Last night’s +300 win for the Detroit Tigers over the Toronto Blue Jays showed the value this Detroit team can have even in a lopsided pitching matchup. Detroit has a huge advantage in the later innings with an elite and rested bullpen, and is certainly worth considering this afternoon at +260 to an injured Toronto offense.
Find out where I think the best MLB picks and predictions are for this Saturday, July 30 matinee between the Tigers and Blue Jays.
Tigers vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The books opened the Tigers as +225 road dogs but the visitors have been getting longer and currently sit at +260. Detroit closed at +300 last night in a starting pitching matchup that is as lopsided as it gets. Tonight’s total opened at 8.5 and quickly hit 9 — where it also closed yesterday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Tigers vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 7/30/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tigers vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, Sportsnet
Tigers vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Drew Hutchison (1-4, 4.84 ERA): The former Blue Jay has made his way into the Detroit rotation after signing his fourth (!) minor league contract since last February. Detroit assigned him to the minors in June, he refused, elected free agency, and then signed a minor league deal just a week later. Not confusing at all.
Through six starts this season, all coming since June, Hutchison has a 4.97 ERA and teams are hitting .274 off of him, but right-handed hitters are posting a .695 OPS off him, which is important, as the Jays have a loaded RHH lineup.
Ross Stripling (5-3, 3.10 ERA): The Blue Jays have been very lucky that Ross Stripling has shined this season since moving to the rotation full-time. In his nine starts since joining the rotation, he's allowed more than two runs just twice but his leash still isn’t very long.
New manager John Schneider pulled Stripling after just 62 pitches in his first start under the new bench boss on Sunday. He doesn’t miss many bats (28th percentile in Whiff%) but gets a ton of weakly-hit groundballs (47.3% GB%) and doesn’t walk many (92nd percentile BB%).
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Stripling’s last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Tigers vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Jays are without centerfielder and leadoff man George Springer, and shortstop Bo Bichette is also banged up — although Bichette was able to pinch hit last night. The result last night was a two-run performance that resulted in a Detroit 4-2 win as +300 underdogs. The Detroit offense is the worst unit in baseball, but tonight might be another night where its elite bullpen can keep it in the game.
The Jays managed just one hit over 5-plus innings against the Detroit bullpen last night as its relievers rank as the No. 4 unit, per Fangraphs — ahead of the Astros and Dodgers. The Jays didn’t see Detroit’s best relievers on Thursday, meaning another full dose of the A-pen could be in store for the Jays today.
The Detroit Tigers are really doing a full audition of their potential bullpen trade chips tonight
— Tyson Shushkewich (@Tyson_MLB) July 30, 2022
Stripling has certainly pitched above his talents with a 3.10 ERA that is more than a full run above his projections. He pitches to contact, and we saw in his last start (which was his first under new manager John Schneider), that the shot-callers might not want him to see the opposing lineup a third time through the order. He saw just 17 batters in the abbreviated outing.
Stripling also had just two swings and misses on 64 pitches which are incredibly low, even by his standards. If the Jays want to play the bullpen game, the advantage they have as the favorite diminishes significantly. There is only one strength on this Detroit team, and that’s in the bullpen.
If the Tigers can keep it close, the edge they have in the later innings is worth a play on them on the moneyline at +260. I think the opening price of +225 was more accurate.
Drew Hutchison projects as a better starter than yesterday’s Bryan Garcia, who gave up two runs and went only 3 2-3 innings before turning things over to the relievers. The Jays have managed just eight runs over their last three games, and the injuries to Springer and Bichette aren’t doing the offense any favors for today’s matinee.
The moneyline is just getting too long not to hit, with the Tigers having a huge advantage in the later innings and two starting pitchers who don’t project to go deep.
Prediction: Tigers moneyline (+260 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Hutchison hasn’t topped 85 pitches in any start this year and his total outs markets aren’t available for a reason: he isn’t going deep. That’s bad news for the Jays’ offense that went 1-for-17 with a walk and eight strikeouts vs. the Detroit bullpen last night. All those same arms will be available again this afternoon.
The Tigers have a great bullpen (3.08 ERA, third in MLB), but their low scores are thanks to a brutal offense:
— Jordan Horrobin (@JordanHorrobin) July 19, 2022
- 3.13 runs/game (30th)
- .619 OPS (29th)
There are more DET hitters with sub-70 wRC+ (5) than hitters with above-average wRC+ (3). Yikes!
Stripling should keep the Detroit offense in check for his 16 or so outs. The anemic Detroit offense is priced into this total, but the Jays’ offense might be overvalued in this spot.
Hutchison is harder on right-handed hitters and the Jays are loaded with those. We could also see some weaker lineups thanks to the quick turnaround with today’s 3:07 pm ET start.
The Jays’ bullpen is usually one to target, but with a poor offensive team like the Tigers, things should be very tight in the later innings for both clubs.
I’m playing the Under 9 here but would stay away if this number falls to 8.5 after the lineups are announced.
Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
It’s not easy finding a market to bet on a bullpen, so instead, we’re looking at a slight market overreaction to a lineup change.
Cavan Biggio batted out of the leadoff spot yesterday thanks to the injury to Springer. Usually, Raimel Taipai takes that spot, but Schneider gave the duties to a guy getting on base at a .264 clip over his last 15 games. The move could be short-lived after he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts while Taipai went 1-for-3 with an RBI. Biggio is a career .233 hitter.
Biggio’s run market is based heavily on his spot in the lineup, and at -140 to score a run, the books are pricing him as the leadoff hitter today. However, there's a good chance he hits further down the order, and if he bats seventh, his Under 0.5 runs should be priced at -160, not the +105 it currently is.
Even if he does hit in the No. 1 spot, I like this play, as he could see half of his at-bats versus the Detroit bullpen and not the majority of them vs. Hutchison.
I hit Taipai Under 0.5 runs at +105 yesterday with success and now his Under is paying -160 because the books thought he was going to bat leadoff. We could have the same situation here again today.
Cavan Biggio prop pick: Under 0.5 runs (+105)
