The Twins rocked the Yankees on Thursday night for their third straight win, and they’ll look to keep the good times rolling into the weekend when they take on the Bombers at Yankee Stadium on Friday night. With a tougher pitcher on the other side of this one in Nestor Cortes, might we expect a different result?
Let’s break down Twins vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions for Friday, April 14.
Twins vs Yankees odds
Twins vs Yankees predictions
The Twins offense exploded in the first inning against Jhony Brito, but they’re in a much different spot on Friday against Nestor Cortes. The left-hander has been exceptional going on two years now, posting a 2.61 ERA to this point in the season with a decent-enough 3.88 xERA backing him up.
While many may see that coupled with Cortes’ strikeout numbers and hit the panic button, I’m not all that worried. After all, Cortes is actually allowing fewer hard-hit balls per batted ball event to this point and has coughed up just two barrels in 10 1/3 innings. Furthermore, we’re talking about 10 1/3 innings! The veteran has had to face competent lineups in the Phillies and Orioles and definitely looked to be a bit more settled in his second outing of the year.
Helping out the cause, the Twins have hit just .233 against lefties so far this season with an unsightly 27.3% strikeout rate within the split. They’re currently seventh-worst in strikeouts for the entire season.
I think Cortes will look a little more like Cortes on Friday. With that, I’m backing the Yankees against a pitcher who we know little about in Louie Varland. The prospect hasn’t looked up to the task of facing big-league pitching to this point and allowed four homers last year in 26 innings. That’s not going to bode well for him.
My best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+116 at FanDuel)
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Twins vs Yankees moneyline analysis
You can actually find the Yankees as low as -175 if you do a little shopping, which is an excellent price if I do say so myself. I think oddsmakers are severely underrating Cortes coming off of two so-so starts when in reality there’s little wrong with him.
Minnesota’s struggles against lefties and its struggles in making contact are going to play right into Cortes’ hands here. He’s been a big strikeout arm for the last couple of seasons, and this should get him right back on track to post another K-rate close to 30%. On top of that, Carlos Correa has struggled and Edouard Julien — who was brought up to help in a pinch — is a lefty.
I just don’t like the look of the Twins’ lineup, which is much better suited to hit righties. I’d give the Yankees a larger implied shot at winning this game.
Twins vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
I would actually think about taking the Over here despite what I’ve said about Cortes being in a good spot. The fact is, the incredibly warm temperatures in New York should have the ball flying on Friday night. With the amount of contact he’s given up this season, it’s not unfathomable that he could allow a rare home run.
On the other side of this, though, I really fear the worst for Varland. He allowed four round-trippers in just 21 innings last season and 22 hits in the process. This Yankees offense has been solid in the barrel and exit velocity departments and should come out with a vengeance after being torched on Thursday.
Trend bettors should note that the Over is 4-1 in the Twins' last five games vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in the Yankees' last five games when their opponent allows two or fewer runs in their previous game.
Twins vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, April 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, YES |
Twins vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Louie Varland (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The No. 10 prospect in the Twins’ system according to MLB.com, Varland is being called up on Friday after five innings of one-run ball in his first start of the season at Triple-A. He had a 3.81 ERA in five starts for the Twins at the big-league level last year.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (2-0, 2.61 ERA): The left-hander made his first All-Star team last season, and it was well-deserved with a low 2.44 ERA and elite 2.70 xERA. He’s started off the season with a 2.61 ERA in 10 1/3 innings, but strikeouts have been hard to come by.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Twins are 12-44 in their last 56 games at Yankee Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees
