The Chicago White Sox are in freefall, having lost four games in a row and six of their last seven.
The Tampa Bay Rays took the first game of the series in a 6-3 victory after scoring four runs in the bottom of the first. That ended up being all they needed on the day, although they added a few more for insurance.
Saturday’s matchup doesn’t feature such a drastic polarity in starting pitching, and the odds reflect that. Dylan Cease is on the mound for Chicago, while Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for Tampa Bay.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, June 4.
White Sox vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Rays opened -105 but quickly moved to -125 across most books. The White Sox can be had from +100 to +105. The total opened at 7 across all books and hasn’t moved.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 6/4/2022 at 9:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Rays game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, June 4, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-CHI, Bally Sports
White Sox vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (4-2, 3.69 ERA): Cease has been electric for the White Sox this season. After a solid showing a year ago (13-7, 3.91 ERA), he’s done nothing but improve in his fourth year in the rotation. His 2.62 xERA is a strong indicator of future success, as are his 2.87 FIP and 3.04 xFIP. His 12.75 KK/9 ratio is elite and his 4.8% barrel rate isn’t bad. He’s only getting better and is still only 26 years old.
Drew Rasmussen (5-2, 3.47 ERA): Rasmussen has quietly put up some really good numbers in 2022 for the Rays. He was effective a year ago, too, with a 2.44 ERA across 20 games (10 starts). This season, he has a 3.76 xERA, a 3.56 FIP, and a 3.33 xFIP. His 5.3% barrel rate is pretty good, too. He profiles as an above-average starting pitcher with nothing particularly glaring about his profile.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
White Sox: Tim Anderson SS (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out), Garrett Crochet RP (Out).
Rays: Taylor Walls SS (Questionable), Andrew Kittredge RP (Questionable), Wander Franco SS (Out), Brandon Lowe 2B (Out), JT Chargois RP (Out), Chris Mazza RP (Out), Peter Fairbanks RP (Out), Nick Anderson RP (Out), Peter Fairbanks RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 Game 2s of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Rays
White Sox vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
We backed the Rays against the run line (-1.5) in yesterday’s preview due to a large discrepancy in the starting pitchers. That bet paid off nicely, so let’s see if we can make it two in a row in this series.
Yesterday’s handicap focused mainly on the futility of White Sox starter Vince Velasquez. The Rays lineup has been ice cold, but a matchup with the hittable Velasquez is a remedy for all ills. That ended up proving true, as the Rays found a 6-3 win, thanks primarily to plating four runs in the first inning.
Cease is a much different case. He profiles as one of the better young pitchers in the league and his 2.62 xERA and 12.75 KK/9 ratio are both elite. Any team can have success against Velasquez, but that doesn’t mean this Rays lineup will be lighting up the scoreboard on Saturday. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 10 days — this is the coldest lineup in the league.
Despite being on a losing skid, the White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 Game 2s of a series. The Rays’ lineup has better numbers on the season, but their recent performance has me concerned and I believe that evens the playing field. Cease gives the White Sox the starting pitching advantage, and that’s enough for me to look their way as the slight underdog.
Prediction: White Sox moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
I’m looking at the Under in this spot.
Cease is an electric young starting pitcher with top-notch peripherals. As mentioned, over the last 10 days, the Rays rank dead last in the MLB in OPS (.555), and are batting just .190 in that time frame. We have every reason to expect a low-scoring output from Tampa Bay on Saturday in a tough matchup.
Rasmussen has been solid in his own right with a 3.33 xFIP and overall decent profile. The White Sox haven’t been much better in recent days, ranking 25th in both OPS (.665) and wOBA (.296). Chicago is down a few key pieces in the lineup (Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez) and it’s showing on the field.
Chicago’s bullpen (4.32 ERA) is the lone dark spot in handicapping the total. The Rays may help balance that out, however, with a 3.19 bullpen ERA.
All signs point to the Under in this spot.
Prediction: Under 7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
I was looking to target Cease props for my best bet, but it looks like the books are wise to the fact that he should see success in this matchup. For example, his strikeout prop is listed at 6.5 with heavy juice on the Over. I don’t see any meat left on the bone in his props and therefore see that the books are wise in eliminating value for attacking this game from that angle.
Instead, I’ll be targeting the Under. I don’t mind the first five innings Under at 3.5 and will likely be playing that as well. However, I think there’s more value in the number when playing the whole game Under 7.
Cease’s 2.62 xERA and impressive peripherals should play well against the MLB’s coldest lineup. Rasmussen is an effective young starter and faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 25th in OPS and wOBA over the last 10 days.
Give me the Under.
Pick: Under 7 (-110 at BetMGM)
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