Will Ronald Acuna Jr. Join Baseball's Illustrious and Elusive 40-40 Club?

The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball and are the betting favorites in the latest World Series odds. 

While the team as a whole is as deep and balanced as you'll find, a big reason for their success has been the play of 25-year-old outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who is also the runaway favorite to win the 2023 NL MVP Award according to recent MLB odds.

A power-speed combo, Acuna has missed a lot of time due to injuries over the last two seasons but is finally living up to his sky-high potential. As a result, there are markets offering the option to bet on his chances to join the elusive 40-40 club. What was, as recently as two weeks ago, projected as a long shot, Acuna's odds to hit the 40-40 have tightened considerably.

Let's take a closer look at Acuna's season so far and whether he has a realistic shot at one of baseball's rarest accomplishments.

Odds for Ronald Acuna Jr. to join 40-40 club

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 10, 2023.

Just how rare is a 40-40 season?

Before we look at Acuna's season specifically, it's important to dive into just how infrequent this accomplishment has been over the years. For example, Mike Trout — a player almost universally considered the best baseball's had to offer over the last 10-plus years — has stolen 40 bases and hit 40 homers, but never in the same season.

Here is the complete list of players who have recorded both in a single campaign:

That's it. Four players in the history of the game have done it. Some, like Trout, have had 40-homer seasons and 40-steals seasons in intervening years. And others have come agonizingly close with Matt Kemp's 2011 season being the most notable in relatively recent memory. Kemp, the former Los Angeles Dodgers star, stole exactly 40 bases that year and hit 39 long balls. Kemp even went yard in his final game that season to cut the deficit to a single dinger.

Outside the inner circle of four who have joined the 40-40 club, there have only been 10 instances where a player has notched 40 in one category and 35 or more in the other during one season: Willie Mays, Bobby Bonds (twice), Eric Davis, Howard Johnson, Barry Bonds, Vladimir Guerrero, Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Kemp, and, yes, Acuna. In 2019, his second season in the majors, Acuna clobbered 41 home runs and swiped 37 bases.

Acuna's 2023 season at a glance

Acuna hit the ground running and has already knocked off one of the two categories needed to join the 40-40 club with an NL-leading 41 bases through 89 games. Only Oakland A's outfielder Esteury Ruiz has more stolen bases across MLB with 43 but he's only gone deep once.

Some of that added success can be attributed to the larger bags introduced to MLB this season as well as rules related to pitchers only being able to throw over to first base twice per at-bat without successfully picking a runner off. 

With the speed element already out of the way, it's time to ponder the power.

When we first took a gander at these odds on June 21, Acuna was sitting at 15 homers with +350 odds that he would go 40-40 and -520 for no. Those odds have shortened considerably, though you can still find "yes" at plus money. The sheer rarity of the feat, even with how close he was to the stolen base number, likely had some effect on how conservative lines have been. But it seems like Acuna has found another gear.

In 16 games since we first looked at his odds in this specialty market, Acuna is hitting .367/.449/.733 with six home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 213 wRC+. He has eight multi-hit games in that span and only went hitless twice (in two of three vs. the Rays before the All-Star break). He now ranks 11th in the majors in long balls and is over halfway to his needed total.

FanGraphs is projecting 15 more home runs off his bat through the end of the season, which is a fairly conservative number but these projections generally are. He did have a recent run where he hit six long balls in the course of 10 games, so smashing 19 more in roughly half a season is definitely within reach.

Welcome to the club

Despite the rarity of the feat and the fact that his power stroke hasn't fully returned, there is a surprising amount of value on the table for the Braves superstar to pull it off.

Having already tallied 30 steals, the home run ball is the only real question mark. He hit 20 of his 41 homers in 2019 after the All-Star break. As the weather gets warmer, balls travel further, and if he can reach 20 homers by this year's Midsummer Classic on July 11 — a span of 17 games — this will look even better. But the more homers he hits between now and then, the shorter the odds will get.

And he did recently hit a mammoth 461-foot homer vs. Detroit, so he can still hammer away with the best of them. If he was only hitting cheapies and wall-scrapers, there would be more concern.

Ronald Acuña HR.

??: https://t.co/W6qzMwejkW pic.twitter.com/PnaUfRdXLR

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) June 14, 2023

This is not a bet where you should go wild with your bankroll to invest in, however, as there have still only been four players in the history of baseball to pull it off. But considering how close in steals Acuna already is, how narrowly he's missed it before, and how he's still among the best power hitters in the game despite not being too prolific with the HR ball just yet, it's worth a sprinkle at solid plus money.

It's also the only bet worth taking here if you're interested in the market because betting no requires a monumental amount of juice at -520.

My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. — Yes to join 40-40 club (+350 at FanDuel)

Pick made on June 21, 2023.

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