Rockies vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Friars Don't Fan on Friday

The San Diego Padres will look to bounce back from an Opening Day loss as they host the Colorado Rockies in the second leg of a four-game series on Friday night.

The Rockies (1-0) posted a 7-2 win over the Padres (0-1) in the first game of the series. That continued a trend from last year, in which Colorado managed to win the season series over San Diego 10-9.

While the Rockies may have found success in this matchup last season, Friday starter Kyle Freeland struggled to contain the San Diego lineup in his five starts against the team. We’ll see what that means for Friday’s game in our MLB picks and predictions for Rockies vs. Padres on March 31.

Rockies vs Padres odds

Rockies vs Padres predictions

While Kyle Freeland enjoyed an excellent season in 2018, going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, he’s never been able to recapture that success since. In his last four complete seasons with the Rockies, Freeland has compiled a 21-33 record, and hasn’t posted an ERA under 4.33. Even accounting for the issues that come with pitching in Colorado, his ERA+ has only been about average, and his WHIP has consistently stayed above 1.4. 

The biggest issue for Freeland in the modern game might be his inability to finish off hitters. While he was never much of a strikeout pitcher, he was only able to punch out 6.8 batters per nine innings last year.

Given his mediocre performance overall, Freeland had predictable struggles with the high-powered Padres offense in 2022. In five starts, Freeland did manage a 3-1 record, but posted a 6.75 ERA. He struck out just 15 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. He only went beyond six innings once in those five starts, and on two occasions, went five innings or less.

For the most part, Freeland also failed to record many strikeouts in those appearances. In four of the five games, he recorded three or fewer strikeouts against the Padres. One exception — a seven strikeout performance in San Diego on August 4 — made his overall numbers against the lineup look better, but the Padres were able to make contact in most of his starts. 

San Diego was among the most difficult teams in the league to strike out last year, doing so only 8.19 times per game. While the Rockies were able to record 10 punchouts on Thursday, much of that came out of the bullpen, with Dinelson Lamet and Justin Lawrence combining for five strikeouts in just two innings of work. 

In an early-season start, there’s a greater chance than usual that Freeland gets removed from the game early, and it’s unlikely he goes past the fifth or sixth inning. Without enough opportunities to compile numbers, he’s simply not the kind of pitcher whom we can expect to record a large number of strikeouts against the Padres. 

I’m targeting Freeland’s strikeouts prop for tonight’s game. With solid prices at a total of 3.5, I’m happy to back the Under.

My best bet: Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)

Rockies vs Padres moneyline analysis

San Diego opened tonight’s game as a -173 favorite over Colorado. The line has moved in the Padres’ favor throughout the day, and the consensus moneyline is now in the neighborhood of San Diego -195. 

I’ve already talked a bit about Colorado Freeland. The Padres didn’t have a dramatic platoon split last year, and actually hit a little bit better against lefties, though the difference was only a matter of eight points in OPS. Notably, however, San Diego hitters struck out only once out of every 4.9 plate appearances against southpaws, while that number increased to 1 in 4.55 against righties, another reason to like the Under on Freeland’s strikeout prop tonight.

The Padres will counter with veteran Nick Martinez. San Diego moved Martinez up in the rotation while it waits for Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove to get ready to make their first starts. Martinez went 4-4 with a 3.47 ERA last year while making 47 appearances, including 10 starts. He was generally effective against the Rockies, putting up a 3.31 ERA in 16.1 innings against Colorado.

With Juan Soto and Manny Machado in the heart of their lineup, the Padres deserve to be a solid favorite in tonight’s game. However, the number is getting a bit too lopsided for my taste as it approaches -200. Given Colorado’s success against San Diego as of late, I’m leaning towards taking plus money with the Rockies tonight.

Rockies vs Padres Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s Over/Under opened at 8.5 runs. That number has come down a bit during the day, with the consensus total falling to a flat 8 across the industry. 

The Padres and the Rockies both boasted above-average offenses last year, though they weren’t among the league leaders in run production. Of course, San Diego took on reinforcements throughout the year, most notably getting Soto to beef up its already formidable lineup. 

So why weren’t the Padres scoring more runs, then? The biggest issue is Petco Park, the single worst stadium in Major League Baseball for runs scored. ESPN’s version of Park Factor gives Petco Park a .789 factor for runs in 2022, meaning scoring was down 21% compared to what you’d expect at a league-average park last year. In Denver, you’d expect these teams to score nearly twice as many runs as they will average in San Diego.

Even with the uninspiring pitching matchup, it’s hard to ever expect a ton of runs at a Padres home game, which is probably why bettors have already taken the total down half a run. Even at eight, my first instinct is to lean to the Under in this game. While run-scoring should be up across the league with the rule changes MLB has implemented this year, Petco Park should continue to be a stadium where offenses struggle to generate runs.

Rockies vs Padres game info

Rockies vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Freeland (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Once considered one of the most promising young pitchers in the National League, Freeland has been unable to regain the form he displayed in his outstanding 2018 season. However, when adjusting for the Colorado environment, Freeland remains an above-average pitcher who can throw a variety of pitches. While he doesn’t get many strikeouts, he is good at generating poor contact with his breaking balls, which help cover his below-average fastball.

Nick Martinez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): After a season where he primarily worked out of the bullpen, Martinez figures to be the last man in a six-man rotation for San Diego in 2023. Originally starting his MLB career with the Texas Rangers in 2014, he spent four years in Japan before signing with the Padres last year. The time in Japan saw Martinez improve his breaking balls and increase his fastball velocity, making him far more competitive against MLB hitters than before his stint overseas.

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Freeland has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Padres

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