The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs wrap up a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Wednesday afternoon. The Rays have the best record in the majors but it's the sub-.500 Cubs who took the first two contests in this series in a pair of low-scoring duels.
MLB betting lines opened with the Rays as -135 road favorites for today with the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free Rays vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for May 31.
Rays vs Cubs odds
Rays vs Cubs predictions
Zach Eflin is having a breakout campaign in his first year with the Rays, but he's displayed elite control at a consistent level over the last few seasons. Eflin's walk rate of 3.6% ranked in the first percentile in the majors in 2021 and while the number bumped up to 4.8% last year, that was still good for the Top 10th percentile.
His walk rate is a career-best 3.3% through 54 innings this season for an average of just 1.2 walks per nine innings — the second-best number in the majors.
Eflin is coming off an outing against the Blue Jays where he allowed two walks but he has still posted one or fewer walks in seven of nine starts this year. While the wind at Wrigley can make it tough to handicap how pitchers will perform once the ball is in the air, they have more control over what part of the strike they are able to target.
My best bet: Zach Eflin Under 1.5 walks (-135)
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Rays vs Cubs moneyline analysis
While the Rays have an MLB-best 39-18 record this season, they've gone a modest 13-12 in away contests and have lost four in a row on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 24-30 but have been a .500 team at Wrigley.
The Rays are sending veteran Eflin to the hill while the Cubs are replying with Justin Steele, and while they've gone a combined 13-3 this season, one of them will wind up on the losing side today.
Eflin has been lights out in his first season with the Rays, pitching to a 3.17 ERA through nine starts, and his expected ERA of 2.98 indicates that it's been more than luck. That said, Eflin's ERA jumps to 5.29 on the road, where he has an OBA of .294 across three starts.
Steele has a sizzling 2.77 ERA across 11 starts and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate rank in the top fifth percentile of all pitchers. However, he's allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts, and the Rays are the best-hitting team in the majors with an OPS of .832 — more than 40 points higher than second-place Texas.
The Cubs have been solid at the dish and rank 10th in the majors in OPS (.748) but their lineup hasn't displayed anywhere near as much consistency or power as Tampa Bay's.
Rays vs Cubs Over/Under analysis
The first two games in this series were extremely low-scoring, with the Cubs winning 1-0 on Monday and edging the Rays 2-1 last night. With the total sitting at 8.5 for the second-straight day and both pitchers boasting impressive numbers this season, the Under looks like the play at first glance again.
That said, there is reason to think we might see a higher-scoring game after all. We mentioned Eflin's struggles on the road while Steele has been rocked in two of his last three starts.
Keep in mind that not only do the Rays average 5.89 runs per game, but they've been mashing against lefties like Steele, boasting an incredible OPS of .955 against southpaws.
Neither bullpen has been effective either, with Tampa Bay's relief pitchers 22nd in the majors in ERA (4.38) while Chicago's relievers rank 27th (4.55).
Rays vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Marquee Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Zach Effin (7-1, 3.17 ERA): Eflin spend the first eight years of his career with the Phillies, posting a 4.04 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in 75 2/3 innings last season. He's been even more effective with the Rays this year, pitching to a career-best 1.02 WHIP and .236 OBA through nine starts. He's coming off a bizarre stat line last Thursday when he held the Blue Jays to one run across seven innings but didn't strike out a single batter. Strangely, he had fanned at least eight batters in three of his previous four starts.
Justin Steele (6-2, 2.77 ERA): Steele put together a strong sophomore season last year, pitching to a 3.18 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP across 24 starts. The 27-year-old has been even better this season but is coming off his worst performance getting shelled for 10 hits and six runs before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning against the Reds last Friday.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Despite the Under easily cashing in the last two games, the Over had gone 7-0 in Tampa Bay's previous seven contests while going 15-3-1 in Chicago's previous 19. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Cubs
