The Red Sox free fall continued in gut-wrenching fashion last night, as Boston blew a late-game lead in losing the opener of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Boston will try to stop the bleeding — and close the gap between it and the Rays for first in the AL East — on Wednesday night, when MLB betting odds have the Sox as slight home favorites.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on August 11, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Rays vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, August 11, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, NESN
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Rays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Josh Fleming (9-5, 4.12 ERA): Fleming has been solid splitting between the rotation and the bullpen for Tampa Bay this season, giving up three earned runs or fewer in three straight appearances and five of his last six trips to the mound. The southpaw does not strike out many batters, with just 57 Ks in 87 1-3 innings, and he has been significantly less effective on the road, sporting a 6.39 ERA away from Tropicana Field.
Nathan Eovaldi (9-7, 4.07 ERA): After making the All-Star game for the first time this year, Eovaldi has run into some major struggles as of late, coughing up at least five earned runs in three of his last five outings. He gave up seven runs on eight hits in 4 2-3 innings in his last start against Toronto, which was preceded by giving up six runs on six hits across 5 1-3 innings at Tampa Bay on July 31.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Rays: Kevin Keirmaier OF (Day-To-Day), Jeffrey Springs RP (Out), Pete Fairbanks RP (Out), Nick Anderson RP (Out).
Red Sox: Ryan Brasier RP (Out), Alex Verdugo OF (Out), Kyle Schwarber OF (Out), Danny Santana OF (Out), Christian Arroyo 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 20-5-2 in the last 27 head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
In the latest installment of Boston Blow-Ups, the Red Sox barfed up a 4-1 lead in the sixth inning, capped up by giving up four runs in the ninth to fall 8-4 to the rival Rays.
It was Boston's 10th loss in its last 12 games and sixth straight loss against the Rays, who now sit a whopping five games clear of first in the AL East while the Sox are just two games ahead of the Yankees for the second Wild Card spot.
What has been the kryptonite for the Red Sox over this struggling stretch? The bullpen, which has given up a whopping 34 runs across 45 1-3 innings over this 12-game freefall. Boston's relievers have really turned it up over the last four losses: Blowing a 4-1 lead in the sixth inning last night, wasting an 8-4 lead in the seventh against Toronto, losing in a 1-0 walk-off, and flipping a two-run lead in the fifth into an eight-run loss.
The starters aren't absolved of blame either, giving up 41 runs over 52 1-3 innings during the same span with just one starter finishing six innings. That includes Eovaldi, who's gotten bombed in each of his last two games.
But enough about the Sox. Let's also talk about the Rays, who have won five straight and nine of their last 11. Tampa Bay is second in the AL in runs scored and home runs over the last 15 days, while giving up the fifth-fewest runs in all of baseball during the same span. Tampa Bay's bullpen has also been equally dominant, with an MLB-best 1.50 ERA and stranding more than 87 percent of baserunners.
The Rays are hot, they're hitting, and they're pitching exponentially better than their Beantown counterparts. Getting them at plus money tonight against a plummeting Boston team is just too good of a value to pass up.
PREDICTION: Rays (+107)
Over/Under pick
Tonight's total is set at a flat 10, which is a number the Rays have gone Over in four straight games (twice they did it by themselves) and Boston has toppled in three straight nine-inning games.
Eovaldi is not pitching like the ace he was earlier in the year and Boston's bullpen is in utter shambles, so the Rays are likely to hang another crooked number tonight.
On the flip side, the Rays have been great at run prevention... but Fleming is prone to coughing up runs on the road: Fleming's ERA on the road this year is 6.39, and he's given up at least five earned runs in three of his last road starts.
Boston still has some solid bats in the lineup, so they should be able to scratch across a couple runs against Tampa's lefty early, doing just enough to push this over the total.
PREDICTION: Over 10 (-120)
Rays vs Red Sox betting card
- Rays ML (+107)
- Over 10 (-120)
Picks made on 8/11/2021 at 11:07 a.m. ET
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