AL Central rivals Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins square off in the finale of this three-game series.
Chicago enters Thursday afternoon hoping to end an eight-game losing streak and will be looking to avoid a series sweep with a victory over Minnesota.
Can the Twins break out the brooms? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the White Sox vs. Twins for this Thursday afternoon AL Central contest.
White Sox vs Twins best odds
White Sox vs Twins picks and predictions
Lucas Giolito has the chance to finish his disappointing season strong, and we’re going to back him to do just that.
The talking heads promoted Giolito as a potential Cy Young candidate and maybe he would have had things broken differently. As his advanced metrics suggest, the White Sox hurler has probably been supremely unlucky.
He’s striking out 9.83 hitters per nine and faces a Minnesota offense missing a number of key offensive players with a 22% strikeout rate that has given starter Louie Varland just seven total runs of support over his three starts.
The Chicago righty has pitched okay over his last four starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of those games. The White Sox offense scored seven runs over those four contests, but seasonally offered 4.68 runs of support when Giolito took the hill.
Minnesota slashes .250/.319/.405 this season vs right-handed pitching and .172/.245/.247 slash line with 26 strikeouts and two bombs over 93 career at-bats against the White Sox hurler.
Varland is riding the struggle bus and if it weren’t for injuries to the Twins staff, he’d likely be out in the ‘pen getting adjusted to the bright lights for 2023. He allowed a pair of bombs in his last home start against the Angels and has allowed four bombs over 16 frames.
The White Sox bats have slashed .253/.304/.377 this season vs righties with a 20% strikeout rate, subpar wRC+ of 94, and a mediocre .124 ISO. Maybe the White Sox don't have the big bats to take advantage of Varland's hangers, but they will still slap him around the yard Thursday.
Finally, the White Sox are 6-4-0 this season when Giolito takes the hill as the away favorite and 3-1 on the run line over his past four starts. Look for Giolito to own the Twins as Chicago covers Thursday's run line.
My best bet: White Sox run line -1.5 (+150 at DraftKings)
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White Sox vs Twins moneyline analysis
If it weren’t for the White Sox, the Twins would likely be looking to end a long losing streak of their own, but somehow Chicago has played worse and here we are.
Giolito has to be disappointed with his results this season considering the lofty expectations many held for the right-hander.
He’ll likely see Minnesota again next week in Chicago, and he’ll want a strong finish to a rough campaign. It doesn’t get much better facing a team you’ve owned to end a losing streak, and Giolito has absolutely owned this collection of Minnesota lumber.
The -120 ML is absolutely in play, and Chicago is 41-36 as the away side this season and 26-18-2 as away favorites.
White Sox vs Twins Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 7.5 and it will likely remain there. The moneyline odds don’t reflect a dominant performance by Chicago, and maybe this number is too low for Thursday.
For all of Giolito’s misfortune, he hasn’t been unhittable this season. Minnesota may struggle against the White Sox chucker, but it does have some big bats in the lineup, and Giolito is expected to allow just over three runs.
Varland hasn’t had it easy, and it won’t be any easier against a Chicago side offering nearly five runs per game of support when its ace is on the mound. Varland has allowed two or more runs in each of his major league starts and will more than likely surrender a few more on Thursday.
Neither bullpen has performed especially well. Chicago posts a 4.09 team ERA while Minnesota isn’t much better with its 3.88 ERA and its lack of success will allow the offenses to push this one over the total.
White Sox vs Twins trend to know
The White Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins
White Sox vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, September 29, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports North |
Starting pitchers
Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.05 ERA): He’s given up 14 earned runs with 32 strikeouts over his last 27 frames. The former Cy Young candidate has a 4.37 xERA and 3.61 xFIP, and his 3.73 away xFIP suggests Giolito has been very unlucky this season.
Louie Varland (0-2, 5.06 ERA): The rookie hurler has given up nine earned runs with 13 Ks over 16 innings. Varland sports a 5.20 xERA with a 4.38 xFIP, but his 5.47 home xFIP suggests Varland's numbers could actually be a bit worse than they already are.
White Sox vs Twins latest injuries
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White Sox vs Twins weather
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