It may not have been a pretty second half of the season for either the Kansas City Royals or the Baltimore Orioles, but both qualified for the postseason and now will face off in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday, October 1.
My Royals vs. Orioles predictions break down a pitching matchup worthy of the postseason as two of the American League’s best, Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes do battle.
But my MLB picks highlight why Burnes' day may be a little shorter than expected.
Royals vs Orioles prediction
Who will win Royals vs Orioles Game 1?
The Kansas City Royals will draw first blood. While Corbin Burnes has been good down the stretch, Cole Ragans has been better. Plus, the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen has been very suspect in the second half, which is not something you want heading into the postseason.
My Royals vs Orioles best bet
Corbin Burnes Under 17.5 outs recorded (+115 at bet365)
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My analysis
This is the type of pitcher’s duel you think about when you are talking about postseason baseball.
Ragans vs. Burnes has the potential to be a marquee matchup. They've been two of the American League’s best starters and have been dealing down the stretch. They even have matching 3.27 expected ERAs heading into this Game 1 showdown.
That said, I think Ragans is better set up to pitch deep into this ball game.
Burnes wasn’t the most consistent pitcher in 2024 and we saw him stumble pretty badly in August (a 7.36 ERA over five starts) before bouncing back in September. The other interesting note is Burnes' strikeouts have been way down in his first — and potentially only — season in Baltimore.
The 29-year-old right-hander struck out just 23.1% of the batters he faced this season. That is just about league average, which is fine if you ignore that this was his lowest K-rate since his rookie season and his K-rate was 31.6% over the last five campaigns.
That resulted in the highest opponent-expected batting average he’s allowed (.232) since becoming a full-time starter.
It looks like Burnes has been putting his cutter — which he uses nearly 50% of the time — in the zone far more often than he did in the past. As a result, opponents have a .259 xBA against what used to be his bread and butter.
Meanwhile, the Royals, have done a solid job against RHP all season, ranking 11th in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+. On top of that, they have the third-highest contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone.
Not for nothing, Burnes made two starts against the Royals back in April. He went 5 2/3 innings in the first, where he allowed two runs on nine hits while striking out three. He followed that up by allowing three runs on four hits with four Ks, again in just 5 2/3 innings.
Burnes’ outs recorded prop is sitting at 17.5. He’s stayed below that number in six of his last 10 and with the way postseason games are managed these days, don’t be surprised if he has a shorter leash than usual. At plus money, there is solid value on the Under, and our Covers Prop Projections have Burnes projected for just 15.5 outs, giving us two whole outs to work with.
Royals vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Burnes Under 17.5 outs
Salvador Perez Over 0.5 hits
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 hits
The old adage goes, great pitching beats great hitting, especially in the postseason. But I’ve got my eye on a couple of catchers who can be the difference-makers for their teams, not only in this game but if they hope to make long runs this October.
Let’s start with the ageless wonder Salvador Perez. The Royals catcher had yet another productive year at the plate, ending the season hitting .271 with a .786 OPS, 27 home runs, and 104 RBI. He’s also one of those rare hitters who doesn’t mind facing Burnes.
Perez is an impressive 6-for-12 in his career with a dinger and just one strikeout in his career vs. the O’s right-hander. The stage is also never too big for the former World Series MVP, and I like him to start his postseason with a hit tonight.
The other catcher is, of course, Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman. Like many of his teammates, Rutschman cooled off in the second half, but he closed the season with hits in five of his last seven games, including three multi-hit games.
Rutschman, like Perez, also has good numbers against the opposing starter. The switch-hitting catcher is 4-for-6 with a double and one K in his career vs. Ragans.
It was also quite clear that Rutschman was much more comfortable hitting from the right side by the end of the season, where his average was .329 with a .902 OPS. Add him to get a knock in this one as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Orioles odds
Royals vs Orioles live odds
Royals vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +125 | Baltimore -150
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 -180 | Baltimore -1.5 +150
- Over/Under: Over 7.0 | Under 7.0
Royals vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles opened as -150 home favorites and got up to as high as -165 before money on the Royals brought the line back to the opening number.
- I like the value of the Royals as underdogs in Game 1. The starters are fairly even, and both lineups struggled in the second half. The difference is a Baltimore bullpen that had the fourth-worst ERA in baseball since Aug. 1.
- The total hit the board at 7.0 and early bettors jumped on the Under, moving the number down to 6.5.
- Kansas City's bullpen has question marks of its own. If you like the Under, I would keep it to the first five innings. Otherwise Over 6.5 on the full-game total is tempting.
Royals vs Orioles trend
The Royals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 away games for +10.95 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Orioles.
Royals vs Orioles Game 1 info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA) |
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