The Los Angeles Angels will try to put a weird weekend behind them when they open a four-game set with the visiting Chicago White Sox on Monday night, and Game 1 might be an underrated pitcher’s duel.
The Pale Hose will hand the ball to ace Dylan Cease, who's starting to pitch like the guy who finished second in American League Cy Young voting in 2023. Meanwhile, the Angels counter with Reid Detmers, who might be one of the hottest pitchers in the AL.
Are Cease and the White Sox undervalued? Or is this pitching matchup being overlooked in terms of the total? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in our free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Angels.
White Sox vs Angels odds
White Sox vs Angels predictions
The Los Angeles Angels are coming off one of the weirdest series in recent memory. The Angels outscored the Colorado Rockies 32-12 over the weekend, which included a 25-1 beatdown that was so bad the Rockies handed over Mike Moustakas in what felt like the spoils of war. But somehow, they lost the series.
One way to move on from that is getting a solid performance from your starting pitching, and the Halos will hope that’s exactly what they get while handing the ball to left-hander Reid Detmers on Monday.
The 23-year-old strikeout artist who's known for his electric fastball has been solid in 2023 with a 4.07 expected ERA and a strikeout rate that ranks in the 80th percentile, and he's arguably going through the best stretch of his young career.
Detmers is pitching to a 0.96 ERA while limiting opponents to a .154 batting average, and he's striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings over 18 2/3 innings of work across his last three starts. And it’s not like he’s been facing off against easy opposition. His last two starts have come against the Dodgers and Rangers.
He'll get a great chance to keep his streak going against a White Sox team that's nowhere near as potent as it used to be when facing southpaws. Chicago ranks 18th in batting average, 19th in OPS, and 21st in wRC+ when digging in against southpaws in 2023. Mix in the 12th-highest strikeout rate, and Detmers is primed for another strong outing.
Countering Detmers is Chicago's young ace Dylan Cease. The 2022 runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award is finding his good form after a rocky start to the season.
Cease owns a 4.39 expected ERA, and he's in the 77th percentile in strikeout rate. But he’s been a different pitcher in June. The right-hander is pitching to a 2.38 ERA while limiting opponents to a .185 batting average, and he's striking out 12.7 batters per nine over four starts during the month.
The Angels boast strong numbers against right-handers, but they're a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to strikeout rate. When Cease faced the Angels in 2022 he shut them out over seven innings on just two hits while striking out eight.
The total of 8.5 is too high for a pitching matchup of this caliber, but I want to take two shaky bullpens out of the equation. I’m looking at the Under on 4.5 over the first five innings instead.
My best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-125 at bet365)
White Sox vs Angels same-game parlay
Under 4.5 first five innings
Detmers Over 17.5 outs
Detmers Over 6.5 strikeouts
Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts
It should come as no surprise that this same-game parlay will be pitcher centric. So of course we start it off with the Under 4.5 over the first five innings.
While I like both pitchers to be successful, Detmers clearly gets the easier of the two matchups, and he's been receiving a bit of a longer leash lately. He's faced nearly 24 batters per start over his last six appearances while throwing 95-plus pitches in five of those outings. I’m betting he completes six innings for the third straight start and am adding Over 17.5 outs recorded.
The long outing for Detmers means there will be plenty of opportunities to rack up strikeouts in this matchup. The southpaw has recorded exactly eight strikeouts in each of his last three starts while registering a 33.8% strikeout rate. So let’s add Detmers to go for 7-plus strikeouts.
But let’s not end the strikeout train there. Let’s go lucky sevens and add Cease to get 7-plus strikeouts as well. Cease has hit that mark in four of his last five starts while recording a 36.1% strikeout rate over that span. If all of these hit we earn a nice +425 payout.
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White Sox vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
It feels like Cease had been a little undervalued during his last few starts, but we're starting to see a return to the norm. Cease and the White Sox opened this American League matchup as roughly +120 road underdogs. Since then they've moved down to the +115 range, with the Angels sitting at -135.
With the latest move toward the White Sox, the price may be low enough to lean toward the home team. Detmers faces the easier task when it comes to the opposing lineups. Cease needs to go against an Angels team that ranks fifth in OPS and fourth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers in 2023.
Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 8.5, and that’s where it sits as of Monday afternoon. That total isn't taking into account the current forms of these starting pitchers. I prefer the five-inning total because both the bullpens involved can be a little shaky at times, but there's still value on the Under at this number.
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Trend to know
The Under is 13-5-3 during Chicago's last 21 overall and 5-1 in the Angels' last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Angels
White Sox vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, June 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.22 ERA): Cease has found his top form. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts.
Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.02 ERA): Detmers is trying to follow in Cease's footsteps. The lefty allowed two earned runs in his last three starts while limiting opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 outings.
