Royals vs Twins Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Kansas City Royals will look to avoid getting swept by the Minnesota Twins on May 29. 

K.C. is second in the AL Central and owes much of that success to today's starter, Seth Lugo, and my Royals vs. Twins prediction is targeting the Under on his earned prop. Find out more below in my MLB picks for this AL tilt.

Royals vs Twins prediction

My best bet
Seth Lugo Under 2.5 earned runs (-140 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Seth Lugo worked out of the bullpen for much of his career but is having a breakout campaign as a starter at 34 years old — pitching to a sizzling 1.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through 11 starts.

Statcast analytics don't show much faith in Lugo, who is in the Bottom 30th percentile in barrel rate and has an expected ERA of 3.74. However, with 72 1/3 innings under his belt this year, it's tough to overlook Lugo's production. It's also worth mentioning Lugo's first start of the season came against the Minnesota Twins and he allowed just two hits across six innings of shutout ball. 

The Twins have struggled against righties this season, ranking just 28th in the majors in batting average (.219) and 20th in OPS (.684). They've also had a tough time scoring at home, plating just 3.78 runs per game.

With Lugo allowing fewer than 2.5 earned runs in 10 of 11 starts this season, taking the Under 2.5 on his earned runs seems like a no-brainer.

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Royals vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)

Seth Lugo Under 2.5 earned runs

Bailey Ober Under 1.5 walks

Salvador Perez Over 1.5 total bases

+450 at bet365

The Twins are starting Bailey Ober, who was lit up by the Kansas City Royals in his first outing this season but has been solid since. Ober has fewer than 1.5 walks in six of his last eight starts and ranks in the Top 25th percentile in walk rate. The Royals are just 25th in the majors in walk rate (7.6%), with that number ticking down to 6.7% on the road. 

Salvador Perez is slashing .322/.384/.518 with 103 total bases in 54 games. He has an xSLG of .590 and ranks in the Top 10th percentile in barrel rate, which bodes well for his success against Ober, who is in the Bottom 25th percentile in barrel rate. 

Unlike other K.C. sluggers, Perez has been hitting the ball well away from home and has a history of raking at Target Field — slugging .550 in his career.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Royals vs Twins odds

Royals vs Twins live odds

Royals vs Twins opening odds

• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-180) | Minnesota -1.5 (+150)
• Moneyline: Kansas City +110 | Minnesota -130
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Royals vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis

• Money is starting to come in on the Under and while the total hasn't moved off 7.5, the Under is now juiced as much as -125.
• The Twins took the first two games in this series, and they've gone 23-11 in their last 34 games overall.
• The Royals have a 34-22 record but have gone just 13-14 on the road.
• Ober has a 4.33 ERA in 10 starts, but his xERA is 3.41, which is much closer to his 3.43 ERA in 26 starts last year.

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Royals vs Twins trend

The Twins have hit the first five innings team total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.24 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs Twins

Royals vs Twins game info

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