Will Shohei Ohtani Win 2023 American League Triple Crown Odds and Predictions

Shohei Ohtani is the best baseball player on the planet and it's not even close. 

There, I said it. No sugar coating it, no beating around the bush, just a cold hard fact that for some is hard to swallow. 

Since joining the league in 2018, Ohtani has given us wow moments nearly every time he steps up to the plate, all while toeing the rubber every five days. He's a walking highlight reel and he's soon going to be the highest-paid baseball player ever despite the Angels being nowhere near the top of the World Series odds board. 

Oh, and he's got a very realistic chance at winning the American League Triple Crown all while pitching to a 3.07 ERA for the Angels this season and being the AL MVP odds runaway leader. 

Sportsbooks are now offering odds on his chances to do so, so let's break it down the best way we can. 

Shohei Ohtani odds to win AL Triple Crown  

Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook on August 22

The Triple Crown club

Before we break down Ohtani's chase for another historic feat, we must first understand how difficult winning the Triple Crown can be.

The last player to win this elusive award was Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera in 2012. That season he led the AL with 44 home runs, 139 RBIs, and a .330 batting average. Beyond him, you have to go back 45 years to 1967 when Boston's Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat with 44 home runs, 121 RBIs, and a .321 average.

Below is a list of players to accomplish the feat since 1920 when RBIs started being tracked:

Player Name	Year	League
Miguel Cabrera	2012	AL
Carl Yastrzemski	1967	AL
Frank Robinson	1966	AL
Mickey Mantle	1956	AL
Ted Williams	1947*, 1942	AL
Joe Medwick	1937	NL
Lou Gehrig	1934*	AL
Jimmie Fox**	1933	AL
Chuck Klein	1933	NL
Roger Hornsby	1925*, 1922	NL

* indicates won MLB Triple Crown.
** indicates Philadelphia Athletics 

That's it. That's the list. Ten players over the last 102 seasons have led the Majors in batting average, home runs, and RBIs at the end of the year. 

Some recent close calls include:

• Aaron Judge, 2022: Led the AL in home runs (62) and RBIs (131) but fell short by five points (.316) to Luis Arraez (.321).
  
  
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 2021: Tied for the AL lead in home runs (48), second in batting average (.311), and fifth in RBIs (10 behind leader Salvador Perez.)
  
  
• Christian Yelich, 2018: First in batting average, but missed by two home runs to Nolan Arenado and one RBI to Javier Baez. 

If Ohtani can accomplish this feat, his name will go down in history as one of the best players to ever play the game — if he's not already in the discussion. 

Does he have the ability to win this award? Absolutely. Will the situation in LA allow him to? Maybe but it'll be tough. 

The chase is on

It remains one of the greatest mysteries in modern sports how the Los Angeles Angels employ both Ohtani and Mike Trout and have still not made the postseason once with both of them on the roster.  

Ohtani has essentially done everything the Angels could have asked him to do and then some. He is the runaway leader in the American League in home runs with 43 — 10 more than Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White sox — thanks to moonshots like this: 

Shohei Ohtani BLASTS his American League-leading 41st home run ???? ????

(via @MLB) pic.twitter.com/UG6zNueyvI

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 13, 2023

He's third in RBIs with 89 behind only Adolis Garcia (93) and Kyle Tucker (92). Finally, Ohtani is third in batting average at .306 behind Bo Bichette (.320) and leader Yandy Diaz (.325). 

Barring an injury that'll keep Ohtani out of the lineup, it's safe to say nobody will catch his home run tally.

Catching Garcia and Tucker is more than possible as he's within touching distance, but if we look at it from a team perspective, the Rangers and Astros are both high-powered offenses that put up runs in bunches. Given the team's offensive averages, driving in runs at a higher clip is going to be tough for Ohtani down the stretch. 

In terms of batting average, this will be the toughest category for Ohtani to make up the difference. Ohtani is batting .313 in August through 18 games which is solid, but Diaz's league-leading .325 average is no joke.

He's been a beast at the plate this month, notching 27 hits so far in August while having his best month from a BA perspective at .355. Catching Bichette may be easier as the young shortstop is making a return from an injury, but he picked up where he left off with three hits in 10 AB's in two games vs. Cincinnati. 

Given that teams may be inclined to intentionally pitch around Ohtani (the only real threat the Angels have) his average might not drop too far, but he'll have limited chances to make inroads on Diaz. 

History for Ohtani? 

I am all in on Shohei Ohtani. He's the best baseball player I've ever seen, and when all is said and done he'll go down as one of the greatest players to ever play the game. 

What he does on a nightly basis at the plate (and on the mound every fifth day) is incredible and I believe his next contract is going to be a bargain despite it likely being upwards of $550 million. 

I believe he's got the AL home run race locked up, and I believe he'll find a way to drag his team through September and take the lead in the RBI category. However, increasing his batting average to around .330 and overtaking Diaz is not going to be easy and I don't believe he'll accomplish it. 

While I don't recommend laying the -3,330 juice, no is definitely the play here. 

My best bet: Will Shohei Ohtani Win AL Triple Crown: No (-3,500 at DraftKings)

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