Twins vs Guardians Predictions, Picks, Odds: Battenfield Gets Battered

The Minnesota Twins (18-14) have had a good hold over the AL Central early in the 2023 season but have dropped three of their last five against division mates. They will look to reaffirm their top spot in the division this weekend as they open a three-game set with the second-place Cleveland Guardians (14-17). The Guardians are in desperate need of a solid weekend performance, as they have dropped four of their last five games and have not secured a series win.

Can the Twins take advantage of a Guardians team that’s been the MLB's punching bag as of late or will Cleveland toughen up and prove it can hang with Minnesota in the AL Central?

Continue reading for free MLB picks and predictions for the Twins vs. Guardians matchup on Friday, May 5th.

Twins vs Guardians odds

Twins vs Guardians predictions

The Minnesota Twins have been the lone bright spot of the AL Central this season, a division that’s chock full of underwhelming performances elsewhere. The rest of the division is a combined 45-80 to start the season, which includes the likes of the bottom-dwelling Royals (8-24) and the severely underperforming White Sox (10-22).

The one team (as of today) that poses any kind of threat standings-wise is the Cleveland Guardians, who sit at 14-17 heading into this weekend's three-game set despite having lost four of their last five and having not won a series since April 16th.

They will lean on Peyton Battenfield, a 25-year-old rookie who has been roughed up a bit as of late after two impressive starts. After allowing just two earned runs, seven hits, and three walks across 10.2 innings in his first two starts, Battenfield has since allowed seven earned runs, nine hits, and eight walks in 6.2 innings in his last two starts.

Battenfield has the benefit of facing a not-so-potent Twins offense that has struggled much more than their winning record would suggest. They rank below league average in OPS (19th), wOBA (19th), wRC+ (17th), and strikeout rate (28th). 

Luckily for Minnesota, it has Bailey Ober taking the mound for Thursday's opening game. The third-year righty has had two starts this season and has allowed just two earned runs across those 10.4 innings (1.59 ERA).

He isn't one to zip pitches into the strike zone (19th percentile fastball velocity), but he's incredibly proficient at generating soft contact (90th percentile in HH% and 85th percentile in barrel rate). The towering 6'9" Ober is also genuinely unique in his ability to get as close to the plate as possible before releasing the ball, ranking in the 97th percentile in extension (how far off the mound a pitcher releases a pitch). 

And in a limited sample (35 combined plate appearances), Ober has had some good results against the Guardians. If we exclude Jose Ramirez (2-for-5), the rest of this roster has just five hits across 28 at-bats (.179 BA) and has generated zero walks.

Minnesota should be favored more given Ober's advantage over Battenfield alone.

My best bet: Twins moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

Twins vs Guardians moneyline analysis

There are advantages elsewhere for the Twins tonight and throughout this series. Although Cleveland's bullpen has pitched to a notably better 3.35 ERA than Minnesota's 3.73, some of the underlying advanced metrics suggest that could be a result of variance that is likely to regress at some point.

The Twins' relief arms have pitched to a 3.90 FIP (an ERA-esque metric that attempts to normalize fielding outcomes) compared to the Guardians 4.41 FIP. To help further illustrate that, Cleveland's relievers have allowed a .263 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is the seventh-lowest mark this year. Generally, those types of performance regress to a more normal number over time.

The Guardians also come into Thursday's game with potentially cold bats, having failed to score more than three runs in their last four games and averaging just 2.25 runs per game across that stretch. In fact, their hitting has been an even larger contributor to their struggles as of late than that.

Since April 18th they've ranked dead last in wRC+ and wOBA and seventh-worst in walk rate. They've actually been above league average in terms of not striking out, but when putting all the pieces together it points towards an inability to generate meaningful contact (second-worst SLG% during this time).

Twins vs Guardians Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 8.5 and although the number has stayed the same, the Over is now favorably juiced and points towards a potential move to 9.0.

Minnesota has played 15-14-3 to the Under (51.7%) on the year but has slightly favored Overs on the road at 8-7-1 (53.3%). The Twins have played 6-2-1 to the Over in six of their last nine, but on totals of 8.5 or higher, they’ve gone 7-5 to the Under, which is unsurprising given the totality of their underwhelming offense this year.

The Guardians have gone 19-11-1 to the Under this year, good for the second-highest rate of Unders on the year at 67.7%. That includes a 8-4 split to the Under at home, and the same record on games with totals 8.5 or higher.

Cleveland has gone a staggering 13-2 to the Under in its last 15, a perfect illustration of its extensive hitting struggles.

The wind is also blowing in just slightly (8 mph) and the relatively low temperature (high 50s) and humidity (55%) also favor the Under.

Twins vs Guardians game info

Twins vs Guardians betting preview

Starting pitchers

Bailey Ober (1-0, 1.59 ERA): Ober is a third-year towering right-hander that stands 6'9" and weighs 260 pounds. He pitched to a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last year, significantly improving on his rookie-year finishes of a 4.19 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. In just two starts this year, he is showing further promise (1.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).

Peyton Battenfield (0-2, 4.67 ERA): Battenfield is a 25-year-old rookie who has been thrust into major league action mostly in part due to extensive injuries across the Guardians' rotation (Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, etc.). He surprised many through his first two starts (1.69 ERA) but has gotten a wake-up call in his last two, including his last outing in which he allowed three earned in just two innings of work.

Trend to know

Cleveland has played 13-2 to the Under in its last 15 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs Guardians

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