Rangers vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Houston's Bats Wake Up

The Texas Rangers struck first in the American League Championship Series against the rival Houston Astros, thanks in large part to Jordan Montgomery outdueling Justin Verlander in Game 1 (yes, that is a real sentence typed in the 2023 MLB postseason).

Now, the Rangers are hoping playoff Nathan Eovaldi can keep that momentum going when he toes the rubber against Framber Valdez. But the Astros lineup hasn’t exactly been kind to the Rangers' veteran right-hander in the past.

Can the Houston bats respond after being shut out in Game 1 and boost its World Series odds in the process, or is there value in Texas as an underdog for the second straight game in this series? 

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my MLB picks for Game 2 of the ALCS between the Rangers and Astros as part of our MLB playoff predictions.

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros Game 2 odds

Rangers vs Astros series odds

Team
Rangers	-175	-210	-180	-180	-175
Astros	+150	+172	+160	+155	+145

Rangers vs Astros predictions

Jordan Montgomery was able to baffle the Houston Astros’ bats in Game 1 holding them to just five scattered hits over 6 1/3 innings. Now, the Texas Rangers are hoping it's next man up when they hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi.

The veteran Rangers right-hander basically had two different seasons. In the first half, Eovaldi pitched to a 2.83 ERA, held opponents to a .620 OPS, and had a 3.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then injuries limited Eovaldi to just seven starts in the second half and the numbers weren’t pretty. He posted a 7.18 ERA with a .900 OPS and a strikeout-to-walk ratio that dipped to 1.44.

But Eovaldi has built a reputation as a clutch playoff performer, and that has continued as he has allowed just two runs on 13 hits over 13 1/3 innings combined innings vs. the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles in this year's postseason.

That said, not many teams have given Eovaldi more issues than the Astros. And one player in particular has regularly mashed baseball against the right-hander. Would it surprise you to know that player is Yordan Alvarez? I didn’t think so.

Alvarez is arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball. He hit .293 with a .990 OPS, 31 home runs, and 97 RBI this season. That was just in 114 games, mind you. He’s kept that going this postseason, hitting .350 with a 1.050 OPS, and has already collected six extra-base hits.

And to say Alvarez has been a thorn in Eovaldi’s side is an understatement. Alvarez is 8-for-11 with three walks in 14 career plate appearances against Eovaldi. That includes three doubles, a dinger, and only one strikeout.

Alvarez went hitless in last night’s matchup against Montgomery, but that’s against a left-hander. A hitter of Alavarez’s caliber won’t stay down long, particularly when he's getting a dream matchup against Eovaldi. I did a double take when I saw his total bases saw at +130. Even with Eovaldi pitching better in the postseason, this seems mispriced. Give me the Over 1.5 on Alvarez at this price all day.

My best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)

Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases

Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases

Astros moneyline

+650 at bet365

As always, our same-game parlay starts off with my best bet, which is, of course, Alvarez to go Over 1.5 total bases. But Alvarez isn’t the only member of this Astros lineup who’s had success vs. Eovaldi in the past.

Not many players have faced Eovaldi more frequently than Jose Altuve. The veteran second baseman has a whopping 38 career at-bats vs. Eovaldi. He has collected 11 hits in those ABs, and five of those have left the ballpark. So, I’m adding Altuve to go Over his total bases as well.

And finally, when it comes to the matchup of Eovaldi vs. Framber Valdez, the Astros’ starter has had much more success against the Rangers than Eovladi has against the Astros. I think Houston evens the series tonight because of this, so I’ll add the Astros on the moneyline to close out this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Astros opened Game 2 of the ALCS as very slight -115 home favorites, but they have seen the early money and have bumped up to -125. 

That initial line is respecting the way Eovaldi has pitched in the postseason over the course of his career. Since his 2018 World Series run with the Boston Red Sox, Eovaldi has pitched to a 2.70 ERA while limiting opponents to a .522 OPS over 56 2/3 postseason innings.

However, those innings have not come against this Rangers lineup. Current Astros players have gotten to Eovaldi for a .313 batting average and a .616 slugging percentage over 162 combined plate appearances. That includes when he last faced them back on Sept. 5 in an ugly outing that lasted just 1 1/3 innings after surrendering four runs on five hits and a walk.

On the other side, Valdez had struggled down the stretch, including an uninspiring performance in the ALDS, surrendering five runs on seven hits and three walks over 4 1/3 innings vs. the Minnesota Twins.

But if Valdez can find his good stuff he’ll have a chance to be successful here. The lefty has a 2.90 career ERA vs. Texas and has limited current Rangers players to a .358 slugging percentage, including a September 5 start where he limited them to one run on six hits over seven innings.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 8.5 and that’s where it remains as of Monday afternoon. This number just feels like oddsmakers don’t know what to do with this matchup and I agree. You can’t be entirely sure of which version of either starting pitcher you'll get. Eovaldi has great postseason numbers but struggles vs. the Astros while Valdez is in a slump but pitches well vs. the Rangers.

With a wide range of potential outcomes, I’m staying away from the total today.

Trend to know

The Astros have won seven of the last nine meetings vs. the Rangers. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros

Rangers vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Nathan Eovaldi (2-0, 1.36 ERA): Eovaldi has continued to build on his impressive postseason resume. He held the Rays to one run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight. And he followed that up by limiting the Orioles to one run on five hits with seven Ks over seven innings.

Framber Valdez (0-1, 10.38 ERA): Valdez was dominant in the Astros' World Series run last season, allowing just four earned runs on 14 hits over 25 postseason innings. That was good for a 1.44 ERA and a .161 opponent batting average. So, he’ll look to bounce back after getting roughed up by the Twins in the ALDS.

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