The Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game set at Fenway Park on Friday night.
These have been two of the most disappointing teams in the American League through the first month of the season and will look to turn things around. Oddsmakers expect the Red Sox to prevail tonight with MLB betting lines opening with Boston as a -160 home favorite.
Here are our best free White Sox vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for May 6,.
White Sox vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board in the neighborhood of -160 for the Red Sox with the Over/Under at 8.5. Early money came in on Boston, and as of 1 p.m. ET, this line is bouncing between -165 and -175. The total has stayed steady at 8.5 and is currently juiced towards the Under at -120.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Red Sox predictions
- Prediction: Red Sox ML (-165)
- Prediction: Over 8.5 (+100)
- Best bet: Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Picks made on 5/6/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Friday, May 6, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
White Sox vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.51 ERA): The veteran right-hander has been very effective to start the season, pitching to a 0.94 WHIP with a .218 OBA in five starts. In his previous outing last Saturday, he allowed just three hits and fanned seven batters through seven innings of shutout ball against the Orioles.
The veteran went 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts for Boston last year.
Vince Velasquez (1-2, 4.58 ERA): Velasquez might be one of the weaker links in Chicago's rotation (along with Dallas Keuchel) but he's coming off an excellent performance where he limited the Angels to four hits and zero runs through 5 2-3 innings.
The 29-year-old has a 1.47 WHIP in 17 2-3 innings this year, nearly identical to his 1.48 WHIP in 94 1-3 innings with Philadelphia and San Diego last season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
White Sox: Yoan Moncada 3B (Probable), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Andrew Vaughn OF (Out), Yermin Mercedes 1B (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out), Garrett Crochet RP (Out).
Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez OF (Questionable), Josh Taylor RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The White Sox are 3-10 in their last 13 games versus a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Red Sox
White Sox vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Continuing to struggle, the Red Sox have lost nine of their last 12 contests to fall to 10-16 on the year.
Meanwhile, the White Sox have won three in a row and are coming off back-to-back wins against their cross-town rivals the Cubs. But they're still two games below .500, which is a disappointing start for a team that entered the season with the fifth-best odds to win the World Series.
A big reason for that has been their poor play at the plate with the White Sox just 24th in the majors with an OPS of .631. Chicago has really missed slugger Eloy Jimenez (out until at least late June after undergoing hamstring surgery) while Joe Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, and Luis Robert have all struggled after highly-productive 2021 campaigns.
The Red Sox have also been ice-cold at the dish and are 26th in the bigs with an OPS of .626. However, they should have the better option on the mound today in Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi has a sparking 2.51 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts and while he is likely to regress from those numbers, he should still be better than Chicago starter Vince Velasquez. Velasquez is coming off a strong start, but over the last two seasons, he went just 4-10 with a 6.10 ERA, 5.43 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP in 128 1-3 innings.
In a battle between two struggling Sox teams, we'll take the home side with the more reliable starter.
Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (-165 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under is extremely tough to figure out because both teams are underachieving at the plate while both starters are overachieving on the mound.
The analytics and long-term track records would indicate that the Over is the call, but the recent play of both teams would strongly point towards the Under. Ultimately we're putting less emphasis on a smaller sample size and leaning towards the analytics and history in this one.
Eovaldi has a 2.51 ERA this year but his expected ERA of 3.74 is much more in line with his numbers from the last two years (3.75 ERA in 2021 and 3.72 ERA in 2020). He also allows a hard-hit rate of 44.9%, which is bad news against a White Sox lineup that looks poised to break out. Chicago is third in the majors in hard-hit rate (44.2%) and expected slugging percentage (.496).
That said, Velasquez's analytics are even uglier with the right-hander pitching to an expected ERA of 6.23 (almost identical to his 6.30 ERA last year) with a hard-hit rate of 49.1%. Expect at least one of these talented lineups to have success tonight, and that should be enough to push this game Over the total.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
We mentioned that the Red Sox haven't been hitting well as a team, but the heart of their lineup with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez has been mashing. Bogaerts has been leading the way for Boston, slashing .354/.404/.500 and racking up 48 total bases in 25 games.
The All-Star shortstop has always hit the ball extremely well at Fenway, boasting a career slugging percentage of .498 at home compared to .422 on the road, and he has a whopping .610 slugging percentage at home this season.
We're expecting some major regression for Velasquez tonight, which likely means success for Bogaerts. Take the Over 1.5 on his total bases
Pick: Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
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