MLB Trade Deadline Odds: Which Stars Are on the Move?

The MLB trade deadline is nearly here with teams scrambling to get into position for a playoff push or to lick their wounds and look to next year.

With the expanded playoff format, more teams are within striking distance of that final wild-card spot, so big moves may be few and far between.

Still, some major names have been bandied about in trade rumors and I'm going to look at a few of them and their MLB odds of being dealt by Tuesday, July 30.

All odds as of 7-28-2024. Odds concern which team a player will play for immediately following the 2024 trade deadline.

Blake Snell next team odds

Team
San Francisco Giants	-175
Baltimore Orioles	+600
Los Angeles Dodgers	+650
New York Yankees	+1,000
Any other team	+1,000
San Diego Padres	+1,100
Atlanta Braves	+1,200
Boston Red Sox	+1,300
New York Mets	+1,400
St. Louis Cardinals	+1,800

We're adding Blake Snell to our breakdown on Sunday afternoon after his name has emerged in trade rumors in recent days. After a rough start to his San Francisco Giants tenure this year that included a late start to training camp — because he didn't sign until late March — and time on the IL, Snell has found a groove on the mound. In four starts since returning from injury, the reigning NL Cy Young winner has allowed two total earned runs in 24 innings (0.75 ERA) with 30 strikeouts. This culminated with him punching out a career-high 15 over six innings vs. the Colorado Rockies.

There will likely be demand for his services but I can't see the Giants moving him. For one, he's on a one-year contract and while he has an option for 2025, it's a player option. If Snell pitches like he has recently for the second half, it should bump up his value on the open market this winter. Secondly, while the Giants have a losing record, they're not far from a wild card. Robbie Ray just came back, Jordan Hicks has been moved to the bullpen, and the club still has Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison. This is a solid pitching staff, so it makes sense to hold steady unless they're blown away. And if they miss out on the postseason, they can enter 2025 with a healthy rotation.

Pick: San Francisco Giants (-175)

Tarik Skubal next team odds

Team
Detroit Tigers	-600
Los Angeles Dodgers	+700
Baltimore Orioles	+800
Atlanta Braves	+1,200
New York Yankees	+2,000
Boston Red Sox	+2,000
Any other team	+2,000
San Diego Padres	+2,200
Arizona Diamondbacks	+2,500
St. Louis Cardinals	+2,500

The betting odds for Tarik Skubal's team after next Tuesday's trade deadline are spot on. Yes, the Detroit Tigers are in fourth place in the AL Central, but they have gone 7-3 in their last 10 and are just two games below .500 at 50-52. Skubal is their best player and is the current frontrunner in the AL Cy Young odds. He is 11-3 with a 2.34 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts in 123 innings. He's a legitimate frontline starter, and they are extremely hard to come by, especially with the amount of team control remaining before he's a free agent.

Skubal isn't scheduled to hit the open market until after the 2026 season, so any team potentially prying him from Detroit will have him on the roster for the next two seasons. For teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers, contenders who have been dealt a ton of bad injury luck in their rotations, Skubal is obviously a tantalizing target. However, it will come with a massive price tag as the New York Post's Joel Sherman suggested on MLB Network:

This is what @Joelsherman1 thinks the Orioles would have to give up to get Tarik Skubal and Jason Foley.

What do you think? pic.twitter.com/a9fNjcycAy

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 23, 2024

Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, and potentially more is likely what it will take to convince Detroit to move its ace. Remember, the Tigers were seen as a potential dark horse to win the AL Central before the season after finishing second in the division a year ago.

The Tigers already did the rebuild. This was supposed to be the start of their contention window if everything went well. For as good as Skubal has been, Javier Baez has been awful, Spencer Torkelson is in Triple-A, Kerry Carpenter broke his back, and Casey Mize continued to disappoint relative to his status as a first-overall pick before also landing on the IL.

Trading Skubal sends the message that Detroit miscalculated its trajectory and would signify a step back to retool. The Orioles match up best and can trump anything the Dodgers drum up if they so choose. Baltimore, however, appears more keen on trading veterans like Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. That report could also be a bit of gamesmanship to lower the Tigers' ask, but Passan suggests the Orioles aren't expected to go the blockbuster route. 

Still, unless a team blows Detroit away, Skubal will stick around. His rotation partner Jack Flaherty is far more likely to be traded since he's on a one-year contract and has pitched better than he has in years. 

