The Atlanta Braves will begin their championship defense tonight at Truist Park as they welcome a Cincinnati Reds team that has also seen a facelift heading into the 2022 season. The home side is sporting a very different roster from October but comes into the season opener as solid -175 favorites.
Can the Braves generate some offense without Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler and Ronald Acuna? Are the Reds still competitive with three of their best bats on to better things?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Reds vs. Braves on Thursday, April 7.
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Reds vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Braves opened at -210, but have seen resistance as they have fallen to -180 over the course of 24 hours. The total opened briefly at 8 before hitting 8.5 where it sits as of Thursday afternoon, and leans to the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Reds vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 4/07/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Reds vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2, Bally Sports
Reds vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tyler Mahle RHP (2021: 13-6, 3.75 ERA): Mahle is coming off another impressive season that saw him lead the majors in starts and finish in the Top 30 in FIP and WAR. He owned an 8-2 record on the road last year with a 2.30 ERA. He has issues with the long ball but those are tied to his home starts at Great American Ball Park. He did not pitch against Atlanta last season.
Max Fried LHP (2021: 14-7, 3.04 ERA): Fried is coming off the best second half in all of baseball last year. The young lefty went an incredible 8-2 with a 1.74 ERA over 14 second-half starts. He’s having no velocity issues coming out of spring training and currently has the sixth-shortest odds for the NL Cy Young.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Reds: Lucas Sims RP (Out), Jose Barrero SS (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna OF (Out), Lucas Jackson RP (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Braves.
Reds vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Braves are coming off a World Series win in 2021, but with an 88-73 record heading into the postseason, they had the worst record out of every playoff team. The bats got hot and they played incredibly at home and took home the hardware, but with all the changes that have occurred since then, we aren’t as high on them this season.
With that being said, this is still a solid lineup that will feature Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson at the top of the order. The addition of Oslon might be the most impressive of the offseason as the former Oakland A's slugger fills most of Freddie Freeman's shadow. Olson is a gold glover who launched 39 homers in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum last season.
The new Atlanta lineup, which will be missing Ronald Acuna for another four weeks, will take hacks against right-hander Tyler Mahle tonight. The Braves have not seen much of the Cincinnati starter but Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley have taken him deep in limited at-bats.
Mahle led the majors in starts last with 33 and finished with an impressive 127 ERA+ after posting a 137 ERA+ over nine starts in the abbreviated 2020 season. Mahle has been consistently solid and is coming off a good spring where he punched out 14 through 10 2/3 innings.
He finished the 2021 season in the Top-30 in FIP and his struggles with the long ball should be blanketed by the colder April weather which is projected to be 58 degrees at game time. Mahle is a sneaky good pitcher for a +155 price tag, but can the offense give him some support?
Gone are slugger Nick Castellanos, outfielder Jesse Winker, and infielder Eugenio Suarez, but there are enough sticks in this lineup to scrape together a few runs.
Jonathan India is a great leadoff man and got on base at a .376 clip which was the eighth-best mark in baseball last season. He’ll be followed by Tyler Naquin (19 homers in 411 at-bats last season), and Joey Votto who traded his .300 batting average for the long ball after launching 36 homers last season which tied a career-high, He still has plenty in the tank at 38.
The Reds have a decently constructed lineup that could be even better if Nick Senzel takes a step forward and Mike Moustakas and Tommy Pham can bounce back after quiet seasons. The home side has an advantage at the dish, but it isn’t a huge one.
Max Fried will get the ball for the Braves and is coming off an up-and-down postseason run despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball’s second half last season. He got knocked around in spring training and gave up six runs in his last start while inducing just four missed swings. We’re not reading too much into the warm-up, but not sure we want to lay the juice with the Braves at -175.
The Reds might be an undervalued team here and THE BAT X projection system has them winning four more games than their current 74.5 win total. We like Mahle and are sure there will be some ceremony before the game, which likely should fire up the Reds and distract the home side.
Prediction: Reds ML (+155 at Bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Last season, both of these clubs finished in the Top 10 in runs per game but it’s safe to say that each side has lost some run production.
The Braves lost Freeman who finished the season last year 33rd in wRC+, while Acuna (out) finished 6th in the same category. Missing those pieces is a big deal and although Olson is a great replacement, we doubt he contributes at that level immediately after coming over from the American League.
For Cincinnati, Castellanos and Jesse Winker both finished the season in the Top 20 in wRC+ last year and the move the Reds made to replace them doesn't come close to replacing that production.
Both teams will be without their top-two run-producing hitters from a season ago heading into this game, and we like both starters to keep things under control on a relatively cold night in Atlanta.
Fried dominated hitters over the second half of last season and was baseball’s best pitcher over that stretch. He headed into the postseason with a 1.74 ERA over 14 second-half starts. He also gave up just six home runs over 351 plate appearances. His velocity was fine in the spring despite a late rough outing.
Mahle pitched much better away from home last season and posted a 2.30 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP across 18 road starts. We’re really high on Mahle this season and are happy to bet on him anytime away from Great American Ball Park.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Best bet
It’s hard not to look at these new rosters and see the glaring run production missing. Castellanos, Winker, and Suarez were basically the middle of the Reds’ order from last season with the exception of Joey Votto. Freeman and Acuna were the two-best run producers on the Braves a season ago as both lineups are missing their best thumpers heading into the 2022 season.
The pitching matchup also has us leaning to the Under. Mahle is a fantastic pitcher away from his home park, while Fried was the best pitcher down the stretch a season ago. The Braves bolstered their bullpen with the addition of Kenley Jansen while the Reds have some talent in the bullpen as well with Art Warren (1.29 ERA last season in 29 appearances) likely owning the closing role.
The weather will also be on our side and we’d be happy to see a quick game between two teams with solid starters, good bullpens, and lineups that were better last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
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