Twins vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Jays Get Best of Two-Way Scoring

Toronto dropped the opener, but both the trends and Minnesota's heavily-absent lineup are going to make that a tough feat to repeat. See why the Jays' bats can fuel a comfortable win in a high-scoring game with our Twins vs. Blue Jays picks.

John Reger - Contributor at Covers.com
John Reger • Contributor
Jun 4, 2022 • 08:45 ET • 4 min read
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Teoscar Hernandez Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays are going to be looking for revenge after the Minnesota Twins snapped their eight-game winning streak on Friday, winning 9-3. The Twins, who are in first place in the American League Central, had been in a slump before Friday’s victory, losing seven of their last 10. 

The Blue Jays are chasing the first-place New York Yankees, but with the loss, now see the Tampa Bay Rays in second place. 

Do the Jays get their revenge on Saturday? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Twins vs Blue Jays on June 4. 

Twins vs Blue Jays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Blue Jays opened at -141 and shot up as high as -175, while the lowest total is -154. The Twins began at +152 and that number has been bet down to +135 at several sportsbooks. The total has stayed at 9 with the Over at -110 and the Under at +100. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs Blue Jays predictions

Picks made on 6/4/2022 at 3:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Twins vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Saturday, June 4, 2022
First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports, Sportsnet

Twins vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Dylan Bundy (3-2, 4.76 ERA): Bundy’s season was interrupted the second week of May when he landed on the COVID-19 list. The 29-year-old right hander has had three no-decisions since returning to the Twins. His first start back on May 17th, he went three innings, shutting out the Oakland Athletics, allowing two hits and striking out three. 

He then had two starts against the Detroit Tigers five days apart. The first one on May 25 he went 5.2 innings, allowing one run on five hits while striking out six. His last start, five days ago, he went six innings, allowed four runs on nine hits and struck out just three. While his ERA his 4.76, that balloons to 5.48 over his last seven games 

Jose Berrios (3-2, 5.62 ERA): Berrios’ last two starts are a bit concerning, even if he didn’t get a decision in them. Against St. Louis 10 days ago, he went 6.1 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits, striking out seven. In his last start, he didn’t make it out of the third inning, surrendering six runs on six hits with just one strikeout. 

Now the 28-year-old righty returns to face the Twins, the team that he was a member of for five-plus seasons before being traded to the Blue Jays in 2021. He faced the Twins twice last year and was 1-1 against them, going a collective 12.2 innings, allowing six runs while striking out 16. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Twins: Josh Winder RP (Out), Carlos Correa SS (Out), Cody Stashak RP (Out), Miguel Sano 1B (Out), Randy Dobnak RP (Out), Max Kepler OF (Out), Emilio Pagán RP (Out), Caleb Thielbar RP (Out), Royce Lewis SS (Out), Trevor Megill RP (Out).
Blue Jays: George Springer OF (Questionable), Tim Mayza RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Twins are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Blue Jays

Twins vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

Losing  9-3 Friday in the first of a three-game series, the Toronto Blue Jays saw their eight-game winning streak snapped by the Minnesota Twins in the first of three. The loss also let the Tampa Bay Rays leap over them into second place in the AL East. The Blue Jays can ill afford to lose two games in a row. 

They send Jose Berrios to the mound, who has been erratic. Berrios got bombed in his last outing, going just 2.1 innings and allowing six runs on six hits. 

Berrios was effective last year when he faced his old team after the July 30th trade. He went 1-1 against them. In the first game he went 6.2 innings, allowing three runs on four hits and striking out six in the win. In the second appearance against the Twins, he gave up three runs on five hits in six innings and got the loss. 

Berrios should be motivated to do well against his old team, it’s just that his latest outing is concerning. 

Fortunately, the Twins are without several players due to injury and COVID-19 restrictions. Starting pitcher Sonny Gray is injured, as is rookie shortstop Royce Lewis, on top of starting shortstop Carlos Correa being out already. 

Four players weren’t allowed into Canada because they haven’t been vaccinated. The biggest name was Max Kepler. He was in the midst of a stellar season that saw him posting career-bests in batting average and on-base percentage. He also has six home runs. 

The Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last seven games versus a right-handed starter and 5-1 in their last six as the favorite, both of which favor them here. 

It was impressive that the Twins were able to down the Blue Jays in the first game, but with all the injuries, doing it twice in as many days won’t happen. Back Toronto to win this one comfortably.

Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 (+140 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Even with all the injuries, the Twins are hitting the Over, which is 6-1 in their last seven when facing a right-handed starter, and 5-1-1 when facing a righty on the road. 

The Blue Jays have been just as effective on the Over — 5-0 in their last five, with the same mark in their last five vs. right-handed starters. The Over is also 5-1 in the last six when they are the favorite and 5-1 in their last six when playing a team with a winning record. 

The combined ERA of the starting pitchers should help push this to the Over as well. Berrios has an ERA of 5.62 and Bundy checks in at 4.76. 

The Twins will definitely miss Max Kepler, but have other players have been pushing runs across the plate. Center fielder Byron Buxton has 12 homers and second baseman Jose Polanco leads the team with 26 RBI. 

Prediction: Over 9 (-110 at BetMGM)

Best bet

The Blue Jays should be able to get to Bundy, who hasn’t been as effective as earlier in the season before he went on the shelf with COVID-19. It might take him a couple more starts to get his earlier season form back. 

The Twins are without several key players, including Kepler and Correa. Two low-key absences that could really hurt the Twins are relief pitchers Caleb Thielbar and Emilio Pagán — two of the four that couldn’t make the trip due to vaccination status. The two combined to provide ambidextrous late-game relief, and cannot be counted on to keep the Jays bats at bay late.

With both starting pitchers having high ERAs, runs will be scored. I just think the Blue Jays will safely score more and win. 

Pick: Blue Jays moneyline and both teams score 3 or more runs (+210 at BetMGM)

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John Reger - Covers
Contributor

John Reger has been covering professional sports for more than 30 years. Some of the events he has attended are the NCAA basketball championships, The Masters, Rose Bowl, MLB, NHL, and NBA playoffs. He has taken that knowledge and has applied it to sports betting writing for the last 10 years.

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