseball games starting in the early afternoon and taking us deep into the night. With so many options ahead of us, we're spreading the love across the slate with our three favorite player prop picks.
Today, we're focusing exclusively on pitcher performance by targeting a beleaguered southpaw to pitch deep into his start and for another lefty to mow down his opponents. Finally, we're looking at the presumptive AL Cy Young favorite to simply pick up a W (and giving a bonus pick for one of his teammates).
Here are our favorite MLB player prop picks for Thursday, Setptember 14.
MLB props for September 14
Picks made on 9/14/2022 at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Make Corbin valuable again
Patrick Corbin has been one of the dirt worst pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 6.30 ERA and has allowed 27 home runs in 141 1-3 innings. At 6-18, he has the distinct possibility of being the first hurler to lose 20 games in a season since Mike Maroth dropped 21 for the 2003 Detroit Tigers (Maroth, himself was the first pitcher to lose 20 in a season since Brian Kingman in 1980).
But, you'd be wrong if you merely focused on bets relying on him to fail. Or, at least, you're not maximizing value. Despite his shortcomings, Corbin has maintained a relatively long leash this season. He's consistently eclipsed 90 pitches, allowing him to go fairly deep into games with the odd hiccup here and there against exceptional lineups.
Corbin has recorded at least 16 outs (5 1-3 innings) in 15 of his 28 starts. The Nationals, at this point, aren't exactly lobbying for playoff position and just need warm bodies to help cross the finish line of a miserable season. Corbin has been that warm body.
He's covered the Over on today's outs recorded total of 15.5 in five straight starts and has been fairly efficient in the last three, not going over 85 pitches in any of them.
Early in the season, the veteran left-hander was snake bitten by poor command, issuing three or more walks in four of his first seven starts. He hasn't walked more than two in any of his subsequent 21 outings. He gives up more than his share of hits, sure, but he's not watching his pitch count soar because he's unable to find the zone.
Today, he draws the Orioles, who... are bad against left-handed pitchers. They rank 20th in wRC+ (95) with a .682 OPS (23rd) vs. lefties this season. That doesn't mean they won't break through vs. Corbin, but the matchup is more in his favor than, say, it was against the Dodgers a few weeks back when he was chased after recording just two outs.
People are sleeping on Corbin because he's a shell of his former self, but he's still pitching deeper into games than one might expect and is still offering plus money to get one out in the sixth inning against a lineup that struggles against left-handed pitchers.
Patrick Corbin Prop: Over 15.5 Outs recorded (+113)
Still riding with Rodon
San Francisco Giants left-hander Carlos Rodon gets a marquee matinee assignment against the Atlanta Braves this afternoon and he's available at plus money to clear his strikeouts total of 7.5.
Rodon has averaged 7.57 strikeouts per start on the season, and 8.1 over his last 10 outings (and that gets brought down by a two-K performance vs. the Padres). He's hit double-digit strikeouts in four of his last five starts and leads all qualified starters in strikeouts per nine innings (11.73) and strikeout percentage (32.5).
The Braves hit lefties well, but Rodon isn't the aforementioned Corbin here. Atlanta still strikes out in more than 22% of its plate appearances vs. left-handed pitchers and Rodon fanned 10 Braves over seven innings of one-run ball in his lone start against the club in June. And that was at Truist Park.
Today, the Giants host the Braves at Oracle Park in San Francisco, and Rodon has been nothing short of spectacular on his home bump. His K/9 and K% both jump at home to 12.67 and 34.3%, respectively.
As long as he's available at plus money — and his strikeout totals remain fairly reasonable — I'm riding with Rodon even against a worthy opponent like the Braves.
Carlos Rodon Prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+107 at Unibet)
Dylan goes electric
Dylan Cease is looking increasingly likely to win the AL Cy Young, especially with Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander still working his way back from an injury.
Cease gets an opportunity to pad his stats against the Rockies this afternoon, furthering his case as the frontrunner.
His strikeouts total is a solid play at Over 7.5 (-110) at FanDuel, but I'm eyeing a different market: Cease to record a win.
The White Sox are -250 on the moneyline, which is an implied probability of 71.43%. After struggling to consistently pitch deep into his starts, Cease has found an extra gear. Since June 21, a span of 15 starts, Cease has completed six innings 11 times and posted a 9-3 record. By going further into his outings, he's putting himself in a better position to score the decision and, in many cases, the win.
The Rockies are one of the worst road offenses in MLB, posting a 76 wRC+ (29th) and .626 OPS (29th) with just 40 home runs (30th) away from Coors Field. In other words, this offense should put up little resistance against Cease.
Now, for the right-hander to record the win, he'll need some run support. This hasn't always been in the cards for the disappointing White Sox in 2022, but they've finally turned a corner in September.
Chicago's wRC+ of 126 this month ranks second in MLB to the Dodgers and only four teams have clobbered more than the White Sox's 18 homers. Outfielder Eloy Jimenez has been especially hot, slashing .366/.413/.780 with five home runs and 15 RBI in 46 plate appearances (he's also available to go Over 1.5 total bases at +115 at BetMGM against contact lefty Kyle Freeland).
With the White Sox offense finally living up to expectation, and a solid matchup vs. Freeland, I like Cease's chances at even money to get his 15th win on the campaign.
Dylan Cease Prop: To record a win (+100 at bet365)
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