For all those reasons, I think Skubal ultimately stays put until the offseason or the next trade deadline if Detroit falters again. At -310, it's not worth the wager.

Pick: Detroit Tigers (-310) *prediction made on Thursday, July 25

Yusei Kikuchi next team odds

Team
Los Angeles Dodgers	+450
Baltimore Orioles	+500
Any other team	+500
Atlanta Braves	+550
Toronto Blue Jays	+600
Houston Astros	+600
Cleveland Guardians	+650
Minnesota Twins	+900
Milwaukee Brewers	+900
Boston Red Sox	+900

Yusei Kikuchi will not be on the Toronto Blue Jays roster by this time next week. The left-hander has been effective, if wildly inconsistent, during his Toronto tenure.

He was better in 2023 when he posted a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts. This year, he's 4-9 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but he's been durable and has been more undone by the occasional blow-up instead of getting consistently tagged up by the opposition.

As an expiring contract, he will cost far less in a trade than Skubal or, say, Garrett Crochet. The Jays have said they are not going to entertain deals involving talent under contract beyond this season, so Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and others are probably staying put.

Because of that desire to retool and try again next season, they probably aren't looking for prospect capital. This makes the Orioles a logical trade partner despite being in the same division. The aforementioned Mountcastle and Mullins could both fit in Toronto's lineup, especially with Justin Turner's and Kevin Kiermaier's days being numbered. Both are under team control through at least next year and would improve a stagnant lineup.

The Blue Jays likely wouldn't get both for Kikuchi alone, but more names could be added. While others could rival a potential Baltimore offer, I like this fit best.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles (+450) *prediction made on Thursday, July 25

Garrett Crochet next team odds

Team
Chicago White Sox	-250
Los Angeles Dodgers	+550
Baltimore Orioles	+900
Atlanta Braves	+1,100
San Diego Padres	+1,200
Any other team	+1,200
Boston Red Sox	+1,500
St. Louis Cardinals	+1,800
New York Yankees	+1,800
Arizona Diamondbacks	+2,000

As we established with Luis Robert's next team odds, the Chicago White Sox are terrible and desperate in almost equal measure. They are so far away from contention that they have almost no choice but to trade Garrett Crochet, their 25-year-old ace, who won't hit free agency until after 2026. Crochet is no stranger to injuries, undergoing Tommy John surgery early in 2022.

The White Sox can't afford to risk another injury, which would derail their chances at getting a reasonable return for the electric left-hander. Keeping him won't help them in the immediate future and they can't be counted on to be competitive again before he hits the open market.

The Dodgers might not have the right prospect capital to sway the Tigers on Skubal, but nabbing Crochet and Robert makes a ton of sense, especially if the White Sox are as desperate as they seem.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (+350) *prediction made on Thursday, July 25

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Brent Rooker next team odds

Team
Oakland A's	+100
Pittsburgh Pirates	+750
Cleveland Guardians	+800
Boston Red Sox	+800
Any other team	+800
Los Angeles Dodgers	+850
Kansas City Royals	+900
Seattle Mariners	+1,000
Atlanta Braves	+1,300
Philadelphia Phillies	+1,500

Finally, I wanted to include at least one position player. Sneakily, Oakland A's outfielder Brent Rooker might be the best available. I considered looking at Jazz Chisholm, but I'm not sold on the Miami Marlins actually trading their star — maybe more due to teams having cold feet for culture fit issues, which is insane. 

For now, I look at Rooker, who is slashing .291/.370/.578 with 23 home runs and 69 RBI in 88 games. A late bloomer, the 29-year-old isn't scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2027 season. But since he plays for the soon-to-be Sacramento A's, he might as well be packing his bags.

The Seattle Mariners need pop. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a fringe contender with plenty of enticing pitching prospects in the cupboard and likewise could use a bat or two. 

But I can't for the life of me understand why the Atlanta Braves are +1,000. They've treated Oakland like a talent pipeline for ages (Matt Olson, Sean Murphy) and are in dire need of adding an outfielder with Ronald Acuna Jr. done for the season and Michael Harris II sidelined. Atlanta brass can't feel comfortable with Jarred Kelenic, Eddie Rosario, and Adam Duvall as the primary outfield options, and they should do what they can to get Rooker. At 10/1, it's fantastic value.

Pick: Atlanta Braves (+1,000) *prediction made on Thursday, July 25

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