The Windy City is going to earn its nickname today, with the forecast calling for the wind to be gusting in at Wrigley Field for the series opener between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs.
Our top Reds vs. Cubs predictions are calling for a slow start for both lineups against a pair of rolling righties.
I break it all down in my MLB picks for Friday, September 27.
Reds vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
F5 Under 3.5 (-120 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Both of Friday’s starting pitchers enter in excellent form, and the howling wind at Wrigley Field will put both offenses at a huge disadvantage.
Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon sports a 1.08 ERA and 0.84 WHIP while allowing just three runs across four September starts, while Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Martinez enters with respective 0.73 and 0.69 marks across his past four trips to the hill.
The Reds have also struggled on offense all month with a 21st-ranked .291 wOBA despite a respectable .304 BABIP. It’s been a different story for the Cubbies, with the North Siders teeing off for a .327 wOBA, but their third-ranked .323 BABIP is also unsustainably high.
Additionally, I value both starters rarely issuing free passes. Taillon has a 5.1% walk rate for the month, and Martinez has been even better with a 4.3%. Additionally, they’re also stingy early in starts. Taillon sports a 3.12 ERA for the first time through the order this season, and Martinez has a 2.02 mark.
Finally, while it’s difficult to quantify, this is a ripe spot for both teams to mail it in at the dish. It's the 160th game of the season for both, and the hitting conditions are going to be miserable.
Reds vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Under 6.5
F5 Under 3.5
As noted, Chicago has had the better offense down the stretch, and the Cubs also have a higher wOBA and on-base percentage against right-handed starters for the season. Additionally, the Chicago defense is far superior, which could play a larger role on Friday with the unfavorable hitting conditions. For comparison, the Cubs rank eighth in fielding percentage and ninth in defensive runs saved, and the Reds check in at 27th and 28.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Cubs odds
Reds vs Cubs live odds
Reds vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +125 | Chicago -150
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-180) | Chicago -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)
Reds vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Cincinnati was late to name its starting pitcher, so there has been minimal movement to the moneyline and total.
- The Cubs opened as a -150 favorite through bet365 and are trading at -140 as of Friday morning, while Pinnacle has only moved Chicago from -135 to -131.
- There has also been a 10-cent move to the Under 6.5 at bet365, with the shop hanging a +105/-125 split as of Friday morning.
- Pinnacle has made adjustments to the odds for its 6.5 total, but it’s returned to the opening +103/-116.
Reds vs Cubs trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the game total Under in 74 of their last 143 games (+6.90 Units / 4% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs.
Reds vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, Marquee |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Nick Martinez (10-6, 3.22 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (11-8, 3.41 ERA) |
Reds vs Cubs latest injuries
Reds vs Cubs weather
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