To finish off our weekend, a showcase matchup awaits us on Sunday Night Baseball, when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Boston Red Sox.
This one will bring an interesting contrast on the mound between two pitchers at two career points. One is the veteran presence of James Paxton, looking to make one last run at a World Series as the hourglass fades. The other is Kutter Crawford, who has just entered the prime of a career that he hopes can amass similar accolades as his counterpart.
Read on for my free MLB picks and Red Sox vs. Dodgers predictions below.
Red Sox vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This feels like an excellent spot to buy low on the Boston Red Sox. They'll come into this game with a significant pitching advantage and extra motivation to avoid being swept.
Oddsmakers took notice of that when they opened this game as a virtual coin flip. Since then, money has come in on the Los Angeles Dodgers, pushing the BoSox to a plus-money price; I'm fading that steam. I made Boston around -110 for this matchup, so I'll happily take this price.
Let's start with Paxton, who, as mentioned, will take the mound for the Dodgers today. This is the profile of a pitcher who looks like his best years are behind him. His expected ERA is hovering right around 5.00, and there's not much to suggest from a metric standpoint that this improves.
Today, he enters below the league average in almost any quantifiable metric, but what stands out are barrel and hard-hit rates in the Bottom 35% of baseball. Boston can jump on that.
The Red Sox are in the Top 10 of baseball in hard-hit and barrel rates. Paxton has faced a few teams that fit that bill and the results could have been better. A good example is the last team he faced that fit this moniker, the Pittsburgh Pirates. He allowed six earned runs and didn't complete two innings.
This price reflects Boston's mediocre results against left-handed pitching more than anything, but there are reasons for optimism on that front. The most notable of those is a BABIP that is the second-best in baseball against lefties.
We've barely mentioned Crawford, but that's because we don't feel we need him to do much out of the ordinary. He needs to deliver a solid outing and he's been able to do that nearly every time he's taken the mound this season.
His last game of allowing 4+ earned runs came in May when he allowed five to the Orioles. It came on the heels of allowing six to the Brewers. However, minus that, Crawford has been a model of consistency, and those are the only two occurrences in which he allowed 4+ earned runs. As long as that continues tonight, we love our chances.
Red Sox vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Rafel Davers Over 1.5 total bases
This is a fantastic price for a highly correlated parlay; we'll gladly take it. If you want to focus on Paxton's issues with giving up the hard-hit ball, there aren't many better options than using Devers. He leads the Red Sox in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. In addition, he's near the top of the league in both metrics. This is an easy pairing for me.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Dodgers odds
Red Sox vs Dodgers live odds
Red Sox vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-190) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Boston -104 | Los Angeles -112
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Red Sox vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a strong Over matchup when the two teams meet. The total has gone Over in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Boston will be looking to avoid being swept tonight after back-to-back losses in Los Angeles. The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 games and bettors have lost -1.4 units.
- Despite two straight wins, L.A. has been worse in that period, with a 4-6 record over its last 10 games, which has lost bettors just over two units.
- The Dodgers hold a slight advantage in this matchup over the last 10 games with a 6-4 record in that stretch, including three straight wins.
Red Sox vs Dodgers trend
The Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+12.15 units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers.
Red Sox vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.32 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (7-2, 4.38 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries
Red Sox vs Dodgers weather
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