The Cleveland Guardians ground out a win with their season on the line, forcing the Detroit Tigers to pack their bags for a do-or-die game in enemy territory.
My Tigers vs. Guardians predictions see the pitchers being front and center in this game — as they have been all series long.
Let’s take a closer look with my MLB picks for Saturday, October 12. For more on this series finale, Phil Naessens has drummed up three top-shelf Tigers vs. Guardians props.
Tigers vs Guardians prediction
Who will win Tigers vs Guardians Game 5?
It’s pretty hard to go against the Detroit Tigers in this spot. Although the Cleveland Guardians have more star power at the plate, the Tigers are giving the ball to arguably the best pitcher in the sport and they have a top-notch bullpen backing him up. It will be tough for both offenses to score. The edge has to go to the team with an 18-4 starter who allowed only one run in two starts against Cleveland this season.
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet
Pick
Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Matthew Boyd has piled up the strikeouts since returning from Tommy John surgery. He’s made nine starts and cleared this line in eight, averaging an impressive 5.7 punchouts per appearance.
He has shown the ability to get the job done even without an extended run. Boyd threw 80 pitches or fewer on four separate occasions and still recorded at least four strikeouts each time.
That includes Game 2 in this very series when Boyd tossed only 72 pitches and didn’t complete five innings yet still picked up five Ks along the way.
It’s not unreasonable to expect that kind of efficiency again vs. the Tigers, who are strikeout-prone vs. lefties, particularly in their current form.
They posted a 31.2 K% against LHP in the final month of the regular season, a higher rate than all but the Texas Rangers.
It’s worth noting the Tigers hit only .199 against southpaws in that span and generated a putrid 3.2% barrel rate. They struggle to string together hits vs. left-handed arms and there is next to no power in their lineup.
That makes it less likely Boyd will run into trouble, which is certainly important given the leash will be short in a must-win game.
Tigers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 strikeouts
Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 walks
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 hits
Tarik Skubal has started two games against the Guardians this season. Like seemingly every other club, the Guardians lost those battles vs. Detroit’s ace.
Skubal pitched 14 innings and allowed only one run while issuing just a single free pass. His ability to limit walks against the Guardians is par for the course. Skubal has gone Under this line in eight consecutive starts, walking just three total batters.
It’s hard to imagine Jose Ramirez will bow out of the playoffs quietly. He’s one of the best and most consistent hitters in the sport and is batting only .143 in this series. Skubal is a top-tier arm but Ramirez hit .348 against lefties this season and is too good not to stay quiet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Guardians odds
Tigers vs Guardians live odds
Tigers vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -130 | Cleveland +110
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+150) | Cleveland +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-105) | Under 6 (-115)
Tigers vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline has moved slightly towards Cleveland since opening, with the home side now trading at +106 at Pinnacle.
- Detroit has only been favored in two of the last 10 against Cleveland. Both were Tarik Skubal starts, and both resulted in Tigers victories.
- This game opened with an already low total of 6.0 runs. The market is suggesting it’s not low enough, with Pinnacle now pricing the Over of 5.5 at -113.
- Four of the last five games between these two sides have ended in a shutout for the victor.
Tigers vs Guardians trend
Jose Ramirez has recorded a hit in 72% of his home games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Tigers vs Guardians weather
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