Rockies vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Darvish Continues Colorado's Road Woes

After finishing second in Cy Young voting last year, Yu Darvish is off to another stellar start this season — and faces a Rockies team tonight that is among the worst hitting teams in baseball on the road.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 17, 2021 • 18:30 ET
San Diego Padres Yu Darvish MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Rockies head to the West Coast on Monday to face off against the San Diego Padres in the first contest of a three-game series. 

These teams faced off against each other in Colorado just five days ago with the exact same starting pitchers on the mound. The Padres took that contest by a 5-3 score in seven innings and will try to repeat that success tonight at home. 

Here are our best free Rockies vs. Padres picks and predictions for MLB betting action on Monday, May 17, with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. 

Rockies vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Monday, May 17, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: ATTSN-RM, BS-SD

Rockies vs Padres odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

DraftKings pegged San Diego a -182 favorite at the outset this morning and within a couple of hours got to -205, where the line spent much of the day. As of 6:30 p.m. ET, the Padres are -210 and getting hammered by bettors, taking 90 percent of moneyline wagers and 89 percent of moneyline dollars. The total dipped from 7 (Under -122) to 6.5 (Under -114), although the Over is attracting 84 percent of bets and 72 percent of cash.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Rockies vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jon Gray (4-3, 2.93 ERA): The 29-year-old has been solid for the Rockies this season, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of eight starts. He's coming off a game against the Padres last Wednesday when he allowed just three hits and one earned run in 5 2-3 innings.

Yu Darvish (3-1, 2.08 ERA): Last year's NL Cy Young Award runner-up is putting together another strong season after being traded to San Diego in December. In eight starts, Darvish has fanned 59 batters across 47 2-3 innings while holding opponents to a batting average of .182. In last Wednesday's matchup in Colorado, he allowed just one unearned run through four innings of work. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Rockies: C.J. Cron 1B (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Jurickson Profar OF (Out), Wil Myers OF (Out), Eric Hosmer 1B (Out), Jorge Mateo SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rockies are 12-40 in their last 52 road games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Padres.

Runline pick

The Padres are coming off a three-game sweep of the Cardinals, which is made all the more impressive by the fact that they were missing half of their lineup due to health and safety protocols.

San Diego is now 24-17 and just half a game behind San Francisco for first place in the NL West

The Rockies are in last place in the division and have really struggled on the road, where they are just 2-14. A big reason for that is that they simply can't hit away from Coors Field, ranking 29th in the majors with an OPS of .610 on the road.

It won't be easy for Colorado to hit the ball today as they go up against Padres ace Yu Darvish. The four-time All-Star is coming off a strong outing against the Rockies at Coors Field and has a 2.08 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP in eight starts on the year. 

The Padres have also won seven of the last eight meetings between these AL West foes, with six of those victories coming by multiple runs. Don't overthink this one and back the home team on the runline. 

PREDICTION: San Diego -1.5 (+110)

Over/Under pick

The Over/Under for this game opened at a low 7 and has dropped to an even more paltry 6.5. But the Rockies have been one of the worst batting teams on the road for years and the Padres play in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the country.

San Diego musters just 3.68 runs per game at home while the Rockies average just 3.25 runs per game in away contests.

Both teams also have strong pitchers on the mound. Gray has been solid for Colorado this season, pitching to a 2.93 ERA and he's coming off a solid performance against the Padres. He should be in line for another good showing as the Padres are currently missing many of their top sluggers, including MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres have Darvish getting the start and they have plenty of quality arms after him as well, with San Diego relievers ranking second in the majors with an ERA of 2.73.

With the Under going 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams in San Diego, bet it again. 

PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-110)

Rockies vs Padres betting card

  • San Diego -1.5 (+110)
  • Under 6.5 (-110)

Picks made on 5/17/2021 at 12:20 p.m. ET

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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

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