World Series Betting Preview: Dodgers vs Yankees For All the Marbles

It's as much of a banner of a World Series as you can have and a cause for celebration amongst TV Executives. Two of the most decorated sports franchises will meet to decide a world champion when the New York Yankees face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

It's a rematch from yesteryear. The Dodgers and Yankees met in the 1981 World Series when the Yankees won their fifth championship. It's also the most common World Series matchup in history, occurring 14 times.

In Yankees' terms, it's been far too long. The Bronx Boys haven't won a Fall Classic since the last time they played in it in 2009 — that's over 15 years. That drought is not close for LA, which last won the World Series during the pandemic-shortened season of 2022. 

Let's visit how these two mammoths stack up against each other, break down the World Series odds, and find the best bet in my MLB picks for this seven-game series. 

Yankees vs Dodgers Series Odds

To Win: Dodgers -125 | Yankees +105
Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 +155 | Yankees +1.5 -185
Total Runs: Over 51.5 -110 | Under 51.5 -110

Yankees vs Dodgers series preview

New York Yankees breakdown

Strengths

In a word: Power. 

In a sentence: Star power of the likes is the only combo that could exceed or match the tandem of stars the Los Angeles Dodgers have. If Giancarlo Stanton keeps hitting like this, it's not even up for debate.

The player with the most 2024 postseason home runs in this series is not Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or Juan Soto — it's Stanton. That is one of the titling factors in this series, too. We don't know the exact order of pitchers that the Dodgers will throw out, but there's good reason to suspect they'll be prone to giving up the long ball. 

We've discussed a straightforward combo for opposing pitchers against the New York Yankees all season. We've been consistent in betting on it, and they've been consistent in attacking them. That's pitchers who throw a heavy dosage of fastballs and have hard-hit issues. Two of the Dodger's frontline starters, Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, fit the bill. Flaherty enters with a fastball clip under 50% and a barrel rate below the league average. Things are worse for Yamamoto, with barrel and hard-hit rates in both the bottom 30% of baseball. The last of the starters that should be mentioned is Walker Buehler. We all know how rough things have been for him.

The Dodgers have yet to encounter a team that can match its power and quality swings all postseason. The Yankees can. Beyond the power aspect, what's changed for New York this season, as opposed to last year, has been its ability to get into positions in counts to demonstrate that power. It's been one of the most selective swinging teams in the sport this season, and a massive shift in approach from the past few seasons has paid off hugely. 

Weaknesses

This bullpen has to regress, at least some, right? 

That Yankees positional group has been good throughout the year, but what we've seen this postseason has been otherworldly. At one point in these playoffs, it had gone 17 innings, giving up just one run. It's good; it's just not that good. My projections graded them out as the 5th best bullpen in baseball this season, but it has pitched like the best throughout the playoffs, even with a bumpy end to the Guardians series. How much can tilt games if even slight regression occurs? Particularly noteworthy is that a walk-friendly pen had the benefit of facing two teams that swung freely in the postseason. That's the antithesis of the Dodgers.

There's also the defense. Nobody wants to talk about defensive statistics because they aren't sexy, but the Yankees haven't been great much of the season. New York easily led all playoff teams in errors per game with a .57 average.

That was one of baseball's worst, as they finished above just four teams.

Those issues have perhaps been more present in the postseason at first base. There was a rush to return a still-injured Anthony Rizzo into the lineup for his bat and experience. However, that has made him look a little uncomfortable when playing the position from this eye test. When Rizzo hasn't been in the field, New York has been unsettled at that spot, resorting to, at one point, playing Jon Berti in his first career game ever at first base in the postseason. 

These are nitpicking, minor things, but the margins are thin in the playoffs and even smaller in the World Series.

X factor: Clay Holmes

You could argue for Luke Weaver in this spot, and, in my view, one's success is directly correlated to the others. But Holmes edges things for me because if he is doing his job, then Weaver and his stellar play are put in the best possible spot to continue. 

The move to a high-leverage reliever position and away from the closer spot has done wonders, and by large, he looked like a pitcher in control of things this postseason. If he's able to consistently set up Weaver for success with minimal outs to get and limited stress, it will do wonders for New York. The Dodgers will grind the Yankees starters like no team this postseason has. They are also going to unearth some of the cracks in the bullpen. Two of the best in that pen must be their best, and it starts with Holmes. 

