The Twins rolled into Yankee Stadium this weekend and took two games from the Yankees, only to see the home team respond with a convincing 6-1 victory on Saturday. Now, New York will look to secure the series split on Sunday with its ace on the hill in Gerrit Cole.
Without further ado, let’s break down Twins vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, April 16.
Twins vs Yankees odds
Twins vs Yankees predictions
The Minnesota Twins’ acquisition of Pablo Lopez this winter might have been the most slept-on addition of the offseason. The right-hander has followed up a stellar 2022 which saw him post a 3.75 ERA in grand fashion here in 2023 with three excellent starts.
Lopez has struck out a ridiculous 36.6% of batters he’s faced this season, which puts him in the Top 7% of all pitchers, and he’s coupled that with another year of walking guys less often than the league average and just three runs charged to his name in 14 2/3 innings.
The righty’s affinity for the punchout has him in an excellent spot against the New York Yankees, who rank seventh-worst in strikeout rate. His ability to limit walks will help him keep traffic off the bases against a team which loves to reach via the free pass.
Gerrit Cole is on the other side of this duel and has an even better matchup against a Twins side which is striking out at the fourth-highest clip in baseball. You just couldn’t script a better situation for the veteran, and with that I’m grabbing the Under here.
Both pitchers have struck out guys at over a 30% clip, and both have limited the damage in the power department. Against two all-or-nothing offenses, they will feast.
My best bet: Under 7 (-110 at Caesars)
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Twins vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Yankees opened up here around -165 favorites, and that’s exactly where they’re sticking at the moment, with some books moving them to -170. DraftKings is reporting that 88% of the moneyline bets have come in on New York, and it has commanded a whopping 97% of the handle.
So, there’s a clear side where the public and the pros are aligned. I’d tend to agree when you consider the Yankees are actually a bit better at making contact here, and will have the stronger pitcher.
While Lopez’s numbers have been sublime, too, we should consider that he faced the Royals, Marlins and White Sox to get here. The Yankees will not only represent a step up in competition, they will represent a massive one. I think the Yankees are clearly the side you want to take here.
Twins vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
There’s actually been a little movement towards the Over here, with the line opening at seven runs and around even money to hit the Over before a 10-cent move to make it a -110 bet. That’s likely because DraftKings is reporting that 66% of bets on the total and 71% of the handle is on the Over.
While I agree that both teams can sock the ball – and the Yankees are clearly a very strong team with a .202 ISO to rank third in baseball – I think Lopez is a little bit better than we’re giving him credit for here. Surely no one likes the Twins’ offense against Cole, so the public is likely banking on Lopez crashing back to Earth. I wouldn’t bet on that here.
Twins vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, April 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally North, YES |
Twins vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.35 ERA): Now 27, Lopez comes over from the Marlins after throwing 180 innings last season in 32 starts. In addition to being one of the most durable arms in the league, he’s kept his numbers very steady for the last three years, posting an ERA (and expected ERA) under four runs yet again in 2022.
Gerrit Cole (3-0, 1.40 ERA): The veteran started off the season with six shutout innings against the Giants only to work backwards in his next two outings, allowing one to the Phillies and two to the Guardians. Still, while he struck out only three pesky Cleveland hitters, his strikeout rate sits at 31%.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 8-1-2 in the Twins’ last 11 games after allowing five or more runs in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees
