The first installment of this four-game series gets underway Monday evening with the AL West’s Houston Astros hosting the AL East’s Boston Red Sox.
This series presents a big opportunity for both teams as Boston is just three games out of the final Wild Card spot while Houston holds a mere half-game advantage in the second seed.
With MLB odds positioning the Stros as short home favorites, can the Sox pull off the upset? Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for the Red Sox vs Astros on Monday, August 21.
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Red Sox vs Astros predictions
Right-hander Cristian Javier takes the mound for the Houston Astros, and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 23 starts this season, Javier owns a 4.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
It has been a particularly difficult second half of the season for the RHP, who possesses a fade-worthy 7.56 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his past nine starts. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely for the remainder of the year as he ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel rate.
He also ranks in the 38th percentile in K rate, which is the avenue by which we’re going to fade Javier in this contest. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 at FanDuel, a total he has failed to surpass in 13 of his past 15 starts.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against the Boston Red Sox, whose hitting has kept their season afloat — ranking in the Top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS.
The BoSox are also excellent at avoiding punchouts, ranking sixth in the league in K percentage this year when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Monday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K rate south of 19% this season. This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against Javier.
My best bet: Cristian Javier Under 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
Red Sox vs Astros same-game parlay
Javier Under 5.5 Ks
Over 9
Red Sox ML
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.
While Javier should be a good fade candidate, left-hander James Paxton should be a good candidate to back for the Red Sox. Through 16 starts this season, Paxton is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, ranking in the 69th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. Furthermore, Paxton is 8-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 14 career starts against the Astros.
With that said, both of these lineups are strong enough to generate a solid amount of run production. There have now been nine or more total runs scored in six of Boston’s past seven games and in 10 of Houston’s past 13.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Red Sox vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros opened as a –118 favorite and have since been bet up to their current price of -126. This small line movement should not be shocking given that Houston is a better team overall and features a stronger lineup.
That brings us to the total, which opened at nine and has since stayed put. It will be tough for this total to move given that both offenses are strong, while Paxton is an excellent pitcher that can limit the damage from Houston’s bats.
However, even if Paxton surrenders three or four runs, Boston is more than capable of putting up a crooked number against the struggling Javier.
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Trend to know
Javier has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in 13 of his past 15 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros
Red Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, August 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, ATTH |
Starting pitchers
James Paxton (7-3, 3.34 ERA): Paxton should be an excellent candidate to back in this contest, given his strong performance this season and his equally strong underlying metrics. The southpaw also boasts a good track record against the Astros, so even their tremendous lineup may have issues in tonight’s outing. Entering this contest in particularly good form, Paxton is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his past two starts.
Cristian Javier (8-2, 4.49 ERA): Javier’s 8-2 record this season is a perfect summation of how good Houston’s lineup is, especially considering how poor Javier has been over the second half of the season. His analytics also suggest that positive regression is unlikely the rest of the way. While the righty possesses a solid track record against Boston, the Red Sox are hot right now and should be able to take advantage of Javier’s current poor form.
