Red Sox vs Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Props: Judge, Martinez Play Big in Slugfest

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees finish off their opening weekend showdown on Sunday Night Baseball. With the rest of the slate finishing up this afternoon, we'll take a look at the litany of player props on the table for tonight's final game.

Will starting pitchers continue to have short leashes with expanded rosters in place until May? Will one of baseball's premier sluggers have a big day at the plate? We take a look with our MLB player prop picks for Sunday Night Baseball.

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MLB props for Red Sox vs Yankees

• Pick: Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116)
• Pick: Martinez Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
• Pick: Judge Over 0.5 runs (+105)

Picks made on 4/10/2022 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best Red Sox vs Yankees prop bets

Monty burned

One of the narratives through MLB's opening weekend has been how cautious teams have been with their starting pitchers. Entering Sunday, only four starters finished seven innings of work and only one more even recorded an out in the seventh. Two pitchers recorded double-digit strikeouts (Carlos Rodon and, of all people, Kyle Gibson).

The Yankees have gotten less than stellar outings from Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino, forcing the bullpen into action for a whopping 13 innings of work. Ideally, New York would be able to count on left-hander Jordan Montgomery to provide some stability and to give the bullpen a break. But, it's also worth noting that teams are carrying extra arms until May due to the shortened spring training. While, yes, Montgomery going seven strong innings would be fantastic, the Yankees won't be desperate to push him.

And while Montgomery does typically punch out more than a batter per inning, he's not exactly a power pitcher in the way fellow starters Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino, who precede him in the rotation, are. 

His strikeouts total is punishingly low at just 4.5, a number he exceeded in 19 of 30 outings a year ago, but there's not much value on taking the Over at -115. 

The Red Sox have some swing-and-miss in their lineup but aren't as overly prone to strikeouts as some teams. Boston batters struck out in 22.6% of plate appearances a year ago, which was tied for ninth-best in MLB. They also accounted for two of those 11 Montgomery outings where the left-hander failed to strike out more than four opposing hitters.

The Red Sox also clobbered left-handed pitchers in 2021 to the tune of a .758 OPS (8th in MLB).

In a typical year with a typical training camp, taking the Under 4.5 on Montgomery strikeouts wouldn't be on the table, but there's zero incentive for teams to push their starters in the early going. 

Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116)

J.D. = Just Doubles

Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez is one of the best at tallying extra-base hits. His prodigious home run power is nothing new even if he's coming off a year with only 28 long balls. He also led the majors in doubles with 42 in 2021. 

Martinez actually hit right-handers better than lefties in 2021, but that's not a cause for concern for a couple of reasons. One, the difference was fairly marginal and he still managed 22 extra-base hits against left-handers in 226 plate appearances. Two, he's absolutely murdered southpaws for the bulk of his career to the tune of a .578 slugging percentage. 

Most of the props for total bases for tonight's showdown are set at 0.5 with vig that is almost prohibitive to taking the Over. For example, Xander Bogaerts is at 0.5 total bases at -190 to the Over. On the Yankees' side, it's a similar case with Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and D.J. LeMahieu all sitting between -149 and -169 to record even one total base.

Martinez, on the other hand, can be found at +140 to go Over 1.5 bases. Obviously, it comes with more risk but his track record against left-handed pitchers is enough. Alternately, Martinez to record an RBI can be found at FanDuel at +160, which is also appealing thanks to him batting clean-up behind on-base machines Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts.

Pick: J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 total bases (+140)

The verdict is in

Josh Donaldson has been installed as the Yankees' leadoff hitter through the first two games of the season, which seems to be the norm going forward — at least for the time being. Naturally, by virtue of being the first player to get an at-bat, he is immediately seen as the most likely to get an opportunity to score runs. His runs scored prop is set at 0.5 at -110 to the Over. He's not my preferred pick.

Aaron Judge, the Yankees' second hitter in the lineup, can be had at +105 for the same prop. There's not that much of a difference between the lineup spots and Judge is even more of an OBP threat than Donaldson. While yes, Donaldson benefits from having Judge follow him in the lineup as a RBI source, but it's not like the rest of the lineup is a joke, either.

Rizzo, Stanton, LeMahieu, and Joey Gallo are generally next in line, and Judge may not even need their help. After all, only four batters in MLB have more home runs since 2017 than Judge and they've all played way more games. 

Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck can certainly shut opponents down, but with how teams are playing it safe with their starters — even when twirling gems — in the early going, he will have to be incredibly efficient to go deep.

Let's snag Judge to score a run at plus money.

Pick: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 runs (+105)

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