The second half of the Major League Baseball season got off to a tumultuous start with yesterday’s game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox postponed due to health and safety protocols, but the MLB will try to get this great rivalry underway tonight.
While it was the Yankees that opened the season as MLB betting favorites to win the American League Pennant, it’s the Red Sox who lead the division coming out of the All-Star break. Can New York start to close the gap in this series? Check out our free picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Friday, July 16, and find out.
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
• Date: Friday, July 16, 2021
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, YES
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires pegged the Yankees modest -115 chalk to open, fell to -109 and is at -114 as of 4:30 p.m. ET today. The Red Sox are taking 60 percent of bets and 64 percent of cash on the moneyline. "The Red Sox are a trendy 'dog today," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is steady at 9.5, with the Over taking 58 percent of bets/56 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Martin Perez (7-5, 4.04 ERA): Perez has been one of the big surprises of the Red Sox rotation but he came back down to Earth a bit before the break. The lefty has pitched to a 6.15 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .368 over his last seven starts.
Jordan Montgomery (3-4, 4.16 ERA): Montgomery has been solid if unspectacular for the Yankees this season. And, if nothing else, the lefty has been consistent having allowed at least three earned runs and pitching at least 5 1-3 innings in five of his last six starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Marwin Gonzalez UTL (Out), Matt Andriese RP (Out), Matt Carasiti RP (Out), Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Yankees: Aaron Judge RF (Out), Gio Urshela 3B (Out), Kyle Higashioka C (Out), Nestor Cortes RP (Out), Wandy Peralta RP (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Michael King RP (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Miguel Andujar OF (Out), Darren O'Day RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-2-1 in the Red Sox last nine games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
Moneyline pick
The Red Sox come out of the All-Star break at 55-36, a whopping eight games ahead of the 46-43 Yankees. The Red Sox have done it thanks to an excellent lineup, some surprisingly solid starting pitching, and a strong bullpen.
Led by the likes of Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, the Red Sox offense ranks fifth in scoring, third in batting average, and fourth in OPS. That's going to be trouble for Jordan Montgomery.
Montgomery has done a good job eating innings but is allowing opponents to hit .262 over his last six starts, and whenever he leaves this ball game, he must hand the ball to a struggling bullpen. Yanks’ relievers rank 17th in ERA over the last 30 days and none have struggled more than closer Aroldis Chapman, who has a 13.04 ERA since the start of June.
Another reason for the Yanks’ struggles is their offense. If the Bronx Bombers aren’t hitting bombs, they aren’t scoring. New York ranks seventh in home runs but 24th in runs per game, and now they will be without two of their best hitters in Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela due to COVID.
With the starters being close to a wash and the Red Sox having the edge in the lineups and bullpen, getting them at plus money seems like a bargain.
PREDICTION: Red Sox (+105)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, these two hated rivals have played the O/U to a 3-3 record. With a total of 10 or higher, however, the Under is 2-0. On top of that, the Yankees have really struggled to score against their rivals, plating just 2.83 runs per game over their six meetings so far this season.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just a little less potent on the road, seeing their scoring average drop to 4.73, helping the Under go 7-3-2 in their last 12 games away from home.
The early money has come in on the Under and this number is just high enough for us to agree.
PREDICTION: Under 9.5 (-110)
Red Sox vs Yankees betting card
- Red Sox (+105)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/16/2021 at 1:30 p.m. ET
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