It’s getaway day at Fenway Park as the Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox close out their three-game set. The Red Sox took the opener 5-4 in extra innings before the Twins responded in Game 2 with a big 10-4 win.
Thursday’s rubber match will see the Twins' Kenta Maeda toe the rubber against the Red Sox's Tanner Houck. Despite the MLB odds showing a high total for this matinee, this might actually be a good day for the pitchers.
I'll tell you why as break down today's Twins vs. Red Sox matchup — and bring you my best free MLB pick.
Twins vs Red Sox odds
Twins vs Red Sox predictions
Kenta Maeda vs. Tanner Houck doesn’t exactly scream "pitcher’s duel," but these two are in a sneaky-good spot to succeed this afternoon.
Let’s start with Maeda. His stuff looked really good in his first start of the season against the Marlins, as he mixed his pitches well and gave up just three hits (surprisingly, none were to Luis Arraez) while striking out nine. He followed that by allowing four runs on eight hits over six innings against the White Sox, where all of the damage in that game was limited to just one inning.
The advanced numbers are also kind to the Minnesota Twins righty: Despite a 4.09 ERA, his expected ERA is a much more impressive 2.71, and he also owns a solid strikeout rate (27.3%) and opponent-expected batting average (.227) while having yet to walk a single batter.
Today, he faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that has been average at best against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 21st in batting average and 15th in OPS.
On the other side, despite a few more walks, Houck has some very similar numbers. The right-hander has been a reliable starter for the Red Sox so far, having yet to allow more than three earned runs or five hits in any of his three 2023 starts.
Houck’s advanced stats also show promise, as the RHP has given up some hard contact this year... but opponents making successful contact has been rare. Houck owns a 2.91 xERA, a .185 opponent xBA, and a .313 opponent expected slugging percentage. Plus, his K rate has been solid, punching out more than a batter an inning.
The Twins’ bats broke out yesterday, but they certainly haven’t been consistent to start the year. Minnesota ranks 22nd in batting average and 23rd in OPS when facing right-handed pitching and has the seventh-highest K rate.
I like this matchup to be low scoring, at least early on, and so I'm taking the five-inning Under.
My best bet: First five Under 5.5 (-128 at FanDuel)
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Twins vs Red Sox moneyline analysis
The Red Sox opened this American League matchup at about -115 home chalk and they have seen the early action, moving to -125 as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning. While the pitching matchup is pretty even, the Red Sox lineup has been slightly better against right-handers and has the comforts of home for an early first pitch.
At 11-7, the Twins lead the AL Central, but yesterday’s 10-4 win halted a four-game losing streak. Pitching has carried the Twinkies to this point, with their staff ranking second in starter ERA and fifth in bullpen ERA.
Meanwhile, life is tough in the AL East for the Red Sox. Their 9-10 record isn’t a terrible one, but that’s good for last place in what is looking like the toughest division in baseball.
I would maybe lean toward the Twins as underdogs here because of their edge in pitching, but with Houck taking the ball for Boston this game really feels like a coin flip. So, I’m staying away from the moneyline in this matinee.
Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup is on the board at 9 and considering I am betting this game will be low scoring in the first five innings, I’d lean toward the full game Under as well.
It helps that it’s not just the starting pitchers in this matchup that are solid — Minnesota’s bullpen ranks fifth in the MLB with a 2.77 ERA and first with a 0.99 WHIP.
The Red Sox aren’t too far behind, ranking 12th in both of those categories. Mix in some inconsistent hitting and I like this one to fall below the number.
Twins vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, April 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, NESN |
Twins vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda (0-2, 4.09 ERA): This is Maeda's third start of the season. He opened the year by limiting the Marlins to one run on three hits while striking out nine, but his next start did not go as well as he surrendered four runs on eight hits to the White Sox.
Tanner Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA): The best way to describe Houck through three starts this season is serviceable. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start... but he hasn't pitched more than five innings either.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 5-2-1 in the Twins' last eight games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Red Sox
