A vitally important series for both teams gets going in rivalry fashion when the Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium.
With the Yankees in the thick of an AL East race and the Red Sox chasing a Wild Card spot, my Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions will explain why the value on the visitors is simply too good to pass up.
I break down that and more in my MLB picks for September 12.
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (+170 at bet365)
My analysis
At this price point, I can't pass up the Boston Red Sox in this spot, and I'm making it my best bet. I made its moneyline closer to +140, so given the edge, I'll happily grab the Red Sox.
Cooper Criswell is the paramount reason I like the Red Sox in this spot. He's been terrific lately, posting a 1.5 ERA over his last five games. Even better from a situational spot? He comes off probably his worst performance in that stretch when he allowed two earned runs to the Chicago White Sox. I think he has the tools to silence the New York Yankees' bats here.
What's critical when facing this Yankees lineup is limiting the hard-hit ball. It may be the most powerful team in baseball, and if you can't do that, you're unlikely to have much success. Criswell does. He'll enter this game with a barrel rate in the top 60% of baseball and a hard-hit rate that's even better. Moreover, he's done this more efficiently lately, which has been critical to his excellent run of games. I also like his pitching arsenal against the lineup.
Criswell stays away from the fastball most of the time, another feather in his cap against New York. They destroy fastballs. What about the breaking ball-heavy stuff that they'll see tonight? Not as much. Heading into this game, the Yankees lineup has five players batting below the league average against sweepers. That's significant against Criswell, as it's likely his best pitch. If he can limit the hard contact at the top of the order, it'll go a long way to getting Boston a win, and I like his chances to do so.
On the other side is Nestor Cortes for the Yankees. After last season, regression has always come for him, and we've seen it. He'll enter today with one of the worst hard-hit rates in baseball, and that's a big problem against the Red Sox lineup.
This isn't a team that has always made a lot of hard contact, but even still, there's plenty of power in the lineup. Today's lineup will feature four players, from Rafael Devers to Wilyer Abreu, who all rank in the 90th percentile of baseball in hard-hit rate. There's enough there to get to Cortes, and unlike the other side, this is a direct strength on weakness.
This game will come down to which power hitters make their mark on the game more. Typically, you'd like the Yankees in that scenario, but that's not the case here, given the matchup. Take the underdog at an appealing price.
Aaron Judge pick: Judge avoids the K
My best bet
Aaron Judge Under 0.5 strikeouts (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
This number is lower than it typically has been for Judge, but for good reason. Criswell isn't a strikeout thrower. He has one of the lowest rates in baseball, as he'll enter this game with just a 16% strikeout rate on the season. There's also the added effect of Aaron Judge getting fewer competitive pitches in this spot based on historical context. He's faced Criswell just twice and walked both times. I projected Judge's strikeout number at 0.8, but at this price point, I have to make this my favorite bet for the Yankees star.
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 bases
To maximize our payout, we're using a non-correlated parlay and taking Torres Over 1.5 bases paired with our best bet.
Unlike most Yankees players, Gleyber Torres has been terrific against both of the primary pitches he'll see from Criswell. Most notably, he leads all Yankees in batting average, expected batting average, and slugging percentage against the sinker. Criswell has leaned on that pitch a ton this season, as it makes up nearly 30% of his pitching arsenal. I like him to take advantage of it in this spot.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees live odds
Red Sox vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +142 | New York -155
- Run line: Boston +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This series has been split even over the last ten games, with the two teams splitting them an even 5-5.
- The Over has been hugely profitable when the pair have met. The total has gone in that direction seven of the last ten times.
- Boston has been poor over the last ten games, with a record of 4-6, and has lost nearly four units to bettors.
- New York has been slightly better, with a 5-5 record, but it has also lost bettors by -1.6 units.
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 away games (+14.45 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (6-4, 4.11 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.97 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
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