Twins vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Southside Shellacking

The White Sox's lineup borders on elite and they have been especially deadly against Minnesota this season. Will Chicago continue to score with ease in a good matchup vs. the divisional rival Twins? Check out our picks and predictions.

Alistair Corp - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Alistair Corp • Publishing Editor
Jul 20, 2021 • 20:04 ET • 5 min read
Yoan Moncada Chicago White Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A four-game series in the AL Central will wrap up on Wednesday evening as the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox close out their latest clash.

Division-leading Chicago has been red-hot lately as it continues to sit atop the AL Central, while Minnesota's .500 ball in recent weeks has kept it out of the basement, just barely.

Which team will get the edge in the series finale? Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Twins vs. White Sox on July 21. 

Twins vs White Sox game info

Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-CH, BSN

Twins vs White Sox odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

As of 5:15 p.m. ET, Chicago is out to a -148 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -130 and making a pit stop at -140. The White Sox are attracting 78 percent of moneyline bets and 85 percent of moneyline dollars. "It's all White Sox money so far. We'll be big Twins fans," TwinSpires trading anaylst Zachary Lucas said. The total toggled between 9.5 and 9 and is now 9 (Over -112), with 68 percent of bets/64 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Twins vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Michael Pineda (3-5, 4.11 ERA): The towering starter has struggled in his third season with the Twins. Pineda currently has his highest ERA in three years, while allowing the most hits and home runs and striking out the fewest batters per nine innings during his time in the Twin Cities. His most recent start came against these same White Sox, when he gave up 12 hits and five earned runs across just 5 1-3 innings. 

Dylan Cease (7-5, 4.15 ERA): The young righty is making his 20th start of the year, already easily a career-high, and has been strong in his third big leagues season. Cease is averaging a career-high 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, with career-lows in walks, home runs, and hits per nine innings. This will be his fourth start against the Twins in 2021, as he enters 1-1 with one no-decision.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Twins: Byron Buxton CF (Out), Joe Harvey RP (Out), Randy Dobnak RP (Out), Derek Law RP (Out), Jake Cave RF (Out), Royce Lewis SS (Out).
White Sox: Luis Robert CF (Out), Jake Lamb 3B (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Yasmani Grandal C (Out), Evan Marshall RP (Out), Nick Madrigal 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Twins and White Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox.

Moneyline pick

Unsurprisingly, it hasn't been pretty for Minnesota against Chicago thus far in 2021. At the midway point of their current four-game series in Chicago, the Twins are 3-11 against the White Sox this season, with two of three wins coming by just a single run. Even worse, the White Sox have nearly doubled the Twins' runs in the season series, 98-53.

For one of the worst teams in baseball at limiting their opponents' production, it won't get any easier for the Twins in the near future. On Wednesday they'll turn to Michael Pineda, who returned from a three-week absence in early July against the White Sox but has not made another start since. Between shaky health and Pineda's name being floated often ahead of the trade deadline, Minnesota's starter is unlikely to deliver a rare gem against a White Sox team bordering on elite at the plate. 

When Pineda bows out, around the five-inning mark in the best-case scenario, he'll hand the ball off to a poor bullpen, as the Twins' relievers boast the 25th highest ERA in the Majors as a unit.

Minnesota snuck away with a win in the opener but missed a great opportunity for another victory when it came up against Reynaldo Lopez in game two. Lopez did enough to keep Chicago in it, and now regular service will resume as Cease presents a considerable advantage over Pineda. 

It's a lopsided matchup with plenty of evidence this season to back it up, and Chicago is the American League's best home team. Take the Sox to finish off the series with a win.

PREDICTION: White Sox (-126)

Over/Under pick

Chicago and Minnesota may be on opposite ends of the AL Central, but hitting has not been an issue for either. The White Sox are among the league's best lineups, while the Twins are an above-average team at the plate in their own right. As one would expect, their meetings this year have sparked fireworks, with 15 games in the season series boasting an average of nearly 11 runs per game. 

Minnesota's penchant for bleeding runs, with its 5.49 nine-inning average the third-worst in the Majors, makes it a trusted Over bet, as it sits 56-34-4 O/U in 2021. Both starters in this one should aid the Over, too.

Pineda has been poor against the White Sox this season, with two starts under his belt. In both, he went 5 1-3 innings, giving up an average of eight hits and four earned runs while striking out just 11 of the 43 batters he faced. Cease, meanwhile, struggled in his last outing against the Twins. In that one, an early July meeting in the Twin Cities, he made it through 5 1-3 innings while giving up six hits and six earned runs in an 8-5 loss.

Trust these two teams' trend to continue and take the Over.

PREDICTION: Over 9 (-120)

Twins vs White Sox betting card

  • White Sox (-126)
  • Over 9 (-120)

Picks made on 7/20/2021 at 6:00 p.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Alistair Corp Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Alistair has been working as a publishing editor on the Covers content team since January 2021. In addition to his work as an editor, he helps cover the NFL, the NBA, Formula 1, and soccer. Prior to joining Covers, he worked as a freelance writer covering the NFL.

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