The Kansas City Royals will look to continue their climb up the AL Wild Card standings when they visit the Detroit Tigers for the second game of their series on Friday.
I’ll examine whether tonight’s pitching matchup justifies an unusually low total in my free Royals vs. Tigers predictions for August 2.
Royals vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Over 6.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
There’s no denying that Tarik Skubal has been an absolute revelation for the Detroit Tigers this year. The 27-year-old lefty is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young, having gone 12-3 with an MLB-best 2.35 ERA so far this season.
But as good as Skubal has been, can anything justify a 6.5-run total in an MLB game in 2024? That’s the question we’re examining today. The Kansas City Royals are a strong offensive team, averaging 4.72 runs per game behind Bobby Witt Jr. & Co., and the Tigers are hardly anemic themselves, even as they put up a below-average 4.18 runs per game.
Even in Skubal’s games, it’s not as though the Tigers are regularly playing in games that end up with totals of six or fewer runs. That’s happened just once in Skubal’s last five starts, and just six times in his 21 starts this season. His two starts against KC have been good but hardly incredible, as he’s allowed five earned runs in 12 innings — proving it has a good enough lineup to get to even the best pitchers in the majors.
Then we have Royals starter Cole Ragans. An All-Star himself, Ragans has put up a 3.36 ERA this year, and his 2.69 FIP suggests his top-line numbers could potentially be even better. Outside of a little wildness — he leads the majors with 11 wild pitches — there’s little the Royals can complain about from the fifth-year starter.
But Ragans isn’t unhittable and has struggled a bit as of late. In his last five starts, he's thrown to a much more pedestrian 4.45 ERA, giving up 3+ earned runs in three of those appearances. And like Skubal, it’s not as though KC regularly plays to low totals when Ragans pitches, as the total has been seven runs or higher in 13 of his 22 starts. In his one start against Detroit this year, Ragans was fantastic, but the final was still 8-3, well Over the total.
It’s not at all impossible that Skubal and Ragans combine for a 1-0 nailbiter, but that’s not a probable outcome. The 6.5-run total is just too low, creating a strong probability of the Over hitting. It would be reasonable to consider betting this Over at -150 odds or so, and with some books making this the main line, it’s just too good an opportunity to ignore.
Royals vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 6.5
Tigers moneyline
Matt Vierling to record a hit
I like the Over tonight given the extraordinarily low total. To use that as the centerpiece of my SGP tonight, I’ll combine it with a bet on Detroit to win the game outright. Skubal is just too good to bet against, even when the Tigers are playing a team that’s far better overall.
I’m also tossing in a bet on Matt Vierling to get at least a hit tonight. Vierling has hit successfully in five of his last six games and is hitting .261 against left-handed pitching overall this season, 15 points better than against righties.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Tigers odds
Royals vs Tigers live odds
Royals vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-185) | Detroit -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Kansas City +105 | Detroit -125
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Royals vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Royals have been an excellent moneyline team this year, winning 10 units for backers, while the Tigers are down about seven units on the season.
- Detroit is 14-7 in Skubal’s starts this year, while Kansas City has gone 10-12 when Ragans has been on the hill in 2024.
- The Over has gone 59-47 in Detroit’s games this year. The Under has the 61-46 advantage in Kansas City’s games.
- The Tigers are playing to an average total of 8.64 runs, similar to the Royals’ average total of 8.52 runs.
Royals vs Tigers trend
The Over is 5-2 in the seven matchups between the Royals and Tigers this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Tigers.
Royals vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Friday, 8-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (7-7, 3.37 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (12-3, 2.35 ERA) |
Royals vs Tigers latest injuries
Royals vs Tigers weather
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