A dark cloud in the form of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract situation hangs over the Toronto Blue Jays' 2025 season.
However, there is a chance that everything falls the right way, and the Jays could turn out to be a dark horse in the American League.
Below, I break down the season ahead with Toronto Blue Jays odds and make some MLB picks. Will it be stormy days ahead? Or sunshine and roses? Check out my MLB predictions for the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays season to find out.
2025 Toronto Blue Jays odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| World Series | +6000 |
| AL pennant | +2800 |
| AL East title | +1100 |
| Make the playoffs | +150 |
| Win Over 78.5 games | -143 |
Best Blue Jays futures bet
To make the playoffs (+150)
While the spectre of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s impending free agency looms above this Toronto Blue Jays season, there is still a chance everything will fall into place, and they’ll compete in what looks to be a wide-open American League in 2025.
The pitching staff should be the strength and will keep them in most games. The Top 6 of this lineup is solid (particularly when Daulton Varsho gets healthy), and if a couple of the young bats pop off, Toronto could be a tough out.
But opportunity might be the key here. There isn’t a contending team in the AL without at least some big question marks heading into the 2025 season.
The New York Yankees have already lost Gerrit Cole for the year, and there is a massive Juan Soto-sized hole in their lineup. The Baltimore Orioles pitching staff looks much worse than last season. Can teams like the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals repeat their success from last year or will their upward trajectories be stunted?
If the Blue Jays can block out the distractions and just play ball, they can be a sneaky contender for a playoff spot. And at plus money, the market has overcorrected.
Blue Jays offseason moves
Additions
Anthony Santander (OF), Andres Gimenez (2B),
Max Scherzer (SP), Jeff Hoffman (RP),
Yimi Garcia (RP), Nick Sandlin (RP).
Subtractions
Jordan Romano (RP), Spencer Horwitz (1B).
Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Despite missing out on the likes of Juan Soto, Roki Saski, Pete Alonso — hell, just name any top free agent — if the Blue Jays had actually signed Guerrero to an extension, you could make the case that this offseason was a home run.
But they haven’t, so it’s not. That said, they added more power to the lineup with the addition of Anthony Santander. They improved the up-the-middle defense with Andres Gimenez. And as long as Jeff Hoffman can stay healthy, he’s a great replacement for Jordan Romano.
If Toronto can squeeze any ounce of baseball left out of Max Scherzer, the roster is certainly in much better shape than it was heading into 2024.
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Blue Jays betting predictions for 2025
What will win Blue Jays bets: The starting rotation
If Scherzer’s thumb doesn’t fall off, this will be one of the deepest rotations in the American League. Jose Berrios is coming off his best season as a Blue Jay with a 3.60 ERA. Bowden Francis’ second-half breakout earned him AL Pitcher of the month in August.
Then there is ace Kevin Gausman. All-in-all, his 2024 was solid. He ended the year with a 3.84 ERA and struck out 162 batters. The thing is, he had a 3.25 ERA and struck out 221 batters a year in his first two seasons in Toronto.
Gausman feels good coming out of camp, saying he’s "sturdier" in hopes of keeping his velocity up and mechanics in top form. He's also added a cutter to his repertoire to help keep hitters, especially lefties, off balance.
If he gets back to the guy he was in 2023-24, this team will prevent a lot of runs. At the very least, if the bats aren’t consistent the Blue Jays should be a prime candidate for first five-inning Unders.
What will lose Blue Jays bets: Lack of oomph in the lineup
We all know Guerrero has pop in his bat. But even he got off to a slow start when it came to dingers in 2024 and ended the year with 30. No other Blue Jay had more than 19 and Toronto hit the fifth-fewest home runs last season.
Now, for all of this Blue Jays front office's faults, it brought in Santander, who hit 44 home runs for the Orioles last season and has clobbered 123 over the last four. The Jays are also hoping for bounce-back years for Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk.
But if those guys don’t produce, or the team suffers some injuries, they will be relying on a lot of unproven bats to produce for them in 2024. And while Gimenez offers some defensive help up the middle, his bat isn't his calling card.
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Blue Jays star player prop
Bo Bichette - Comeback Player of the Year (+700)
The 2024 season was one to forget for Bichette. An injury-plagued campaign limited the Blue Jays shortstop to just 81 games, and he didn’t look much like the player we had seen the last few seasons when he was on the field.
The two-time All-Star developed a massive hole in his swing, as he struggled big time to handle breaking balls and offspeed pitches, pitch types he had crushed for years. It also meant his power was zapped, and he hit just four home runs in 336 plate appearances. I know it's just spring training, but he's gone deep four times in 56 PA in Grapefruit League action.
This was somewhat stunning for a guy who was in the Top 10 in expected batting averages in each of the last four seasons and led the AL in hits twice. If Bichette can stay healthy and improve his approach at the plate, a return to form is on the table.
If he returns to the guy who gets close to 200 hits a season, he’ll have a great shot at this award, particularly when you consider the front-runners ahead of him are the perpetually injured Mike Trout and Jacob deGrom.
Blue Jays bonus bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - MLB hits leader (+1000)
There is a chance that Vladito's contract situation is a huge distraction for the Blue Jays this season. But Vladdy knows this is a contract year, and he will go on another tear to increase his value even further.
Guerrero finished third in MLB in hits last season with 199, 12 behind leader Bobby Witt Jr. However... because he finished the season so well, people forget that Vladdy got off to a slow start, hitting just .234 over his first 36 games.
If Vladdy can put together a complete season, there’s no doubt he can lead the MLB in hits.
Not intended for use in MA.
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