Red Sox vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Boston's Offense Will Overwhelm Mills

The Chicago Cubs gave the Boston Red Sox a little shock on Friday, upsetting them 6-5.

The Cubs were +115 to win on the moneyline yesterday, and for today's contest, they are once again the underdog. That is mostly because Chicago is sending a pitcher to the mound who has just one start this season and has an ERA of 9.87.

Boston is using a rookie pitcher this evening because of four injured starters, but he has a much lower 3.60 ERA. Can the Cubs somehow make it two in a row or will the Red Sox square the series?

Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Cubs on Saturday, July 2.

Red Sox vs Cubs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Both teams opened at -110 but the Red Sox quickly moved all the way up to -141. The total has stayed at 10 with Under slightly juiced at -115.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Cubs predictions

• Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
• Prediction: Over 10 (-105)
• Best bet: Morel Over 1.5 TB (+135)

Picks made on 7/02/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Red Sox vs Cubs game info

• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Red Sox vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Josh Winckowski (3-1, 3.60 ERA): The rookie began the season in the minor leagues, but was called up due to a rash of injuries to starters. The 24-year-old right-hander has had four starts and won three times. During those wins, Winckowski has allowed four runs on 17 hits and has struck out nine. 

Alec Mills (0-1, 9.87 ERA): Mills was scheduled to start for the Cubs this season but developed back issues and a quad injury. Manager Dave Ross has since used Mills in the bullpen as a middle reliever and he has struggled. In five relief appearances, Mills has allowed 15 runs on 21 hits. He got his first start of the season last Sunday against the St. Louis Cardinals and it didn’t go well. He only pitched 2.2 innings and gave up five runs, including three homers.

Weather

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Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the last five games between the Red Sox and Cubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Cubs

Red Sox vs Cubs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

The Red Sox came in as one of the hottest teams in baseball, going 20-6 in June, but the Cubs cooled them off on the first day of July. Chicago is on a streak of their own, winning their last three games and six of their last nine.

Still, the Red Sox are sending the better pitcher to the mound on Saturday. Josh Winckowski has won his last three games and the rookie has filled in admirably for a starting rotation that has been decimated with injuries. In fact, manager Alex Cora might have to make an unpleasant decision when he gets some of his starters back from the IL if Winckowski continues to pitch as well as he has.

That should continue Saturday as the 24-year-old has shown he can stand up to quality teams. His last start was against the Cleveland Guardians and Winckowski pitched 5.1 innings, allowing two earned runs on six hits while striking out four. The Cubs have four rookies of their own in the lineup and Winckowski will have to navigate around them.

One newbie who has been especially dangerous is Christopher Morel, who has homered in three consecutive games. Morel is batting .281 with 48 hits and 23 RBI in just 41 games.

The Red Sox produced 11 hits in last night’s game but left six runners on base. They need to get more runners across the plate to have any success. That shouldn’t be a problem since they have the league-leading batting average and are eighth in runs and rank sixth in RBI.

Cubs starter Alec Mills was shelled in his last start, allowing five runs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Look for him to repeat that performance against the Red Sox. Boston is 13-3 in their last 16 following a loss and is 13-5 in their last 18 games on the road.

Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 (+105 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The way Mills has been pitching, he could reach the Over by himself as it has been a truly awful start to his season. It certainly doesn't' help when the Red Sox are averaging 4.79 runs a game.

Over their last 10 contests, Boston is scored four or more runs eight times. The Cubs have also been effective at the plate during that span, as Chicago is averaging 4.44 runs a game.

The Over is currently trending for both teams. For the Red Sox, the Over has cashed in their last five after allowing five or more runs in their previous game.

The Over is also 4-0 in their last four following a loss. For the Cubs, the Over is 4-0 in their last four against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 

Prediction: Over 10 (-105 at Caesars)

Best bet

Christoper Morel has been pounding the baseball as of late. The Cubs rookie currently has a streak of three games with a home run. He has eight on the year which is tied for third on the team, despite only playing in 41 games. 

Of Morel’s eight homers, seven of them have been at home. His batting average is also better at Wrigley (.310) than on the road (.239). In his last seven games, Morel has had 28 at-bats and produced 10 hits, eight runs and eight RBI.

He has also had two or more total bases in four of his last five games. Expect Morel to get at least two bases on Saturday.

Pick: Morel Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)

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