Los Angeles Dodgers breakdown

Strengths

The biggest strength when it comes to this matchup is unique. 

The Dodgers are such a talented team, and there are so many strengths that it's tough to pick just one — hitting, pitching baserunning. They have a little bit of it all, and their payroll tells you why that's the case. However, the answer here is Shohei Ohtani. But it's more than his presence. It's the fact that he's been better than Aaron Judge in the postseason, and if that happens in this series, you get the sense that for the first time in the playoffs, the Yankees will truly miss the Aaron Judge of the regular season.

I don't need to revisit the Judge postseason struggles. If you've watched baseball, you've heard about them. He was able to flip the narrative a bit with a massive three-run homer in game three of the ALCS, but it's still a story. It's a story that's been at least somewhat overplayed, but it becomes bigger here. Ohtani has produced some uneven results this postseason. However, the numbers have still been substantial: .286/.434/.500. He's actually barreled up more pitches than he did in the regular season at a clip of just over 24%. A feat that's hard to believe after his historical 50/50 season. 

The biggest problem for Judge in this postseason is his barrel rate, which has dropped from an insane 26.9% rate in the regular season to a 15% rate in the postseason. The good thing for Judge is that the shape of his postseason struggles overall has been different. That points to those issues being more random or poor in variance rather than folding in the pressure-packed moments. 

The Ohtani over Judge factor is only a significant strength if the current pattern continues. Having Ohtani on your team is always a strength because he's Shohei Ohtani, but Judge playing below standard makes the advantage feel much more outsized. If both play to their capabilities, it's closer to a wash than anything. However, if the current form holds, one MVP would comfortably outplay the other. That's difficult for any team to overcome, even one as talented as the Yankees. 

Weaknesses

The most straightforward answer is starting pitching. And for all intents and purposes, it may be the only real significant one in this matchup. 

I mentioned it above, but this starting rotation has been inconsistent much of the season, at least after the attrition in injuries. 
Tyler Glasnow went out for the season after another season-ending shoulder surgery a few months ago. For my money, that was one of the more significant losses for any team, given what was left and what he offered for a starting rotation. I'd see things in this series quite differently if it was Gerrit Cole opposing Glasnow in game one instead of the expected matchup of Glasnow against Flaherty.

That inconsistency that I mentioned has held in the playoffs. We're talking about a pitching staff in its entirety that had a 33-inning shut-out streak but still, somehow, managed a staff ERA that eclipsed four. It's almost inconceivable how hot and cold you can be, but the historical context of the regular season tells us the former is likely more of a fair representation of these three starters. That said, you can probably expect anything in this World Series and not be shocked, but I'll put my marker down and say this:

There's a clear advantage in the head-to-head pitching matchups in this series, no matter how you slice it. The Yankees' staff is far from unhittable, but you have more assurances than three starters that all have a barrel rate in the bottom 20% of baseball against the best home run hitting team in the sport. 

X factor: Tommy Edman

11 NLCS RBIs and an NLCS MVP. It's hard to believe the Dodgers could have imagined this when they acquired Tommy Edman over the Summer, but it's what we just witnessed. He became the third player in baseball to have 11 hits and 11 RBIs in a single postseason series, the first one since David Ortiz in 2004.

There's not a ton to say here. The numbers speak for themselves more efficiently than any words I'd write. If the Yankees can't find a way to quiet Edman, then defeating the Dodgers becomes much more difficult. You couldn't find a player between these two teams that fit the mold of an "X factor" better than him.

Yankees vs Dodgers best bet

Pick: Giancarlo Stanton World Series MVP (+800 at DraftKings)

There have been two players that have hit eight homers in the postseason and won the World Series. They are also recent: Adolis Garcia for the Texas Rangers and Corey Seager for the Los Angeles Dodgers. One won the MVP, while the other finished second in the voting. Stanton is two away. Two homers in this series (with a New York World Series win) would give him just as much justification to win this award as any of his competitors. I bet this at +3,000 before the ALCS and added a little more.

One of my favorite things about betting in this market is the mixed bag of winners that it produces. You don't have to be the superstar on the team, nor do you have to play a particular position. Stanton has the prerequisite coming into this series. Not only did he hit the blast, but nearly all of them were in the clutch. Each of his six long balls came in the sixth inning or later, and three tied or gave New York the lead. I can't ignore it at this price. 

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