After a mid-May slump, the New York Yankees appear to be rolling again. They've won seven of their last ten and just swept the L.A. Angels. They go into today's game with a record of 36-15, which is good for the best in baseball, and they currently hold a five-game lead in the AL East.
As of late, the Detroit Tigers have gotten fairly hot themselves. The Tigers just took four of five from the division-leading Twins and are also 7-3 in their last ten games. They are 21-30 on the season and a team that I’ve identified to look at in the adjusted win total markets in the future.
Find out who wins in our free MLB picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Yankees on Friday, June 3rd.
Tigers vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened up as one of the largest favorites of the entire season at an eye-popping -350 across the board. The Tigers took some little money, but the number has stayed there. The total opened up at eight and has dipped to 7.5 in a few spots.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Tigers vs Yankees predictions
- Prediction: Yankees F5 -1.5 (-115)
- Prediction: Yankees F5 TT Over 2.5 (-110)
- Best bet: SGP – Judge to hit a HR + Yankees -1.5 (+450)
Picks made on 6/3/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tigers vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
• Date: Friday, June 3, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Tigers vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Elvin Rodriguez (0-0, 6.17 ERA): Rodriguez is an unknown pitcher. We saw him blasted in his first start, where he barely made it through two innings allowing four earned runs on three hits vs. the White Sox. A start later, he settled in for a full five innings but still gave up the same amount of runs against the Twins. He is coming off his best start against Cleveland, where he posted four scoreless innings.
Rodriguez is definitely what you'd define as a power pitcher. The fastball makes up more than half of his pitches and has decent velocity.
Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.12 ERA): This season has been a mildly successful start. In May, Cole was quite good. He surrendered five earned runs vs. Baltimore but aside from that, put in some quality performances against divisional foes. He may not put up a bunch of scoreless innings, but he's going to do a good job going deep into games and limiting damage.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Tigers: Austin Meadows CF (Out), Robbie Grossman LF (Out), Victor Reyes LF (Out), Tyler Alexander RP (Out).
Yankees: Josh Donaldson 3B (Out), Giancarlo Stanton DH (Out), Chad Greene RP (Out), Aroldis Chapman RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 21-6 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Yankees
Tigers vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Yankees are one of the most significant favorites of the MLB season thus far. Given the public and their love affair with betting them, they may be the actual largest favorite of the season by first pitch tonight. The contrarian in me loves that.
The contrarian in me also loves a good Gerrit Cole fade. As previously stated, he's been solid this year but has had his issues with hard contact. That being said, I can't do it. I can't envision any other scenario than a Yankees thrashing tonight, and that's what I'll be backing.
I'm not sure what the career outlook is for Elvin Rodriguez, but the problem for him right now is giving up hard contact. That makes New York a nightmare matchup for him, particularly in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez's first two starts were both games in which he gave up four earned runs and was hit pretty hard. Both of those teams — the Twins and White Sox — had something in common. They both ranked in the Top 10 in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, as both do an excellent job of making solid contact. The Yankees may do the best job in baseball of this, as the only team in MLB in the Top 3 in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. That's a scary thought for Rodriguez.
My projections love the Yankees here today as well. The most common simulated score is approximately 8-2. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a bit higher than that. It's exceptionally bullish and assuredly a writer's jinx to say that, but this seems to be a matchup tailored for Yankees hitters.
That said, I'm going to ignore some elements of the bullpen that I'm a bit iffy about and back the Yankees on the first-five run line. My projections see this cashing 62% of the time, which is a nice edge.
Prediction: Yankees first five -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
More bad news for Rodriguez: New York happens to favor the pitch he throws the most.
The Bombers love the fastball. They've feasted on those pitchers all season, and it's hard to imagine that changing anytime soon. Against power pitchers this season, the Yankees have an MLB-high slugging percentage of .448. They also see an increase in their OBS and home run ratio.
Over the past week, we've had some success catching market inefficiencies in first five team totals. We've hit them for three straight days, and I'll look to continue doing that until an adjustment is made from the early season priors.
I feel this number is priced lower than it should be, maybe by an entire run. My projections say the Yankees go over this number close to 75% of the time. That's a similar percentage to what it said about the Braves yesterday, and Atlanta soared over that.
New York, lately, has made a habit of getting to pitchers early. Aside from their last game against the Angels, the Yankees had scored in the first two innings in six straight games. So, if they do that today, I think it may snowball effect on the 24-year-old making his first career start in Yankee Stadium.
Give me the New York first five-inning team total today. It's one of my favorite bets on today's slate.
Prediction: Yankees first five team total Over 2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Why not go after a hitting prop to finish the complete fade of the Tigers' starting pitcher?
Aaron Judge is squarely in the AL MVP race, and making headlines, particularly in nationally televised games, can only help him in that quest. So, what better way to do that than with a home run?
Judge has now gone yard 19 times this season. Let's break down those:
- Just about half have come in games played at Yankee Stadium.
- Over half came in nationally televised games.
- Over half came during night games.
- Over 75% came against fastballs.
We get Judge in a night game, at Yankee Stadium, on national television against a fast-ball first pitcher. What's not to like?
Perhaps some of these things are anecdotal or something more to them. Either way, adding that to the above handicap? I'm certainly willing to take my chance. I'll pair it with the Yankees run line for an attractive price.
Pick: Same-Game Parlay - Aaron Judge to hit a home run + Yankees -1.5 (+450 at DraftKings)
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