The Tampa Bay Rays head to Milwaukee for a quick two-game interleague series with the Brewers.
The two teams sport identical records and are locked in close Wild Card races, respectively. The Rays are half a game up on the Seattle Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot, while the Brewers are one game back of the third and final NL Wild Card placement — Milwaukee is also just two games back of the NL Central-leading Cardinals.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday, August 9.
Rays vs Brewers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Brewers opened from as low as -160 to as short as -170. There has not been any line movements yet. The total has been set at 8 across the board as of Tuesday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Rays vs Brewers predictions
Picks made on 8/9/2022 at 8:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Rays vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Tuesday, August 9, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Rays vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jimmy Yacabonis (1-1, 9.00 ERA): The Rays have not officially named a starting pitcher, but it’s believed that Yacabonis will be used as an opener. He’s made 10 appearances in relief this season, amassing an ugly 9.00 ERA and 7.09 xERA. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to work bulk inning behind him, so his numbers are more pertinent. The left-hander has a 4.89 ERA, 4.81 xERA, and 4.93 FIP this season, which are all career-worst numbers. His strikeout rate (15.0%) is down and his walk rate (6.0%) is up, and his 6.9% barrel rate is concerning.
Freddy Peralta (3-2, 4.46 ERA): Peralta was on the shelf from May 22 through August 3, so we can assume he’s not fully stretched out yet. He threw 67 pitches in his first outing back, allowing two earned runs across 3 2-3 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has a 3.24 xERA and 2.19 FIP, peripherals that are both more encouraging than his 4.46 ERA.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 7-2-1 to the Under in their last 10 games following an off day. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Brewers
Rays vs Brewers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Despite both teams featuring identical records heading into Tuesday's clash, the betting market doesn’t expect this game to be all that close, as the Brewers are favored at home by as much as -170.
The numbers on expected Rays opener Jimmy Yacabonis look ugly, but consider that he likely won’t be used beyond a single frame on Tuesday. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings, and his numbers are better while still not being particularly great.
However, Milwaukee has struggled against left-handed pitching all season, ranking 25th in both wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws. That could spell trouble against Yarbrough.
The Brewers are in a funk, going just 1-6 straight up across their last seven games. They were swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates before dropping two of three against the Cincinnati Reds. They’ll turn to Freddy Peralta on Tuesday, who threw just 67 pitches in his last start in a return to the rotation. Milwaukee’s bullpen numbers (3.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) are decent-at-best and they traded away closer Josh Hader at the deadline, although it remains to be seen if that helps or hurts considering his 4.00 ERA this season.
The Rays lineup has been fine, ranking 19th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+ over the last 15 days. Both numbers lag behind the Brewers (third in wOBA, fourth in wRC+), but it somewhat evens out considering Milwaukee’s struggles against lefties.
I see line value with the underdog.
Prediction: Rays moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Will that trend continue on Tuesday?
I like to look at both teams’ numbers when they’re coming off a day's rest, as will be the case in this meeting after both clubs had Monday off. The day off affects some teams differently, similarly to how some teams in football will be drastically better coming off a bye week, which alters the handicapping for that game.
Both teams trend the same way coming off a day’s rest: The Rays are 5-2-1 to the Under in their last eight following an off day, while the Brewers are 7-2-1 to the Under in their last 10 such instances.
Neither Yacabonis nor Yarbrough have particularly encouraging statistics, but Milwaukee struggles against left-handed pitching and Yarbrough should see the bulk of the work. The Under is 8-3-2 in the Brewers’ last 13 interleague games against a left-handed starter.
Peralta hasn’t pitched much this season, but his 3.24 xERA and 2.19 FIP are both positive signs. He was fantastic a year ago, posting a 2.81 ERA and 2.66 xERA across 144.1 innings. If he can regain that form, he’ll be in fine shape — and it’s not like his peripherals have been bad this season.
Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
I’m rocking with the Under as the best bet for Tuesday’s meeting between the Rays and Brewers.
Milwaukee is one of the worst hitting teams in the league against left-handed pitching, so this is a spot for Yarbrough to have some success. On the other side, Peralta may not be fully stretched out, but he should be effective considering his strong peripherals in limited action this season.
The Brewers are 7-2-1 to the Under in their last 10 following a day of rest, while the Rays are 5-2-1 to the Under in their last eight after an off date.
I’ll take those trends to continue.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 at bet365)
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