The Tampa Bay Rays made an early-season statement with their record-equaling 13-0 start, but that’s in the rearview mirror now as they try to avoid a series sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon.
The Rays have come down to earth in this three-game set in Toronto, stifled by good outings from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi over the past two days. They’ll look to get back on track with ace Shane McClanahan on the mound today.
In contrast, the Toronto bats have delivered in this series, and the hosts got big days at the plate yesterday from Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk to earn a 5-2 win and move three games behind their AL East-leading opponents.
Learn more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Blue Jays on April 16.
Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays predictions
Despite scoring just five runs combined over the first two games of this series, the Tampa Bay Rays’ offensive numbers are off the charts so far in 2023. The Rays scored 101 runs while piling up those 13 straight victories to begin the year – and they won 11 of those games by four runs or more.
That’s closer to the team I expect to see at Rogers Centre this afternoon. While I’m not dismissing what Berrios and Kikuchi managed to do to slow down the visitors in this series, the Rays had chances to swing those games in their favor but couldn’t bring home the runners – they actually outhit the hosts 8-7 yesterday.
Then there’s the Alek Manoah factor. Toronto’s big righty has pitched well against Tampa Bay, but Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Brandon Lowe have three hits apiece against him. More concerning (albeit in a tiny sample size), Manoah’s fastball velocity has dipped to just above 92 mph this year and his slider hasn’t had the same bamboozling effect on hitters.
Tampa Bay has already hit a whopping 32 homers this year – and Manoah coughed up a three-run HR against the Tigers in his last start and a pair of two-run dingers in the season opener. That’s an unsettling combination for the hosts.
While pitching for the first time at Rogers Centre this season might be just the tonic for Manoah to find his best stuff, I’m leaning toward a strong response from the visitors today.
I like these MLB odds for Tampa Bay to keep the scoreboard ticking along against Manoah and the Jays’ relievers.
My best bet: Rays team total Over 4.5 (-105)
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Rays vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Rays are narrow favorites again here, likely due to Shane McClanahan looking in a better rhythm than Manoah in his first few starts of 2023, but this will be the Toronto ace’s first appearance at Rogers Centre this year and that in itself could provide a spark.
If Bo Bichette’s five-hit night was the catalyst on Friday night, it was the lower half of the lineup that got the hosts over the hump yesterday. Jansen, Kirk, and Whit Merrifield had key RBIs – and Kikuchi showed his improvements with nine strikeouts.
Still, Manoah has made an erratic start to the season, and he uncharacteristically walked five batters in his last outing against a limited Tigers lineup. In a head-to-head battle, it’s easier to trust McClanahan and his 21 strikeouts in three smooth starts.
Toronto at least got good news on Jordan Romano, with X-rays coming back negative after the Blue Jays closer was hit in the ribs while recording the final out. Even so, it might be optimistic to expect Romano to be available today.
Rays vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
Both games in this series have cashed in the Under on a 7.5-run line, and that was with the back-of-the-rotation pitchers taking the ball. This afternoon, we get two aces on the mound and a line that’s holding at 8.5.
While a low-scoring duel might seem the logical outcome, a heavy dose of divisional showdowns means there are few secrets with either of these pitchers. In fact, the Over is 3-0-1 in McClanahan’s last four starts in the third game of a series – and it’s cashed in for each of his last five starts against AL East opponents.
The Under is 3-0-1 in the Jays’ last four games, but these line-ups are hotter than the scorelines suggest. The series has already served up 33 total hits.
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, April 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sun, Sportsnet |
Rays vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Shane McClanahan (3-0, 1.59 ERA): The Rays lefty is off to a roaring start in 2023 with three dominant outings. He posted a 12-8 record last year with a 2.54 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP – but he’s had trouble against the top three hitters in the Toronto lineup in recent years
Alek Manoah (1-0, 4.91 ERA): Expectations are sky-high this season for Manoah after he finished with a 16-7 mark in 2022 to go with a 2.24 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in almost 200 innings, but there are reasonable concerns after a shaky first few weeks and a small drop in velocity.
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After some rough years against Tampa Bay, Toronto is gradually getting payback. The Blue Jays have won the last four meetings against the Rays. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
