The opening game of this AL series gets underway tonight with the Boston Red Sox hosting the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park. MLB odds have Kansas City as a slight -116 favorite, while the total sits at 9.
My Royals vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 12 will target a Cole Ragans player prop.
Royals vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Cole Ragans Over 7.5 strikeouts (-132 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Kansas City Royals hand the ball to southpaw starter Cole Ragans, and he should be an excellent candidate to back on Friday evening. The former first-round pick boasts a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 19 starts this season.
Specifically, we are going to back Ragans in the MLB player props as he ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and 90th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 7.5, a total he has surpassed in two of his past three starts.
This success is likely to continue against the Boston Red Sox. While Ragans has only faced them once, he surrendered just one earned run across 6 2/3 innings while accumulating 11 strikeouts.
Boston is the most strikeout-prone team in the league. When facing left-handers this season, it ranks last in strikeout rate at an astoundingly poor 29.2%. To put that number in perspective, the Seattle Mariners rank second-to-last at 26%.
Royals vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Cole Ragans Over 7.5 strikeouts
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Hits
Royals moneyline
I’m also going to look at a member of Kansas City’s lineup to record a hit on Friday, and there is no better place to look than Bobby Witt Jr.. He is the team’s best player, boasting a .325 BA and .931 OPS this season.
His underlying metrics are somehow even better, as Witt Jr. ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his past 15 games.
If we are backing both Ragans and Witt, then a correlated outcome would be for the Royals to also win the game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Red Sox odds
Royals vs Red Sox live odds
Royals vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-120) | Boston +1.5 (-145)
- Moneyline: Kansas City -125 | Boston +105
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Royals vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City opened as a -118 favorite and has since been bet down to -116.
- This is minimal line movement, and it is due to the uncertainty of what the Red Sox are going to do with their pitching situation as a starter has yet to be announced as of Friday afternoon.
- The total opened at 9 and remains there. Again, there is much uncertainty regarding this game because nobody knows who Boston's starter will be.
Royals vs Red Sox trend
Cole Ragans has recorded at least eight strikeouts in two of his past three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Red Sox
Royals vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSKC, NESN |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (5-6, 3.28 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Royals vs Red Sox latest injuries
Royals vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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