The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays face off in an AL East battle on Tuesday evening. This is the second contest in a three-game set at Tropicana Field with the Rays winning 4-3 last night.
The Rays have owned this divisional rivalry in 2022 and oddsmakers expect that to continue with Tampa Bay installed as a -160 home favorite for today's showdown. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Rays on September 6.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Tuesday's news that Drew Rasmussen was scratched from his scheduled start.)
Red Sox vs Rays best odds
Red Sox vs Rays picks and predictions
Given the opposite directions these teams are going in, it's tough to fade the Rays at home on the moneyline at this price.
Sure, Boston starter Rich Hill has pitched very well against them this season but he's still a mediocre pitcher at this advanced stage of his career who has gotten knocked around in three of his last five starts since coming off the IL.
The 42-year-old is also far from an innings eater, which means the Boston bullpen will get plenty of action. That's not a good thing with Red Sox relievers ranking 26th in the majors with a 4.58 ERA on the season. It's been even worse in the second half with that number ballooning to 6.05 since the All-Star break.
The Rays have gone 17-6 when Drew Rasmussen starts this season, including 5-0 in his last five outings, and they've also owned the Sox recently. Boston has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games against the Rays this season and is winless in its last seven trips to Tampa Bay.
My best bet: Rays moneyline (-160 at bet365)
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Red Sox vs Rays betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
At the beginning of July, Boston was 10 games above .500 and looked like a playoff team. But the Red Sox have gone just 22-34 since and are nine games behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot.
On the other hand, the Rays are 17-5 in their last 22 contests, and not only are they in line for a Wild Card spot but they sit just five games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead.
The Red Sox have, for the most part, been productive at the plate this season, although they've been extremely reliant on the top of their lineup and sluggers like Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. They have been even better at the dish lately, ranking fourth in the majors in OPS (.775) and first in batting average (.286) over the last 30 days.
The Rays have been a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of hitting but they have shown improvement over the last 30 days as well, ranking ninth in the majors with a .716 OPS.
They might find it tough to get on the board against Boston starter Hill, though. The lefty has a mediocre 4.52 ERA (expected ERA of 4.17) in 20 starts this season but in 11 innings against the Rays, he hasn't allowed a single run while holding his former teammates to seven hits.
Tampa Bay has an even better starter in Rasmussen who has a 2.70 ERA (albeit with a 3.54 xERA) in 23 starts. He had a dominant August where he pitched to a 1.57 ERA across six starts and came three outs away from a perfect game against the Orioles.
Over/Under analysis
Both lineups have been productive lately with the BoSox plating 4.89 runs per game over the last 30 days and the Rays averaging 5.0.
However, when you take into account several other factors, including the pitching matchups and the pitcher-friendly ballpark at Tropicana, the Over/Under of 7 makes some sense.
Hill hasn't allowed a run in 11 innings against the Rays this year and in 10 starts at Tropicana Field last season, he posted a solid 3.61 ERA with an OBA of .200. Meanwhile, Rasmussen has a 1.97 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an OBA of .178 in 11 starts at home.
The Red Sox also don't hit anywhere near as well away from Fenway, ranking 20th in the majors with a slugging percentage of .382 and averaging 4.43 runs/game on the road.
Red Sox vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Tuesday, September 6, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Bally Sports Sun
Starting pitchers
Rich Hill (6-5, 4.52 ERA): The 42-year-old has looked shaky this season, pitching to a 1.29 WHIP with 4.04 FIP and an OBA of .253. Since coming off the IL in August, Hill has a 5.48 ERA across five starts. That said, the lefty did have a dominant performance against the Rays during that span, fanning 11 batters and allowing just three hits through seven innings of shutout ball on August 27.
Drew Rasmussen (9-4, 2.70 ERA): Rasmussen has been excellent for the Rays ever since they traded for him at the start of the 2021 campaign. In 43 games with Tampa Bay (33 starts), he has gone 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. The 27-year-old was named AL Pitcher of the Month in August after posting a 1.57 ERA with 33 strikeouts and only four walks across 34 1/3 innings.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs AL East foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays
