The Toronto Blue Jays thumped the Cincinnati Reds 10-3 to even up their three-game set on Tuesday. Now they go for the series win in tonight’s rubber match, and it should be a good one as the MLB odds have this one as a virtual coin-flip.
The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Yariel Rodriguez while the Reds counter with veteran Nick Martinez in what could be an unlikely pitcher’s duel.
I break down it all down in my Reds vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 21.
Reds vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 F5 (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays responded to a series-opening 6-3 loss by handing the Cincinnati Reds a 10-3 beatdown last night, and it was a complete team effort.
The Jays got hits from eight of their nine starters while Jose Berrios pitched seven strong innings. But the runs could be a little harder to come by for the Blue Birds tonight. Yes, even with Nick Martinez going for the Reds.
The veteran right-hander has spent much of the year as the Reds' long reliever, but he has rejoined the rotation three starts ago and has been impressive. Martinez has allowed just three runs on 13 hits over 18 innings pitched during that stretch.
Overall, Martinez is pitching to a 3.03 expected ERA with his four-seam fastball and changeup being a lethal combo.
While the Jays have generally been doing a better job at the plate in the second half, they’ve hit a bit of a lull, ranking 25th in batting average over the last two weeks. They have also been, as the kids say, "mid" when facing right-handed pitching this season, ranking 17th in batting average and 14th in OPS.
Toronto counters Martinez with Yariel Rodriguez, a 27-year-old rookie they signed out of Cuba in the offseason.
Rodriguez is pitching to a 3.05 ERA and limiting opponents to a .172 batting average over eight starts since returning from an injury on July 1, and he could be a problem for a Reds team that struggles to produce vs. right-handed pitching. Cincy ranks 25th in batting average and wRC+ while also having the fourth-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.
I’m betting pitching is the story early on in this one and will be betting the first five innings Under.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Daulton Varsho may have come up short for us when it came to cashing in an RBI during last night’s barrage vs. the Reds, but the Blue Jays' outfielder stayed hot by getting on base twice, which included a triple. So, with the oddsmakers giving us another good price for a Varsho RBI, let’s go back to the well.
After going 1-for-3 last night, Varsho is now hitting .288 with a .849 OPS in August, and he extended his hitting streak to five games where he is hitting .381 with a 1.102 OPS, three extra-base hits, and five RBI.
Now that he’s been locked into the No. 2 hole, it’s encouraging that the Jays have been getting some production from youngsters like Joey Loperfido and Addison Barger recently, giving Varsho guys to drive in.
Plus, at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have a Varsho RBI as a five-star play.
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Reds vs Blue Jays odds
Reds vs Blue Jays live odds
Reds vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -105 | Toronto -115
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-220) | Toronto -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Reds vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as slight -115 home favorites but the Reds have seen the early money and the game is basically a pick'em with both sides in the -110 range.
- This game really feels like a toss-up. They split the first two games, both have surprisingly effective starters, and both have inconsistent lineups that can explode at any time. I would lean toward the Reds at this price as they have a much better bullpen.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Wednesday afternoon.
- While I like the five-inning Under, the Blue Jays remain a solid full-game Over team due to an improved offense and awful bullpen.
Reds vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games for +8.95 Units and a 31% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Blue Jays.
Reds vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSOH, Sportsnet |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Nick Martinez (6-5, 3.17 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (1-5, 3.60 ERA) |
Reds vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Reds vs Blue Jays weather
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