The Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees will play the rubber match of their weekend series at Yankee Stadium this afternoon before heading off into the All-Star break.
The Red Sox drew first blood in 11 innings on Friday before the Bombers answered back with a 14-1 trouncing on Saturday.
What does the Sunday matinee have in store for these two rivals? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Yankees on Sunday, July 17.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened as heavy -197 consensus favorites, and are being offered at anywhere from -200 to -215 as of this writing. The total was unveiled at 8 and has seen little movement.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 7/17/2022 at 8:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
• Date: Sunday, July 17, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, YES
Red Sox vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chris Sale (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Sale makes just his second start of 2022 in this spot. He pitched five scoreless innings against the Rays on July 12, holding their lineup to three hits and a walk while striking out five. Sale owns a 2.98 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 120 2-3 career innings against the Yankees.
Gerrit Cole (8-2, 3.05 ERA): Cole was rocked by the Red Sox two starts ago, surrendering five runs over six frames on July 7. But five days later, Cole was able to blank the Reds over seven frames, fanning 11 batters and lowering his season WHIP to 1.01.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 11-4 in the Red Sox's last 15 games when their opponent allows two runs or fewer in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Red Sox are offering value as sizable underdogs in this contest.
Chris Sale’s first start of the campaign was highly encouraging and he stands to build on that by opposing a Yankees lineup that’s he been fairly successful against. Aaron Judge is a modest 5-for-25 (.200) against Sale with only one home run. Gleyber Torres is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts.
Boston’s lineup has seldom been intimidated by Gerrit Cole, as they’ve plated eight runs against the Yankees’ ace in only 10 innings this season. Cole pitched to a 4.91 ERA against the Red Sox over 22 innings last year.
The Red Sox lineup is a bit more power-starved than in years past — checking in 19th in homers hit per game (0.99) — but can be pesky nonetheless, as they’re third in batting average (.257). Former Yankee Rob Refsnyder has been an unexpected spark plug for Boston in 2022, batting .324 this month. He has a .932 OPS on the season.
Xander Bogaerts has also been swinging a hot bat, as he’s hitting .423 over the last week of play.
The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight games played on a Sunday. It speaks to how well Boston has been able to adjust on the fly both offensively and defensively and take advantage of matchups.
Cole has had a mostly strong but occasionally uneven season, which makes the overwhelming odds in New York's favor a tad perplexing, especially with Sale countering on Boston's mound. At this price, the Red Sox are worth a flier.
Prediction: Red Sox ML (+180 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
The Red Sox may jump out to an early lead, but they’ll have to keep their foot on the gas pedal if they want to top this high-octane Yankee lineup.
New York plated 14 runs on Saturday to bring their MLB-leading runs per game figure up to 5.32. Matt Carpenter’s incredible second act continued as he clubbed two four-baggers and drove in seven runs. He’s now hitting .462 with a 1.620 OPS in July.
DJ LeMahieu and Isiah Kiner-Falefa have been playing their part in July, batting .321 and .333, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton has begun to perk up after a slow start to the month, tallying three taters over the last week.
Once Sale departs, Boston’s beleaguered bullpen — which owns a 3.73 ERA this month, 16th in the majors — will take over. But it’s not as though the Yankees have a tremendous advantage in this department. The Bombers’ relief corps sports a 3.88 ERA since the start of July, 18th in baseball in that span.
Prediction: Over 8.0 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Rafael Devers figures to be at the heart of the Red Sox attack in this tilt.
Devers has gone deep in three straight games and also homered twice vs. Cole on July 7, accounting for five RBI.
Devers has cleared 1.5 total bases in eight of his last 10 overall contests. He has 31 extra-base hits as a visitor this season, compared to 20 at Fenway Park.
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
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